My early Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, Sept. 20, don't expect the visitors to go down without a fight.
The Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys each opened their 2026 NFL campaigns with a loss to a divisional rival.
That desperation heads to Dallas, where the home team is a 3.5-point favorite despite a Sunday night dud. Jayden Daniels & Co. will keep this closer than many expect.
Commanders vs Cowboys predictions
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Early Commanders vs Cowboys spread pick: Commanders +3.5
The Washington Commanders took the fight to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1.
While the Commies only mustered 22 points, the offense was very efficient and did so against one of the best defenses in the land.
Washington was 3-for-3 in the red zone and picked up 20 first downs, ranking 11th in EPA per play in Week 1. A late push in the fourth quarter got the Commanders inside the closing 5.5-point spread, losing 24-22 on the road.
With the half-point hook on the field goal, I’m leaning toward the road team, especially after what we saw from the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.
The Cowboys couldn’t get New York off the field, as new defensive coordinator Christian Parker struggled on third downs. The Giants ate up almost 37 minutes of TOP and kept Dak Prescott parked on the sideline, leaving Dallas with two offensive possessions in the second half.
Week 2 is a much softer stop unit for Washington, and given the importance of this NFC East encounter, I’ll lean toward the points on the happy side of a field goal.
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Early Commanders vs Cowboys total pick: Over 50.5
The Cowboys still topped the total in the Week 1 ass-waxing at New York (final 48 points just went Over 47.5 O/U), and when Dallas did get to touch the football, it was OK.
The Cowboys closed Week 1 going 3-for-3 in the red zone, 8-for-11 on third downs, and ranked No. 5 in EPA per play heading into MNF. Home field should help shake off the rust for this attack.
Washington allowed only 24 points to the Eagles, but some of that is on Philly and its first run through in Sean Mannion’s sets. Philadelphia only had 10 first downs, went three-and-out on its first three possessions of the second half, and finished second-to-last in success rate per play.
The Commies were still gashed for big home-run plays, allowing three passes and two runs of 20+ yards, including three gains of 40+. Dallas has downfield threats in this air attack that thrive on the fast track indoors at AT&T Stadium.
This is a taller total, but both sides have plenty of firepower and two shoddy stop units giving up big plays.
Commanders vs Cowboys odds
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- Commanders vs Cowboys spread: Cowboys -3.5
- Commanders vs Cowboys moneyline: Commanders 36%, Cowboys 64%
- Commanders vs Cowboys Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch Commanders vs Cowboys
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Arlington, Texas
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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