Two teams coming off massive wins in Week 3 will clash on Sunday in London as the Indianapolis Colts visit the Washington Commanders as an early 3.5-point road favorite.
My Colts vs Commanders prediction expects Indianapolis to keep it rolling, as Marcus Mariota will struggle to replicate his last performance.
Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 4.
Colts vs Commanders predictions
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Early Colts vs Commanders spread pick: Colts -3.5
Play up to 55%.
I expect a close game at a neutral site in London, with both teams traveling overseas. The Indianapolis Colts didn't play their best offensive game in Week 3, but Daniel Jones did enough to get his team over the line against the Houston Texans. Plus, Indy's defense improved significantly, holding Houston to just 237 total yards.
Yes, Marcus Mariota just led the Washington Commanders to an upset win over the Seahawks, but Washington was outgained by nearly 200 yards. Sloppy mistakes by the defending champs also allowed the Commanders to take advantage in the turnover department.
Jones has moved the football efficiently overall despite some fumble issues, and I expect him to bounce back against a Commanders defense that has allowed 30+ points in back-to-back games.
If this moves above 5.5, I'd take Washington against the spread, but with the line sitting around a field goal right now, I'm backing the Colts.
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Early Colts vs Commanders total pick: Over 46.5 points
Play up to 55%.
Although the Colts made strides on the defensive end, they're far from a finished product, and Washington showed it can score even without Jayden Daniels under center. I do believe we'll see offense on both sides.
Two of the three games for both teams have comfortably cashed the Over. Indianapolis is averaging 26.5 points scored and 37 allowed, while Washington is at 21 scored and 30.5 allowed. It's obviously a small sample size early on, but that will prove to be the norm.
The London fans should get their money's worth.
Colts vs Commanders odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Colts vs Commanders spread: Colts -3.5
- Colts vs Commanders moneyline: Colts 62%, Commanders 39%
- Colts vs Commanders Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Colts vs Commanders
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026, 9:30 a.m. ET
- City: London, England
- Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
- TV: NFL Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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