My NFL Survivor picks for Week 9 focus on navigating a 15-game slate with just two teams on bye.
The biggest favorite isn't always the smartest choice, especially when future value matters.
Jacksonville stands out, but a risky Giants alternative and two potential traps also deserve attention.
For more football analysis, explore our staff's latest NFL picks.
Jaguars
Giants
Cowboys
LionsPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Week 9 Survivor Pool first look
There are several intriguing survivor options this week, which means fewer contrarian picks.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks are all lined as 9.5- to 11.5-point favorites.
The Niners are my preferred choice of the three. They host the Las Vegas Raiders coming off their bye week. San Francisco also leads the NFL in net yards per play and early-down EPA per play differential, while Las Vegas ranks 26th and 25th in those metrics, respectively.
If you want to get real nutty, take the 2-5 Houston Texans over the 0-7 Los Angeles Chargers, who continue to baffle me.
With Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers shouldn't be this bad, yet here they are, still winless. Houston is coming off a bye, and its difference-makers on both sides of the ball are healthy.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Teams to target in Week 9
Safe pick: Jaguars (@ Ravens)
This is an absolutely terrible spot for Baltimore, which could be down to its third-string quarterback on a short week.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are mostly healthy, the second-favorite to win the AFC, and the third-favorite to finish with the NFL's best record.
Risky pick: Giants (@ Eagles)
New York will be a contrarian survivor pick this week because it's a divisional matchup, and the Giants are arguably the lowest power-rated first-place team in the league.
However, the sky is falling in Philadelphia, and the Eagles are a legitimate contender for the No. 1 overall pick in 2027.
Teams to avoid in Week 9
Cowboys (@ Colts)
Dallas has already lost twice at home in its last four games as a bigger favorite, falling to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) and Arizona Cardinals (-7.5).
According to Pro.NFL.com, the Cowboys rank second-worst in the league in defensive EPA per play, making them a team to cross off as a survivor pick for the rest of the season.
Lions (@ Dolphins)
The same thing I wrote about Dallas's defense applies to Detroit's. In fact, they are tied for the second-worst defensive EPA per play.
Plus, I like what I've seen from Miami in recent weeks. The Dolphins have covered three of their last four games, including an outright win, with the other result being a push against the spread.
Week 9 Survivor Pool strategy
Adjust your strategy based on how many entries remain. If your pool is down to a handful of survivors, prioritize the safest available team. If hundreds remain, consider a less popular favorite to gain leverage, but don't sacrifice too much win probability just to be different.
That said, I'm leaning toward Jacksonville over San Francisco because the Jaguars are on the road for Thursday Night Football, which could make them less popular. Survivor players typically shy away from road teams and Thursday games.
Jacksonville also has less future value, with seven of its final nine games on the road. San Francisco, on the other hand, hosts Philly in Week 17 and closes out the regular season on the road against the Arizona Cardinals.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
