It was a bumpy start to the 2026 season for my weekly “NFL Underdogs” column.
My NFL picks finished 1-2 ATS for the opening slate, but I’m not panicking or overreacting to that result. Slow starts have been the norm for my column selections over the years.
In fact, I'm a collective 6-12 ATS in Week 1 going back to 2020. Hell, last year I went 0-3 ATS to start 2025 and closed the campaign with a 35-22-2 ATS record. I'm good.
Not overreacting to Week 1 is the name of the game. Teams are never as good or as bad as they seem in that first touch, which is why Week 2 underdogs have covered at a 58% clip over the past six seasons.
It’s also why my Week 2 NFL underdog picks are 12-6 ATS in that span. See, don’t panic.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 1-2 ATS (-1.09 units)
NFL Week 2 underdog picks
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Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (at New England Patriots)
Mike McCarthy has big shoes to fill in the Steel City.
No, I’m not talking about Mike Tomlin’s championship pedigree. I’m talking about Tomlin’s ability to cover the spread as an underdog.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were 63% ATS winners when catching points during Tomlin’s tenure.
As someone who writes a weekly column dedicated to NFL dogs, I hold a picture of Tomlin in bed every night, “Wolverine style”. You want to win me over, Coach McCarthy? Cover this spread in Week 2.
Pittsburgh is shipping out to Boston to battle the New England Patriots, who have had extra time to stew over their dud at Seattle on opening night.
New England’s offense looked bad, and it’s running thin on weapons, with WR1 A.J. Brown out and RB TreVeyon Henderson questionable. The Patriots averaged 4.1 yards per play in Week 1 and now face a retooled Steelers defense that tops all those sexy advanced metrics.
Yes, Pittsburgh did beat up on a third-stringer last Sunday, but the analytics that account for all of that still love the Steelers, who rank first in defensive DVOA and second in EPA allowed per play.
Laying almost six points seems like a steep climb for this Pats offense.
Washington Commanders +4.5 (at Dallas Cowboys)
I’m surprised to see this spread favoring the Dallas Cowboys, jumping from -3.5 to -4.5 considering the Week 1 results.
Dallas was dead in the water in New Jersey, like a bloated corpse washing up on shore in an episode of “The Sopranos”.
Christian Parker's defensive play calling was outdone by a simple yet relentless Giants attack, and the Cowboys enter Week 2 dealing with two big injuries to LB DeMarvion Overshown and S Malik Hooker.
The Washington Commanders overcame a no-show first half in Philadelphia and looked very strong offensively in the final 30 minutes, amassing almost 200 yards and 13 points against the Eagles’ elite stop unit. Washington was No. 6 in EPA per play in 2H offense last week.
Defensively, the Commies dialed up the chaos. New defensive coordinator Daronte Jones blitzed at the fifth-highest rate among all Week 1 stop units, boiling up the ninth-best pressure rate and three sacks.
That was against Philly’s protection, which rates out as a Top 5 O-line. The Cowboys' front is nowhere close to that, and the loss of LG Tyler Smith was evident against New York.
New Orleans Saints +8.5 (at Baltimore Ravens)
Cue the Mr. Mister. The Baltimore Ravens have some broken wings.
Baltimore’s air attack has been clipped, with receivers Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane dealing with injuries in Week 2. That could shorten a Ravens offense that hit three passing plays of 40+ yards in a squash of Indianapolis on Sunday.
As for the New Orleans Saints, they were the closest thing to a winning team despite not actually getting the "W" in Week 1.
The Saints showed tremendous fight against the Lions. New Orleans was down 21-0 in the third quarter before scoring 24 second-half points and pushing Detroit to the brink in overtime. That had the Saints covering as 6.5-point road dogs.
Much like Washington, NOLA found its footing in the final 30 minutes and rated Top 10 in EPA among 2H offenses in Week 1. The Saints also ranked in the top 10 in third-down success and red-zone scoring, going 4-for-5 in the red zone.
This spread opened at New Orleans +7.5 in the summer and has since moved to +8.5, with some sportsbooks offering as high as +9, despite the Ravens' receiving corps dealing with injuries. Baltimore wins, but not by this many.
Week 2 underdog combo
Steelers +5.5
Commanders +4.5
Saints +8.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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