The New Orleans Saints are -2.5 home favorites over the Atlanta Falcons ahead of their NFC South tilt on Monday Night Football at the Caesars Superdome on Monday, Oct. 5, as I make my early Falcons vs. Saints predictions.
My NFL picks lean into Atlanta and the Under in this Week 4 prime-time finale.
Falcons vs Saints predictions
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Early Falcons vs Saints spread pick: Falcons +2.5
The Atlanta Falcons hold a rest edge after their dominant win over the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, and I also value the offensive line's health and stability in front of quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Penix aired it out for 10.2 yards per attempt with an elite 86.4 adjusted completion percentage and the highest success rate of Week 3, and he now takes that into Monday Night Football.
Atlanta's rushing attack could also benefit if New Orleans Saints linebacker Pete Werner (neck) is unable to suit up or playing at less than 100% after exiting against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.
Additionally, the Falcons rank sixth in pressure percentage and first in PFF pass rush grade. The Saints check in at 23rd in PFF pass block grade, and New Orleans QB Tyler Shough has been sacked on 20% of his pressures through three weeks.
Count on Atlanta hanging around and taking a run at a road upset over New Orleans in Week 4.
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Early Falcons vs Saints total pick: Under 48.5
This total is climbing early after opening at 46.5 and getting a look-ahead number of 45.5 depending on your stop.
That makes sense because of the solid offensive start for New Orleans (27.0 points per game), in addition to the boost Penix brought to Atlanta's attack.
Still, the NFC South rivals have played to the Under in each of their past three meetings, with none reaching 40 points. Atlanta head coach Kevin Stefanski will surely aim to keep Shough and the New Orleans offense on the sideline while leaning on his running game Monday.
Of course, Atlanta also ranks sixth in PFF defense grade while allowing the eighth-lowest EPA per play, so I expect a few more offensive hiccups from the Saints in Week 4.
Falcons vs Saints odds
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- Falcons vs Saints spread: Saints -2.5
- Falcons vs Saints moneyline: Falcons 44%, Saints 56%
- Falcons vs Saints Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Falcons vs Saints
- Date: Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: New Orleans, LA
- Venue: Caesars Superdome
- TV: ESPN, ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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