NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props for Week 2

The touchdown train was rolling and hitting all the stops in Week 1, and I'm looking for another big week for my NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks, as there is a little more information for bettors to use and the prices haven't adjusted in many cases. 

Week 2 gives us more information, and that means more edges. I'm hunting for TD prices the market hasn't caught up to yet, getting ahead of the move before these fair prices disappear.

These are my favorite NFL picks for Week 2.

Best Week 2 anytime touchdown scorer picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Game	Pick	Probability
PHI vs TEN	Dontayvion Wicks	23%
MIN vs CHI	Caleb Williams	22%
PIT vs NE	Pat Freiermuth	15%
GB vs NYJ	Braelon Allen	24%
NO vs BAL	Durham Smythe	11%
CIN vs HOU	Chase Brown	47%
CLE vs TB	Deshaun Watson	14%
CAR vs ATL	Chuba Hubbard	50%
LV vs LAC	Michael Mayer	27%
JAX vs DEN	Bhaysul Tuten	31%
MIA vs SF	Demarcus Robinson	22%
SEA vs ARI	Jadarian Price	42%
WAS vs DAL	Jake Ferguson	27%
IND vs KC	Alec Pierce	22%
NYG vs LAR	Isaiah Likely	27%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Eagles vs Titans TD pick

Dontayvion Wicks 23%

 GRADE: 🟢

The Titans aren't going to score, and I have this WR2 in a plus matchup at around 26% to score on Sunday.

Dontayvion Wicks played a big part in the Eagles' Week 1 win, playing 91% of the snaps, running one fewer route than DeVonta Smith, and leading the team in air-yard share despite Dallas Goedert's big game. The offense also ran 3-WR sets on 72% of its plays.

Geno Smith completed 19 of 24 against the Titans, and after the Cardinals' win, Tennessee could be set up for another season of being the team that players pad their stats against. This is a great price for a WR2 on a team that I have winning this game 80% of the time.

Vikings vs Bears TD pick

Caleb Williams 22%

 GRADE: 🟢

After running 10 times for 65 yards and two scores last week, Caleb Williams' TD price hasn't seen a big correction after closing at 20% in Week 1. Williams should not be this long for a TD in a 59-point game and as the seventh-most probable Bear to score.

Even in the two meetings last season against the Vikings, the Chicago quarterback ran 10 times for 84 yards and a score. The Vikings' all-out blitz defense only helps create big-gain rushing opportunities for opposing QBs, while the Packers also put up 419 yards of offense against Minnesota, which was a bottom-five mark last week.

Williams likely won't take off 10 times again, but if this offense stays aggressive, his TD price could drop. That's a price I'm willing to pay this week at 25% or better.

Steelers vs Patriots TD pick

Pat Freiermuth 15%

 GRADE: 🟢

This is one of the best +EV TDs on the board, per THE BLITZ, which has this fair price at 4.8x, or a 20.8% probability of scoring.

Pat Freiermuth saw a bigger route share in Week 1 than his 72% mark last season, drawing six targets for a 5-46-1 line while cashing a 4.75x TD. The 6.5x price is just wrong.

The tight end had the only WR/TE red-zone targets in Week 1, with two, and scored on one of them. His RZ role is looking good, especially with the ground game looking subpar.

Packers vs Jets TD pick

Braelon Allen 24%

GRADE: 🟡

This is still a +EV TD with a fair price of 3.5x (28.6%), and it's easy to see why. Braelon Allen saw double-digit carries last week against the Titans and played the majority of the snaps on third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go. It was Breece Hall getting the red-zone carries, but there weren't any short TD opportunities, and Allen handled the majority of the third-down work.

The Packers gave up TDs to both Minnesota backs last week and were one of the worst teams in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on all four Minnesota opportunities inside the 20. Their turnovers and penalties can only help New York keep a neutral game script.

Saints vs Ravens TD pick

Durham Smythe 11%

GRADE: 🟡

I got this at 10.5% (9.5x) and would play this to 7x (14.2%). Durham Smythe might have even more opportunities than last week with the injuries to the Baltimore pass-catchers.

Smythe played 62% of the snaps in Week 1, had one RZ target, and might see his routes increase with Ja'Kobi Lane out and Zay Flowers banged up.

The Ravens ran heavy sets at a 53% rate last week against the Colts, and with so much uncertainty around the WR rotation, especially with the possibility of Devontez Walker coming back, I'll take a half-unit long shot on a guy playing a decent amount of snaps in an offense that's humming out of the gates.

Bengals vs Texans TD pick

Chase Brown 47%

 GRADE: 🟢

This might be the best price we get for Chase Brown all season. He should not be 50% or lower in any game, and this price is giving the Texans too much credit after a similar top-tier offense just put up 36 points and 409 total yards in Houston last week.

Chase Brown got six of the seven running back red-zone opportunities last week, including all three carries inside the five, where he cashed a 55.6% touchdown. He's scored seven TDs over his last four games dating back to last season, and I have him at a base probability of 55.6% against an average defense.

Start trading with Kalshi today!

Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including NFL TDs!

Sign Up Now at

*Eligible U.S. locations only

Browns vs Buccaneers TD pick

Deshaun Watson 14%

GRADE: 🟢 

Sometimes people in the dumps need some support, and that's where I am with Deshaun Watson this week at a 7x TD price that should not be more than 5x.

He had a very difficult Week 1 matchup against that Jaguars defense. Things should be a little easier against the Buccaneers, who allowed 5.6 yards per play and five red-zone opportunities to the Bengals.

Watson ran six times last week for 38 yards, including twice in the red zone, and was one of only eight QBs who had multiple RZ rushes in Week 1.

He's locked into the No. 1 role and will want to silence the Cleveland fans in Week 3 in the home opener with at least something positive this week. Just think of the bragging rights you'll get if you cash a 7x Watson TD when the world is rooting against him.

Panthers vs Falcons TD pick

Chuba Hubbard 50%

GRADE: 🟡

The Falcons are a no-go with their QB play, and Chuba Hubbard is the man in this Carolina offense, which won't go up and down the field as it did against Chicago every week. Hubbard is a great play here at 55.6% or lower, or 1.8x.

The RB1 took almost 80% of the RB snaps before the final drive, and Jonathan Brooks, coming back from multiple lengthy injuries, received just 12 offensive snaps. It was also Hubbard who got all four of the RB red-zone opportunities, which he turned into two scores at 2.2x. Carolina will have the ball all game.

I thought about chasing the Jalen Coker TD, but Hubbard is a needed safe floor when you have a lengthy TD card.

Raiders vs Chargers TD pick

Michael Mayer 27%

GRADE: 🟢

I got this at 3.7x and would play to 3.2x. The Raiders should be playing in a negative game script on Sunday, and Michael Mayer could be the most-targeted Raider in an indoor game against a Chargers team that is in a must-win spot in Week 2.

Last week as the TE1, Mayer led the Silver and Black in target share at 24% and targets per route run at 30%. He had seven targets and caught six balls, with the Raiders playing with the lead from start to finish. He was also one of three pass-catchers to see a target in the red zone.

Mayer is also a top option in the Covers anytime touchdown Value Index, which has become a great tool in finding weekly TD value while saving time. 

He isn't running deep routes, but that's a good thing when his QB is Kirk Cousins. He could have a big-volume game if Las Vegas is forced to pass more than its 46% rate in Week 1.

Jaguars vs Broncos TD pick

Bhayshul Tuten 31%

GRADE: 🟢

It seems every position for the Broncos is a crowded mess, and that Week 1 prime-time performance left a sour taste in my mouth. The Jaguars, however, looked as good as the Bills and Ravens. The Denver run defense knew Kenneth Walker was coming with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes and still got run over.

That's where the 3.2x comes in for Bhayshul Tuten, and it's a price I'd take to 2.5x. The Jacksonville backfield was pretty split, and Tuten didn't play a huge role, logging 48% of the snaps, but when he was on the field, he got the ball. He had 16 opportunities on 27 snaps, and the blowout might have muddied the actual rotation.

Chris Rodriguez could poach some goal-line work, and his 4.1x price is also something to consider. I just think the Jacksonville running game and offense aren't getting enough credit against a Denver defense that did nothing and is on a short week.

It's not often you get an RB1 price longer than 2x.

Dolphins vs 49ers TD pick

Demarcus Robinson 22%

GRADE: 🟢

Everyone and their mom is likely looking to bet on Kaelon Black vs. the Dolphins, but I don't love his 3x price. I'd rather play him for last TD at 10.5x, but that seems pretty close to fair.

The real value is with Demarcus Robinson, who played 91% of the snaps after rookie De'Zhaun Stribling exited. He's out long-term. The loss of Jake Tonges also opens up some snaps for Robinson in a pass-catching group of oft-injured older players who might not respond well to the travel to Australia and back.

Robinson is a buy to 3.8x and is the best-valued TD according to the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index, which hit its top-valued TD last week with Dallas Goedert.

Seahawks vs Cardinals TD pick

Jadarian Price 42%

GRADE: 🟡

Let's not get carried away with Arizona's Week 1 win, and getting an RB1 against this team at 2.4x is a steal.

Jadarian Price got his feet wet in the opener and was the preferred back on first and second down, with George Holani getting 92% of the third-down work. He'll have another week to prepare with new QB Drew Lock, which could make this team more run-heavy than it was with Sam Darnold.

The Seahawks only ran 48 plays last Wednesday, so Price's 10-carry, 52-yard game should have more volume in Week 2. The Seahawks had zero carries inside the 10-yard line, but George Holani took the only two red-zone carries.

Here's hoping Mike Macdonald and Brian Fleury let Price eat a little more in the Price vs. Jeremiyah Love game.

Commanders vs Cowboys TD pick

Jake Ferguson  27%

GRADE: 🟢

This TD is popping on the projections at its 3.65x price, with a fair price of 3.2x. It's also the No. 5 TD on the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index (68).

The Commanders just gave up a monster line to another TE last week in Dallas Goedert, who went for 4-77-2. His TD was the highest-value play on the TD Value Index.

Jake Ferguson saw just two targets on SNF but still played 75% of the snaps, which ranked behind only CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. If Ferguson finds paydirt in Week 2, the Commanders are officially TE funnels.

Colts vs Chiefs TD pick

Alec Pierce  22%

GRADE: 🟡

Remember when we got Kenneth Walker at close to even money? Not anymore. The Chiefs players are hard to back at their current prices. However, the market is low on the Colts, who are giant dogs in this game despite the Chiefs playing on a short week.

This Alec Pierce price is also well above fair value at 4.5x, compared to a fair price of 3.4x. Pierce exited early in Week 1 but came back and played close to 90% of the snaps in the second half. This is still a secondary that had a ton of turnover from the previous year, and although Bo Nix and the Broncos couldn't figure it out, there should be plenty of negative game script for Daniel Jones to keep chucking the ball.

If Pierce plays average in this game, this price will never appear again.

Giants vs Rams TD pick

Isaiah Likely 27%

GRADE: 🟢

Isaiah Likely was the cash converter last week and was a huge part of the Giants' offense, keeping pace with Malik Nabers in terms of usage and volume. Despite that, his TD price has not moved, which I don't mind at all. I understand it's the Rams, but they are just getting back from Australia and looked awful defending the pass in Week 1.

Likely had four targets in the red zone and finished with two TDs. No other TE or WR had more than three RZ catches in Week 1.

Likely is the No. 2 in this passing game and is a green light for a TD buy at 3x or better right now.

My weekly NFL TD props column is 5-9 SU this season for +7.5 units.

Pages related to this topic