NFL AI Predictions Week 9: ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Game

Joe Fagnano's first career start gives the Ravens a very different test on Thursday night. The Jaguars just collected four sacks and three takeaways against the Colts, and Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns on only 14 attempts. That supports the visitors' advantage, but losing defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton and safety Eric Murray for the season leaves the Jaguars replacing important pieces on a short week.

The Ravens' 9.5-point cushion allows for a Jaguars win without requiring a competitive final possession. The harder part of the Over case is Fagnano sustaining enough drives to contribute points. His full Tuesday practice does not remove the uncertainty of his first NFL start. Both selections differ from Joe Osborne's Jaguars vs. Ravens prediction, which favors the visitors and a lower total.

Joe Burrow's efficiency gives the Bengals the clearest advantage in Madrid. He is completing 73% of his passes and leads the league in touchdown throws, while Mike Gesicki has scored in five consecutive games. The Falcons will try to disrupt that rhythm without Samson Ebukam, who went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Letting Burrow work through his targets would make a short spread difficult to defend.

The Falcons' rain-soaked shutout deserves context: Michael Penix Jr. entered that game with nine touchdown passes and one interception before throwing four picks. A more controlled performance would help the Falcons sustain possessions and keep Burrow off the field. The Under depends on that kind of game rather than another collapse. The Bengals have the more reliable passing attack, but empty possessions would make laying even a short spread uncomfortable.

The Saints need their extra preparation time to produce a more useful running game. They return from the bye after dismissing run-game coordinator T.J. Paganetti, with the offense averaging just 86 rushing yards per game. A coaching change alone will not fix the blocking or execution. Tyler Shough needs enough early-down production to keep the Browns from anticipating obvious passing situations.

Deshaun Watson remains atop the Browns' depth chart, so the Saints also need their defense to keep this within reach while the offense finds its rhythm. A modest improvement in the running game would make it easier to protect a late lead. There is little protection in the total: Under 43.5 sits only half a point above the forecast. A turnover that creates a short field could undo that lean without changing the broader matchup.

The Colts need Daniel Jones to protect possessions before they can make this a close game. Shane Steichen is sticking with him after a two-interception performance in the 42–7 loss to the Jaguars. The Cowboys have their own uncertainty: Jake Ferguson's ankle evaluation left open a return, while safeties Caleb Downs and P.J. Locke entered concussion protocol. None of those developments establishes a final Sunday lineup.

Dak Prescott gives the Cowboys a way to win even if the Colts make their running game less productive. Indianapolis needs longer, cleaner possessions to prevent that passing advantage from becoming a large lead. The points offer some room for a home loss, while the Over requires a substantial offensive rebound. Another afternoon of Jones giveaways and stalled drives would threaten both positions, whatever the Cowboys get from their uncertain lineup.

Bo Nix's improving efficiency meets a Panthers defense making a change on the sideline. Nix averaged 7.3 yards per attempt over his last two games after managing 5.5 through Week 6. Todd Wash takes over as interim defensive coordinator for the Panthers, while the Broncos must replace injured running back RJ Harvey. Keeping Nix in manageable passing situations matters more with that backfield loss.

Bryce Young and Dave Canales said his knee was not limiting him Tuesday, but protection remains a concern after six sacks against the Packers. The Broncos can strengthen their cover case by forcing Young into those longer passing situations. For the Over, the Panthers need enough productive drives to contribute; a steady stream of sacks and punts would work against it. The total sits just half a point below our projection, making that distinction especially important.

Jared Goff's ball security gives the Lions a steadier offensive foundation. He has 15 touchdown passes against one interception; Malik Willis has six and five. Jahmyr Gibbs also supplies a rushing threat that demands attention, but the Lions' defensive outlook is less settled. Jack Campbell's neck injury required hospital evaluation, and the team's encouraging update did not establish a return date.

The Dolphins need productive early downs to keep Willis from chasing the game through obvious passing situations. That would help them stay within a 6.5-point cushion even if Goff delivers the steadier performance. Campbell's uncertain status also matters to the total: the Lions cannot simply be assumed to shut down the middle of the field. The Under is more comfortable with sustained possessions ending in field goals than with giveaways creating easy touchdowns.

The Rams' running backs can take pressure off an offense monitoring Matthew Stafford's throwing arm. Blake Corum and Kyren Williams combined for 129 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers. Their production offers a way to avoid repeatedly asking Stafford to hold the ball against a Commanders defense that just recorded five sacks. Stafford's arm soreness remains an availability concern.

Leaning on Corum and Williams would also help the Rams manage possession and reduce exposure to the Commanders' pass rush. The Under benefits if those possessions consume time without producing repeated explosive gains. Jayden Daniels creating short, quick scoring drives would push the game the other way, particularly with the Rams dealing with injuries at cornerback. Laying 5.5 leaves only half a point beneath the projected margin, so Stafford's condition carries real weight.

Protecting Tanner McKee is the Eagles' first requirement for ending their six-game losing streak. He absorbed five sacks in the 27–10 loss to the Commanders, and the offense went scoreless after halftime. The Giants arrive from their bye with more preparation time, but a one-point projection offers little reason to expect them to control every phase of this division matchup.

J.J. McCarthy does not need a dominant afternoon to give the Giants a chance to win, but he must avoid handing the struggling Eagles short fields. Philadelphia's 3.5-point cushion allows for a narrow division loss if McKee can keep possessions alive. That is also the requirement for the Over: the Eagles need to turn enough drives into scoring chances. Another scoreless half would put too much of the burden on the visitors.

The Jets can move the ball, but their red-zone execution has to improve. They gained 439 yards against the Raiders yet scored touchdowns on only two of six red-zone trips. That left an opening their defense could not close. Patrick Mahomes presents another difficult assignment after throwing for 321 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos, even as penalties helped undermine the Chiefs' finish.

Settling for field goals again would make it difficult for the Jets to keep pace, while giving the Chiefs a stronger route to a cover. The Under also depends on avoiding cheap scoring opportunities. Penalties that extend possessions or a turnover near midfield could change that outlook quickly. With only half a point between the projected margin and Chiefs -9.5, cleaner execution matters more than expecting Mahomes to produce a rout on his own.

Ball security is the clearest difference between these passing games. C.J. Stroud has 11 touchdown passes and one interception; Justin Herbert has five and 10. The Texans return from their bye against a winless Chargers team that managed only three field goals against the Rams. Avoiding giveaways would let Houston make the Chargers earn points through longer possessions.

The Texans can strengthen both selections by making Herbert work through full possessions without handing him short fields. The Chargers do not need a complete offensive transformation to make the spread uncomfortable: Texans -4.5 sits just half a point below the projected margin. Better decisions from Herbert would narrow that gap and threaten the Under. Houston's advantage rests on sustaining its own ball security while forcing the hosts to earn their scoring chances.

Gardner Minshew gives the Cardinals a fresh start after an immediate impact in relief. He threw three touchdown passes against the Cowboys and was named the starter for this trip to Seattle. That is encouraging evidence, although one partial game cannot settle how consistently the offense will operate. The Seahawks counter with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who already has 985 receiving yards through eight games.

The Cardinals' 11.5-point cushion gives Minshew room to lose this matchup while still delivering a cover. Sustaining drives would help both that position and the Over by keeping the Cardinals involved in the scoring. The concern is what happens when the Seahawks force obvious passing situations and Minshew cannot rely on the immediate success he found in relief. Smith-Njigba's production makes it difficult to count on a quiet day from the home offense.

The Packers' passing production has carried an offense still searching for rushing balance. They rank second at 271 passing yards per game but last at 60.6 rushing yards. That imbalance meets a Patriots defense allowing only 92.6 rushing yards per game. Jordan Love may need to keep delivering through the air instead of expecting the ground game to make this an easier road assignment.

The Patriots are 3–0 at home, but their offensive injury concerns remain material, including A.J. Brown's uncertain return. Their defense needs to make the Packers work through long drives while Drake Maye finds enough scoring opportunities at the other end. Explosive completions would help the home cover but threaten the Under. With just half a point between the projected margin and Patriots -3.5, a single stalled red-zone possession could decide the spread.

Kirk Cousins gives the Raiders enough passing production to test a rested 49ers defense. He threw three touchdowns without a turnover in the comeback win over the Jets and has 19 passing scores this season. The 49ers return from their bye with DeForest Buckner added to the defensive front. Creating pressure inside would make it harder for Cousins to build another efficient afternoon.

The 49ers need that interior pressure to disrupt Cousins without giving him easy throws behind extra rushers. Christian McCaffrey's availability remains unsettled after his hamstring strain, so a fully restored offense cannot be assumed. A turnover-free Raiders performance would make a 9.5-point cover particularly demanding. The Under can survive useful passing production from both teams, but repeated short fields or quick touchdowns would erode the modest room beneath 52.5.

The Buccaneers' rushing surge meets a Bears defense that has excelled at getting off the field. Tampa Bay has run for 582 yards over its last two wins, while the Bears allow a league-best 23.8% third-down conversion rate. Jeffery Simmons also recorded a sack and two tackles for loss in his Chicago debut. Keeping the Buccaneers behind schedule would reduce the value of their ground-game volume.

Caleb Williams has averaged 287 passing yards across three straight wins since returning from injury. The Buccaneers need their running game to preserve possessions and limit his opportunities; falling behind quickly would make that plan harder to maintain. Taking 6.5 points leaves room for a competitive road loss. The Under works best if the Buccaneers can keep the game methodical while the Bears continue forcing difficult third-down conversions.

The Vikings' protection has to withstand a Bills defense willing to send extra pressure. Buffalo blitzed on 64.5% of Ravens dropbacks last week, generating four sacks and three takeaways. That does not guarantee an identical plan here, but it gives the Vikings an urgent protection problem with Christian Darrisaw's shoulder and Kyler Murray's hamstring still under evaluation.

This upset call assumes Murray starts; his unresolved availability remains central to the outlook. Quick decisions can punish the Bills' extra rushers, but the Vikings first need protection that gives those throws time to develop. Allen's scrambling can punish pressure at the other end, requiring disciplined pursuit from the home defense. The points provide more room than the outright pick, while the Over is only half a point below the projection and needs both offenses to finish drives.