The New England Patriots are sizable 5.5-point home favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers ahead of their 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 20.
My Steelers vs. Patriots prediction and NFL picks expect a low-scoring bout with Pittsburgh staying inside the number in Week 2.
TOP Pick
Steelers vs Patriots prediction: Under 42.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots aren’t built for high-scoring games, so I like this Under down to 40.5.
Pats quarterback Drake Maye threw for just 5.4 yards per attempt and a 6.5 aDoT, and Steelers veteran Aaron Rodgers wasn’t notably better with a 60% completion rate for an equally pedestrian 5.5 YPA.
Additionally, even if both teams went up against backup quarterbacks in Week 1, the two stout defenses stood out. Pittsburgh allowed the fifth-lowest offensive success rate, with New England surrendering the eighth-lowest mark.
New England losing No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) is also a huge blow to the offense, and with running back TreVeyon Henderson returning to practice in full this week, I expect the Pats to lean on the ground game to protect Maye against a Pittsburgh pass rush that piled up four sacks in Week 1 and finished with the No. 1 in PFF pass rush grade.
COVERS INTEL: The Steelers posted the best defensive DVOA in the NFL in Week 1, which further stands out because the defining feature of the metric is adjusting for the quality of opponent.
Steelers vs Patriots combo
With the Steelers sending out a capable, experienced, and versatile defense, I’m happy to take the points in what I forecast to be a low-scoring game.
Additionally, while Rodgers’ surface numbers don’t jump off the page, he finished with the seventh-highest PFF offense grade among quarterbacks and didn’t have a single turnover-worthy play in Week 1.
Finally, I’m anticipating another busy day for the veteran QB through the air with a lot of quick looks in head coach and playcaller Mike McCarthy’s evolved West Coast offense.
Steelers vs Patriots combo
- Steelers +5.5
- Aaron Rodgers 200+ passing yards
- Aaron Rodgers 22+ completions
Steelers vs Patriots touchdown scorer: DK Metcalf
This is a fair number for Pittsburgh wide receiver DK Metcalf to find the end zone. He paced the Steelers in targets with a 27% share in Week 1, and he also garnered a respectable 28.6% of red-zone touches in 2025.
Additionally, the 6-foot-4 Metcalf has a notable size advantage over the New England secondary, and I expect McCarthy to create opportunities for his go-to receiver to avoid being blanketed by Patriots star shadow cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
- Top picks: 7-5, +1.44 units
- Combos: 0-3, -3 units
Steelers vs Patriots odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Steelers +5.5 | Patriots -5.5
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (50%) | Under 41.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Steelers 33% | Patriots 67%
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Steelers vs Patriots weather
The forecast calls for cloudy skies, cool temperatures around 59°F, and a 65% chance of rain showers. Mild southeasterly winds at 5-6 mph shouldn't impact kicking at Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Steelers vs Patriots trend to know
The Steelers have cashed the moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games for +4.60 units and a 16% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Patriots.
How to watch Steelers vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Steelers vs Patriots latest injuries
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