Munich gets a compelling clash this Sunday as the Patriots face the Lions at FC Bayern Munich Stadium, with kickoff set for 9:30 a.m. ET.
My Patriots vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer predictions target a pair of vulnerable pass defenses, including a Detroit unit that has surrendered a bunch of touchdowns to tight ends. There's also a first-TD angle worth exploring.
For more Week 11 predictions and analysis, check out our latest NFL picks.
Best Patriots vs Lions anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Hunter Henry |
28% |
 Jameson Williams |
32% |
| First TD: Corey Kiner |
11% |
| Long shot: Mack Hollins |
26% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Patriots touchdown pick: Hunter Henry
New England TE Hunter Henry's anytime touchdown price should be at least 33%. Henry leads the Patriots with 32 catches and has scored twice, giving Drake Maye a trusted target in a matchup I expect New England to exploit.
Detroit has allowed the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends (11), and the next-closest team, the Washington Commanders, have played one more game. The middle of the Lions' defense is also thinner without LB Jack Campbell, who is recovering from a neck injury.
Between Henry's role, Maye's upside, and Detroit's issues covering tight ends, this is my favorite New England touchdown prop.
Lions touchdown pick: Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown are tied for Detroit's lead with five touchdown catches apiece, but Williams offers a much bigger anytime touchdown payout than the Sun God.
New England's starting outside corners, Charles Woods and Christian Gonzalez, both have failing Pro Football Focus (PFF) defensive grades. Worse, the Patriots have allowed the most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.
With the same touchdown production as St. Brown and a friendlier price against this secondary, I'll invest in Williams' anytime touchdown prop up to 35%.
First touchdown scorer pick: Corey Kiner
Corey Kiner's first-touchdown price is worth a look up to 15% with TreVeyon Henderson ruled out and Rhamondre Stevenson dealing with a knee injury. That puts Kiner in line for a bigger role, especially if New England wants to manage Stevenson's workload.
Kiner has made his opportunities count, leading the Patriots with 4.9 yards per carry and already finding the end zone this season. The matchup helps, too.
Detroit ranks 29th in yards before contact allowed per carry, according to NFL Pro. If New England gets near the goal line, Kiner could cash in early.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Mack Hollins
There's no way Patriots WR Mack Hollins should have the eighth-best odds in this market.
According to PFF, Hollins is New England's highest-graded wide receiver, ranking 18th in the NFL among 120 qualifiers. That's impressive production relative to his market price, especially with Drake Maye playing at such a high level.
If Brown returns, he could serve as a decoy and draw Detroit's top cornerback, potentially opening things up for Hollins. Given his PFF grade, role in New England's passing attack, and attractive payout, Hollins' anytime touchdown prop should be at least 30%.
Patriots vs Lions touchdown combo
I'm combining Jahmyr Gibbs' and Hunter Henry's anytime touchdown props for a 5.43x payout.
We've already glazed Henry enough, but Detroit's defense keeps forgetting tight ends are eligible receivers. The Lions have allowed 11 touchdowns to the position.
Meanwhile, Gibbs is making an Offensive Player of the Year odds case with 11 total touchdowns (nine rushing, two receiving), scoring in seven of eight games. He's also handled 92% of Detroit's red-zone carries this season.
Picking New England's touchdown scorer is a toss-up. Gibbs finding the end zone? That's about as close to a sure thing as you'll get.
- TD picks: 22-49, -10.83 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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