Everyone at the bar has a bulletproof theory about who is winning the Senate, right up until you ask them to put twenty bucks on it.
At Covers, we usually spend November sweating NFL spreads, backup left tackles, and late-night college football totals. But if you want to bet on midterms instead of sports, prediction markets offer a different kind of ticket: a tradable contract on an election outcome.
- Prices imply probability: 72¢ roughly reflects a 72% probability.
- Know your risk: A losing $1 contract typically settles at zero.
- Check eligibility: Some prediction market apps prohibit U.S. residents and people located in America.
- Read settlement rules: Similar markets can resolve differently.
- Check fees and liquidity: Quoted prices may not cover your order.
- Selling early isn’t guaranteed: You need buyers at acceptable prices.
Learning how to trade midterm elections starts with a simple question: what price are you willing to pay?
Whether you have a bead on House and Senate control or fancy an underdog in a U.S. Senate race, this guide walks you through Kalshi, Polymarket US and the separate international Polymarket platform. Your location and eligibility determine which route you can use.
Compare 2026 Midterm Trading Offers
| Platform | Promo Code | Offer Details | Links |
| Kalshi | MAX60 |
Kalshi welcome offer: Check the current reward, qualifying trade and deadline before registering. New eligible customers only. |
View the Kalshi offer | Offer guide |
| Polymarket US | COVERS |
$25 trading credit: Make a qualifying first deposit of $10+ within seven days of onboarding. New eligible customers only; one deposit incentive per user. Credit cannot be withdrawn as cash. |
View the Polymarket US offer | Terms |
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What are Political Prediction Markets?
If you can read a moneyline, the basics of a prediction market will feel familiar. The price just looks different.
Instead of taking a bookmaker's moneyline or point spread, you buy 'Yes' or 'No' contracts on a specific question, such as "Will Republicans control the Senate?" or "Will Democrats control the House?"
A typical $1 binary election contract is quoted in cents on the dollar, such as 1¢ to 99¢:
- If your outcome happens: The contract normally settles at $1.00.
- If your outcome misses: It normally settles at $0.00. The contract rules govern cancellations and other unusual outcomes.
- What the price means: It represents an approximate market-implied probability, not a projected vote share or a guaranteed forecast.
If a 'Yes' contract on Senate control trades at 72¢, the market is pricing that outcome at roughly a 72% chance. Buy 100 contracts at an executed price of 72¢ and you pay $72 before fees. If they settle at $1 each, you receive $100, for $28 in profit before fees. If they settle at zero, you lose the $72 purchase cost plus fees.
Prediction markets mean you are trading with other participants. While a market is open, you can try to sell before settlement, but you need buyers who are willing to pay an acceptable price. Our prediction markets guide explains how those buy and sell offers work.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Which Platform is Right for You?
When sizing up Kalshi vs Polymarket, start with your location, preferred funding method and the contracts you want to trade. Our platform comparison covers the differences.
If you qualify for more than one platform, comparing their prices can help you assess the same political contest from different angles.
Kalshi (Best for US Users without crypto access)
Kalshi is a straightforward starting point for sports bettors exploring US election betting. You can trade election contracts in dollars without needing a crypto wallet.
- CFTC oversight: Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange. Account approval, location and product eligibility still matter.
- No crypto required: Fund your account through supported dollar payment methods, including a bank transfer.
- App or browser: Kalshi is available on iOS, Android and the web. Our Kalshi review explains its trading tools and account features.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Polymarket (US and International Options)
Polymarket politics boards cover congressional control, individual races and related election questions. Before choosing a market, make sure you are using the right product:
- For eligible US users: Polymarket US is the CFTC-regulated exchange. You can trade in dollars without cryptocurrency.
- For eligible international users: Polymarket.com is a separate crypto-based platform accessible through a web browser. Its terms prohibit trading by U.S. residents and people located in the U.S.; other geographic restrictions also apply.
- Check liquidity market by market: Liquidity means how readily you can buy or sell the quantity you want. Check the order book (the list of available buy and sell offers) because a popular platform does not guarantee a good price for every order.
Trade the midterms on Polymarket US
Join with code COVERS for $25 in trading credit after a qualifying first deposit of $10+ within seven days of onboarding. New eligible users only; one deposit incentive per user. The credit itself cannot be withdrawn; eligible profits may be. Offer terms apply.
How to Trade the Midterms on Kalshi (Step-by-Step)
Here is the route from registration to your first election contract. Complete the eligibility and identity checks before funding your account.
- Download and register: Open our Kalshi signup link and use the app or website. Check that the MAX60 offer is applied, or enter the code if prompted. Provide the requested personal information and complete any identity checks. You must be at least 18 and have your account approved.
- Deposit funds: Select Add funds, then Bank transfer. Link a bank account in your own name through Plaid or Aeropay and review the deposit. Bank funding may take time to clear. A wire transfer is another option, with a $1,000 minimum and account-specific instructions.
- Find the markets: Open the Kalshi midterms hub or search for a House-control, Senate-control or individual-race contract. Read the exact question, resolution source and settlement rules before choosing a side.
- Buy contracts: Choose 'Yes' or 'No' and enter your amount or quantity. Review the price, fees and total cost before confirming. A buy limit order sets the most you will pay per contract, but may fill partly or not at all. Check your completed trades after submitting.
How to Trade the Midterms on Polymarket (Step-by-Step)
Choose the product before following the steps. U.S. readers should check their eligibility for Polymarket US. The international instructions below apply only where Polymarket.com permits trading, and the U.S. welcome offer does not apply to that platform.
For Eligible US Traders: Polymarket US
- Create and verify your account: Use our Polymarket US signup link and check that code COVERS is applied during onboarding. Sign up with Google or Apple and complete the requested identity verification.
- Add dollars: Open Portfolio → Deposit and choose an available method, such as debit card or ACH bank transfer, using a payment account in your own name. Check the funding instructions and clearing times. The current deposit offer requires a qualifying first deposit of at least $10 within seven days of onboarding.
- Find the election market: Browse the Polymarket US midterms markets and open the contract you want. Read its question, settlement conditions and closing time.
- Review and trade: Select 'Yes' or 'No', enter your amount and choose an available order type. Review the price, fees and potential return before confirming. Check how much of your order filled.
For Eligible International Users: Polymarket.com
- Create an account: Visit com and sign up with email or Google, or connect a supported wallet such as MetaMask. Follow the login and trading-approval prompts.
- Fund your balance: Select Deposit and follow the instructions for the supported token and network. You can deposit supported assets such as USDC; the platform converts them into pUSD, its trading token on Polygon backed by USDC. Use the exact address and network in the deposit instructions. If MoonPay appears as a funding option, check card availability, verification requirements and fees before paying.
- Navigate to politics: Browse the Politics category or search for Midterms and your chosen race. Check the market's resolution source and conditions; similarly named contracts can settle differently.
- Place your trade: Choose an outcome and amount, then review the order and applicable fees. A market order uses available offers, so the headline price may not cover your full order. A buy limit order sets your maximum price and can remain partly or entirely unfilled.
Top 2026 Midterm Election Markets to Watch
With the best prediction market apps, you can trade the congressional picture, focus on a single state, or take a view on turnout. These examples were listed when reviewed on November 3; follow the midterm election odds tracker for changing prices and check that the market is still open.
- Balance of power: House control and Senate control are separate markets. Kalshi also lists a four-outcome congressional-control market, covering the possible Democratic/Republican combinations across the two chambers. A congressional sweep here means winning both chambers.
- Battleground races: Start with the Maine U.S. Senate race, Texas U.S. Senate listings in the Polymarket US midterms hub, or the Texas governor race on Kalshi. Read whether the contract asks about the winning candidate or party.
- Turnout and seat totals: Kalshi's U.S. House turnout market and Polymarket US race props include turnout contracts. Some use vote-count ranges, others a threshold for a particular race. Check what is counted and the named results source; these are not necessarily a percentage of eligible voters. Party seat-total markets ask a different question from who controls a chamber.
Three Tips for Trading Political Markets
Keep these three rules in your back pocket before the next poll or breaking-news alert lights up the board:
- Read polls and markets together: Polls reflect responses gathered during a stated fieldwork period. Trading prices can react to new information while the market is open, before the next poll is published. Faster does not mean more accurate: thin trading, enthusiasm and overreaction can all move a price.
- Use news alerts, then check the story: Follow reliable battleground reporters and election officials. Verify a headline before trading, and remember other traders may already have reacted. Review any pending limit orders after major news: yesterday's acceptable price may no longer fit your view.
- Shop for the best executable price: If you are eligible to use both platforms, compare matching contracts. Buying at 48¢ instead of 55¢ saves $7 on 100 contracts before fees. That comparison only holds if the outcome and settlement rules match and enough contracts are available at those prices. Include fees in the total cost before deciding.
Frequently Asked Questions
Eligible U.S. users can trade election contracts through regulated exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket US. In 2024, a federal district court set aside the CFTC order blocking Kalshi's congressional-control contracts. The October 2 appeals-court decision declined to pause that ruling during the appeal; it did not decide the appeal's merits. Access still depends on the platform, product and location. Check Kalshi's eligibility requirements or Polymarket US terms before registering.
No. You can fund your Kalshi account and trade in U.S. dollars using supported payment methods, including a bank transfer. Crypto deposits are an optional funding route, not a requirement.
You can try to sell before settlement while the market remains open. If you buy at 40¢ and buyers will take your contracts at 62¢, the sale produces a 22¢ gain per contract before fees. You could also have to sell at a loss, or find too few buyers. Selling a position and withdrawing the money are separate steps; deposit-clearing times and account restrictions can still apply.
