If you’re new to NFL odds or need a refresh on the basics, let me remind you: it’s not about picking the best teams but getting the best numbers.
Spreads and totals for the coming week hit the board on Sunday nights and can look very different by the time games kick off in seven days. Hell, they’ll look different on Monday morning.
Depending on what you like, you need to time your NFL Week 2 picks accordingly. This is the most efficient market in sports, so playing around half-point hooks and key numbers is vital to long-term profits.
I highlight a spread and total to play now and some lines you’ll want to wait on for a better number later in the week. Here’s a look at NFL Week 2.
NFL predictions: Week 2 trade now, trade later picks
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| Pick | Trade Now or Trade Later |  |
|---|---|---|
| Bears -5.5 (vs. Vikings) | Now | 49% |
| Cowboys -3.5 (vs. Commanders) | Later | 49% |
| Saints vs. Ravens Under 47.5 | Now | 53% |
| Lions vs. Bills Under 53.5 | Later | 51% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Vikings vs Bears (-5.5): Trade Now
Kyler Murray’s status for the Minnesota Vikings is uncertain for Week 2 after he left early in the opener with a concussion.
His reaction was scary, immediately going into the fencing response. That doesn’t look good for crossing all those concussion protocol checkpoints by Sunday.
Minnesota has a capable backup in veteran Carson Wentz, but he’s a definite downgrade at QB when you consider Kevin O’Connell has modified his schemes for the mobile Murray.
The Chicago Bears showed just how dangerous they can be on offense with a 59-point outburst at Carolina in Week 1. The Vikings are a tougher defense, but if Wentz can’t move the chains, Minnesota’s stop unit is spending a lot of time on the field.
The look-ahead line was Chicago -3.5. The move from Murray to Wentz is worth more than two points.
If I like Chicago, I’m taking it -5.5 now, below the key number of -6 before any news on Murray comes out and prompts action on the Bears.
Commanders vs Cowboys (-3.5): Trade Later
The Dallas Cowboys were flat in Week 1 and got bullied by the Giants on national TV. The Cowboys have another NFC East rivalry game in Week 2, facing the Washington Commanders at home.
As of Monday morning, the Cowboys rank No. 30 in EPA allowed per play in Week 1 (with two teams still to go). Not a great start for new defensive coordinator Christian Parker.
Offensively, the Cowboys couldn’t get rolling. Not only did New York dominate possession and limit Dak Prescott’s time with the ball, but Dallas’ wide receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens had some drive-killing drops.
A return home can help kickstart the Cowboys' attack. If you like Big D in Week 2, wait and see if you can avoid the half-point hook. The look-ahead line of -4.5 was trimmed to -3.5 for the opener, and vig is dropping there, indicating a potential move to a field goal.
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Saints vs Ravens Under 47.5: Trade Now
The New Orleans Saints looked dead in the water for the first 30 minutes of the 2026 season.
They were 27th in EPA per play in the first half versus Detroit on Sunday before the Lions took their foot off the gas and found themselves in an overtime squeaker. New Orleans’ output looks better than it was, scoring six points in the extra frame (before missing the 2-point conversion).
The Baltimore Ravens hung 41 points on Indianapolis in Week 1 but took a hit in the receiving corps, losing Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane to injury. This group was already thin and could have Baltimore’s offense short and simple in Week 2.
The Ravens ran at the second-highest rate in the opener (58%), mainly due to protecting a big lead in the second half. But they could be forced into similar handoffs with the passing game missing pieces.
This opened as high as 48.5 O/U on Sunday night, and there is value in taking the Under 47.5, given the importance of 46 and 47 as key numbers.
Lions vs Bills Under 53.5: Trade Later
The tallest total on the Week 2 board quickly climbed from 52.5 to as high as 54 points at some shops. Given the offenses involved, it’s clear to see why.
Prime-time games often draw public play on the Over, and after Josh Allen & Co. hung 36 points on Houston’s top-tier defense, there will be no shortage of money coming in on a high-scoring finish.
That said, Thursday games produce weirdo results, and there will be a ton of pageantry and distraction around Week 2’s midweek matchup, as this is the Buffalo Bills' home opener in new Highmark Stadium.
Let’s not forget the Detroit Lions managed just 24 points in regulation despite three takeaways. All those extra possessions didn’t help, as the passing offense finished with 5.3 yards per attempt (27th). Detroit’s scoring prowess gets a push due to a bonus seven points in overtime.
If you’re a contrarian bastard like me, wait and see how high this total ticks before TNF.
Also mind the weather reports for Orchard Park. Extended forecasts call for a chance of rain on Thursday night. That doesn’t bode well for a shoddy new grass surface that needed to be replaced at the end of August.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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