The winless Chargers limp into Lumen Field as 6.5-point underdogs against a 2-1 Seattle squad looking to rebound.
My early Chargers vs. Seahawks prediction targets a tough matchup for Justin Herbert and a total that's drifted too low.
Check out more NFL picks before Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on Oct. 4.
Chargers vs Seahawks predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Chargers vs Seahawks spread pick: Seahawks -6.5
I lean toward the Seattle Seahawks -6.5. The Los Angeles Chargers were +7 in Buffalo on Sunday, and I have Seattle higher than the Bills in my power ratings, so the Seahawks should be laying at least a touchdown.
Los Angeles couldn't cover in a 24-16 loss despite winning the turnover battle 5-1, which is almost impossible.
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh has whiffed on his offseason coaching hires, including offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel and pass game specialist Adam Gase, while QB Justin Herbert has struggled badly.
This is the furthest thing from a get-right game for the Chargers. Herbert now faces a Seattle defense that leads the NFL in yards per play allowed, making it difficult to envision Los Angeles' offense suddenly finding its footing.
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Early Chargers vs Seahawks total pick: Over 42.5
The market is backing the Under, pulling the number down from a 44.5-point opener, which means I'm now leaning toward the Over 42.5 because I have the Seahawks winning 26-19.
Eventually, Herbert will play well, and Seattle has scored 31+ points in back-to-back weeks. Plus, Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on pace to repeat as the NFL Offensive Player of the Year, leading the league in catches, receiving yards, and touchdown catches.
Lastly, the market has pushed this total below two key numbers: 44 is the most common NFL total, and 43 is the third-most common.
Between this number falling below both and Los Angeles's offense being at its lowest point, I'd rather fade the market than follow it.
Chargers vs Seahawks odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Chargers vs Seahawks spread: Seahawks -6.5
- Chargers vs Seahawks moneyline: Chargers 28%, Seahawks 75%
- Chargers vs Seahawks Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Chargers vs Seahawks
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Seattle, Washington
- Venue: Lumen Field
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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