Patrick Mahomes’ left knee is apparently sturdier than Travis Kelce’s investments.
The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback made his triumphant return from injury in an impressive win Monday, doing damage through the air and on the ground.
That effort has Kansas City climbing from an opening spread of -5.5 to -6.5 when it hosts the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football in Week 2.
My Colts vs. Chiefs prediction measures the contrasting Week 1 results for these teams, uncovering an edge in my best NFL picks for Sept. 20.
TOP PICK
Colts vs Chiefs prediction: Under 46.5
The Indianapolis Colts found themselves trailing big to Baltimore in Week 1, forcing them to play faster and abandon the run (37.7% run rate).
The Colts need this attack to flow through running back Jonathan Taylor, who had a great opener despite being invisible in the fourth quarter.
Quarterback Daniel Jones struggled against Baltimore’s blitz, taking two sacks and seven QB hits while completing 19 of 31 passes and averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt. He was the most pressured QB in Week 1.
Jones posted similar numbers against the Kansas City Chiefs' blitz-happy defense in Week 12 last season. Meanwhile, Kansas City wrecked Denver’s top-rated protection for four sacks and the eighth-best pressure rate on MNF.
As for the Chiefs’ offense, Eric Bieniemy ran at the fourth-highest rate Monday, picking up 5.8 yards per carry and eating up almost 34 minutes of TOP with a patient approach.
COVERS INTEL: Running success leads to shorter gains with the clock moving, which helps keep scores low. Both teams ran well in Week 1. Kansas City ranked No. 1 in EPA per handoff and No. 9 in Run DVOA. Indianapolis was No. 5 in EPA per handoff and No. 3 in Run DVOA.
Colts vs Chiefs combo
With two run-centric offenses trying to grind out gains on the ground and control pace and clock, the Under holds the best value on Sunday Night Football. Indy will also have a tough time against this blitz-heavy defense from Kansas City. Mix in the potential for rainstorms, and points will be tough to come by.
That said, there can still be fireworks. Rashee Rice cashed in last week with a touchdown, and he can exploit a Colts coverage that struggles with slot receivers. On the other side, Daniel Jones will need to make plays with his legs to keep the chains moving and escape a relentless KC pass rush.
Colts vs Chiefs combo
- Under 46.5
- Rashee Rice 1+ touchdown
- Daniel Jones 10+ rushing yards
Colts vs Chiefs touchdown scorer: Rashee Rice
Given the matchup with the Colts and how they were burned by Baltimore’s slot WRs, I’m going back to the well with Rice on Sunday night.
Indianapolis allowed 324 total passing yards to Lamar Jackson, and 132 of those gains came from receivers lining up in the slot. These problems aren’t new, as the Colts allowed the third-most fantasy points to slot receivers in 2025.
Rice topped the Chiefs WRs in snaps, lining up in the slot and out wide in Week 1. He drew just two targets, one of which was for a 13-yard catch in the end zone. That gave Rice his eighth TD in his last 13 games dating back to 2024 (along with a fine for punting the ball into the crowd).
Touchdown probabilities bounce between 31% and 50%, with most on the higher end, giving value to his trading price of 33% in Week 2.
- Top picks: 4-0, +3.53 units
- Combos: 0-4, -4.00 units
Colts vs Chiefs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Colts +6.5 | Chiefs -6.5
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (49%) | Under 46.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Colts 28% | Chiefs 74%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Colts vs Chiefs weather
Sunday night shows a 72% chance of showers over Arrowhead Stadium, coming down harder right around this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff and continuing throughout.
Ball security, tricky receiving, and a slick playing surface all help the Under. Temperatures will be around 70 degrees with light winds blowing NNE at 7 mph and gusts up to 8 mph.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Colts vs Chiefs trend to know
Kansas City is 20-40 Over/Under (67% Unders) as a home favorite since 2018, including a 13-27 O/U count (68% Unders) when laying -6 or more at Arrowhead. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Colts vs Chiefs
| Location | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO. |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Colts vs Chiefs latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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