C.J. Stroud and the winless Houston Texans are priced as an early 2.5-point home favorite on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Reliant Stadium.
Kalshi is giving respect to Houston at home, but my Cowboys vs. Texans prediction expects Dallas to get the better of its state rivals.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 4.
Cowboys vs Texans predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Cowboys vs Texans spread pick: Cowboys +2.5
Play up to 56%.
The Dallas Cowboys may be 1-2, but they're worth backing against the spread in Houston. Dallas just pushed a very strong Baltimore Ravens team to the wire, losing on a last-minute field goal. Through three games, the Cowboys have a +6 point differential, while the Houston Texans sit at -21.
Although America's Team has an injury-ravaged defense, the Texans haven't proven much of anything, especially offensively. C.J. Stroud and this attack have managed to score just 23 points across the last two weeks.
The market is still banking on Houston turning things around, and home-field advantage has helped make the Texans the favorite here. However, I expect Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense to have plenty of success at Reliant Stadium, with the Cowboys keeping this inside the number and quite possibly winning outright.
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Early Cowboys vs Texans total pick: Over 47.5
Play up to 57%.
The Over is appealing at 47.5 in a matchup featuring two vulnerable secondaries. Dallas is already dealing with a slew of injuries on defense, and Houston has leaned heavily on Stroud and the passing game through the first three weeks.
The Texans have struggled to turn that production into points, but this could be the matchup where that changes. Dallas has allowed seven passing touchdowns already, and its secondary left Rio extremely banged up.
On the other side, Prescott and the Cowboys' passing attack should have opportunities against a Houston defense allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Dallas has also thrived through the air so far, making this a favorable matchup against a Texans pass defense that ranks 25th in the NFL.
With both teams capable of moving the ball downfield, I'm leaning Over 47.5 in what could turn into a shootout.
Cowboys vs Texans odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Cowboys vs Texans spread: Texans -2.5
- Cowboys vs Texans moneyline: Cowboys 44%, Texans 56%
- Cowboys vs Texans Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Cowboys vs Texans
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Houston, Texas
- Venue: Reliant Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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