NFL AI Predictions Week 4: ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Game

Both offenses need to show that last week’s improvement can last. Pittsburgh scored 30 against Cincinnati after managing 23 points across its first two games. Cleveland has allowed nine sacks and converted only 11 of 36 third downs this season, giving the Steelers a chance to disrupt Deshaun Watson without needing their own offense to win a shootout.

We have Pittsburgh winning 21–19, which leaves Browns +2.5 as the spread pick. Cleveland’s seven sacks suggest Aaron Rodgers will face pressure of his own, and the two-point projection gives the home underdog a little room. Our combined 40 points put us on Over 38.5, although neither selection has much separation from the line.

One better defensive week does not erase the Colts’ early problems. Indianapolis held Houston to 17 points after allowing 74 in its first two games. Washington has conceded 92 points through three outings, so Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor should have opportunities in London. The Commanders showed they can answer offensively in their 33–31 win over Seattle.

Our neutral-site forecast is Colts 27, Commanders 24, leading to Washington +3.5 and Over 47.5. Jayden Daniels is expected to practice in London, but that does not confirm his availability. The model’s Daniels and Marcus Mariota scenarios both produce the same 27–24 score, keeping the picks consistent while Washington’s quarterback decision remains open.

Tennessee has to find offense before Baltimore can turn this into a chase. The Titans have scored just 37 points this season and managed only seven last week. Baltimore has scored 92, with Lamar Jackson and the running game offering a difficult assignment for a defense that has otherwise kept Tennessee competitive.

The model calls for Ravens 27, Titans 17. That is a clear Baltimore win, but it still makes Tennessee +11.5 our ATS pick. The Titans’ defense has allowed 59 points across three games, giving the underdog a better case than its offense would suggest. Our 44-point projection also lands just above 43.5 for an Over pick.

Buffalo can win without asking Josh Allen to carry every possession. The Bills have scored 101 points through three games and have been productive on the ground. New England has managed just 36 points and comes off a 35–6 loss at Jacksonville. The Patriots need sustained offense to keep Allen from getting repeated chances against a tiring defense.

We project Bills 27, Patriots 20, enough for Buffalo -6.5. New England has allowed nine sacks, and Buffalo’s defense has recorded nine, making protection a central part of Drake Maye’s assignment. The forecast gives the Patriots a rebound from last week’s six-point outing without asking them to match Buffalo, with Under 48.5 completing the picks.

Chicago’s running game gives it a useful starting point while the quarterback decision develops. The Bears have averaged roughly 5.4 yards per rushing attempt this season. The Jets have struggled to establish the same balance, averaging about 3.4, which puts more responsibility on Geno Smith against a defense coming off a seven-point performance versus Philadelphia.

Our forecast is Bears 27, Jets 20, supporting Chicago -3.5 and Over 42.5. Caleb Williams’ hamstring and the choice between Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent still need monitoring, but all three quarterback scenarios produce the same displayed score. Chicago is coming off a short week; its ability to keep the offense out of obvious passing situations is the stronger reason to back the home team.

Cincinnati’s pass rush is the clearest obstacle to another productive Jacksonville afternoon. The Bengals have 10 sacks in three games, while the Jaguars have allowed only four. Trevor Lawrence comes off a 35–6 win, but a trip to face Joe Burrow should demand considerably more than Jacksonville needed against New England.

The model favors the Jaguars 26–24, making Jacksonville +2.5 our best pick. Its defense has allowed only 36 points this season, giving the visitors a foundation even if Burrow moves the ball more effectively than their previous opponents. The forecast still allows both offenses to reach the mid-20s, with Under 51.5 getting the nod against a projected total of 50.

Houston’s protection has to improve for its offense to take advantage of this matchup. The Texans have allowed 10 sacks and scored only 23 points over the past two weeks. Dallas has generated just two sacks through three games, so C.J. Stroud has a chance to operate with less disruption than he has faced lately.

Our Texans 24, Cowboys 22 prediction makes Dallas +2.5 the ATS pick. Dak Prescott’s offense has scored 88 points this season, and the Cowboys have allowed only three sacks, setting up a useful test against Houston’s 11-sack defense. We expect the Texans to recover some offensive production, but the projected total of 46 still points to Under 47.5.

The Giants need more from their offense than they showed in a 12–7 win over Tennessee. Jameis Winston remains the starting point with Jaxson Dart out for the regular season. Arizona offers an opportunity after allowing 81 points in three games, but New York has scored only 18 across its past two outings.

We have the Cardinals winning 21–20, which makes Giants +1.5 the spread selection. Arizona scored 30 against San Francisco last week, yet its defense allowed 36 and has not supplied much margin for error. The model expects a lower-scoring game here, with the 41-point projection supporting Under 44.5. Both the outright and spread calls are close.

Philadelphia needs a much cleaner offensive performance after Monday’s loss in Chicago. The Eagles scored seven points and now have a short turnaround against a Rams team that has moved the ball efficiently. Los Angeles has its own frustration to address after scoring 26 in Denver and still coming away with a loss.

Our projection is Rams 23, Eagles 20. We are taking Philadelphia +3.5, with home field and a field-goal forecast giving the Eagles a narrow ATS case despite the outright pick going to Los Angeles. Philadelphia has allowed eight sacks this season, so protecting Jalen Hurts is central to that response. The combined 43 points leave a small lean to Under 43.5.

Green Bay’s difficulty staying on the field gives Tampa Bay a route to the upset. The Packers have converted 10 of 36 third downs and scored only 56 points through three games. Their running game has also struggled, which is an awkward fit against a Buccaneers defense allowing roughly 3.3 yards per rushing attempt.

We project Buccaneers 24, Packers 23, backing Tampa Bay +3.5 and an outright home win. The concern is protection: Tampa Bay has allowed 13 sacks, so Baker Mayfield cannot afford another afternoon spent recovering from negative plays. The 47-point forecast is well above 40.5, making Over the total pick despite both offenses’ uneven starts.

Minnesota’s pass rush is a difficult matchup for a Miami offense still searching for its footing. The Vikings have 14 sacks in three games, while the Dolphins have allowed nine and scored only 36 points. Kyler Murray’s offense should also benefit if Miami continues struggling to generate pressure after going three games without a sack.

The model gives Minnesota a 24–16 win, but that margin points to Dolphins +10.5. Miami does not need to solve every offensive issue to stay inside a double-digit spread, although Malik Willis will have to avoid giving Minnesota short fields. Our projected total of 40 also puts us on Over 38.5, with the Vikings doing most of the scoring.

The Raiders’ strong start gets a meaningful test against Kansas City’s defense. Las Vegas scored 35 in New Orleans and has 88 points through three games. The Chiefs have allowed only 50, including 10 in Miami last week, and their own offense can put pressure on Kirk Cousins to sustain that production.

We have Kansas City winning 24–19, just enough for Chiefs -4.5. The Raiders’ 10 sacks make protecting Patrick Mahomes a priority, but Kansas City has allowed only four so far. That matchup gives Las Vegas a way to compete without making it the outright pick. The 43-point forecast supports Under 47.5.

Seattle’s defensive matchup looks more favorable than last week’s final score suggests. The Seahawks gave up 33 points in Washington, but had allowed just 17 across their first two games. The Chargers have scored only 44 points this season and have allowed eight sacks, leaving Justin Herbert with little room for stalled possessions.

Our Seahawks 27, Chargers 17 forecast supports Seattle -7.5. Sam Darnold’s offense has scored 75 points through three weeks and has allowed only three sacks, giving the home team a stronger base for sustained scoring. We are also taking Over 42.5, with the projected total of 44 allowing for a modest Chargers contribution rather than a full offensive turnaround.

Denver has to disrupt a San Francisco passing game that has barely been touched. The 49ers have not allowed a sack through three games and have scored 98 points. Denver’s eight sacks suggest its defense can make that protection work harder, but Brock Purdy has been operating with the time needed to keep the offense productive.

The model projects 49ers 26, Broncos 20, putting San Francisco -2.5 among our stronger spread leans. Denver scored 30 against the Rams after managing 30 across its first two games, so the forecast asks the Broncos to maintain some improvement against a different defense. Our total of 46 lands just below the line, giving us Under 46.5.

Detroit’s defense has left its offense with plenty to do. The Lions have scored 93 points but allowed 95 through three games. Carolina has produced 89 points of its own, although its last two outings were less explosive than the 37-point opener. Bryce Young should have opportunities if Detroit continues allowing opponents to stay in games.

Our Lions 27, Panthers 24 prediction makes Carolina +3.5 the ATS choice. The concern for the Panthers is a defense allowing nearly six yards per rushing attempt, which gives Detroit a way to control possessions without relying entirely on Jared Goff. A projected total of 51 narrowly supports Over 50.5 in the Sunday night matchup.

Michael Penix Jr. changed Atlanta’s offensive outlook in his return. The Falcons scored 35 at Green Bay after managing only 16 points in their first two games. New Orleans has allowed 83 points this season, but its own offense has scored 81, giving Tyler Shough a chance to answer at home.

We project Saints 24, Falcons 20, leading to New Orleans -2.5. Atlanta’s 35-point performance is encouraging, but the model stops short of treating one strong game as its new weekly scoring level. The Saints have allowed 10 sacks, so their protection still matters against a Falcons defense that can challenge the run. Our combined 44 points support Under 48.5.