Patriots vs Bills   Picks & Props

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A running game script is suggested by the Bills being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 53.5% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Josh Allen is expected by the projection model to average the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.1. . Josh Allen's passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 71.2% to 65.8%.

With a 50.6% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football has been the New England Patriots.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are predicted by our trusted projection set to run just 61.0 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 3rd-fewest yards in the NFL (just 187.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. While James Cook has accounted for 68.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Buffalo's run game in this game at 58.5%.. Since the start of last season, the stout Patriots run defense has allowed a puny 95.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

A running game script is suggested by the Bills being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to run on 46.5% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.. This week, Josh Allen is anticipated by the projection model to accumulate the most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 8.3. . After accounting for 19.7% of his team's carries last season, Josh Allen has had a larger role in the rushing attack this season, now accounting for 27.7%.. Josh Allen has picked up 40.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to quarterbacks (100th percentile).

With a 49.4% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 4th-most run-focused offense in the NFL has been the Patriots.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Bills run defense has been torched for a whopping 128.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-worst in the NFL.. The Bills defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. James Cook has run a route on 44.3% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, James Cook grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging a superb 2.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the shaky New England Patriots pass defense has yielded a staggering 84.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Hunter Henry has run a route on 73.7% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.. In this contest, Hunter Henry is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.9 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 38.0 per game.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. With an elite 83.0% Route Participation Rate (79th percentile) since the start of last season, DJ Moore has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.. In this game, DJ Moore is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 6.8 targets.. DJ Moore's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.2% to 66.6%.. The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (67.5%).

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Mack Hollins has totaled a whopping 57.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among WRs.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.. With an exceptional 38.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Mack Hollins ranks among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.. Mack Hollins's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 71.5% to 82.6%.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. James Cook has run a route on 44.3% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the shaky New England Patriots pass defense has yielded a staggering 84.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's unit has been lousy since the start of last season, projecting as the 9th-worst in the league.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. With an elite 83.0% Route Participation Rate (79th percentile) since the start of last season, DJ Moore has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.. In this game, DJ Moore is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 6.8 targets.. DJ Moore's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.2% to 66.6%.. The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (67.5%).

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. While James Cook has accounted for 68.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Buffalo's run game in this game at 58.5%.

With a 50.6% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football has been the New England Patriots.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are predicted by our trusted projection set to run just 61.0 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in football versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (72.7% Adjusted Completion%).

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.. The Buffalo cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-worst CB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.6% red zone pass rate.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.. The Buffalo cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-worst CB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. With an exceptional ratio of 1.43 per game (76th percentile), Josh Allen places as one of the best TD throwers in the league since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in football versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (72.7% Adjusted Completion%).. Since the start of last season, the daunting Patriots run defense has given up a feeble 0.65 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. The predictive model expects DJ Moore to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (22.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).. As it relates to air yards, DJ Moore ranks in the towering 78th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 63.0 per game.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. DJ Moore's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.2% to 66.6%.

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.6% red zone pass rate.. While Hunter Henry has been responsible for 11.1% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in New England's passing attack near the end zone this week at 20.5%.. As it relates to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 38.0 per game.. Hunter Henry's 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 86th percentile for TEs.

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.6% red zone pass rate.. Mack Hollins has totaled a whopping 57.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among WRs.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.. Mack Hollins's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 71.5% to 82.6%.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. While James Cook has been responsible for 56.2% of his team's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a less important option in Buffalo's ground game near the end zone in this contest at 41.9%.. When it comes to air yards, James Cook grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging a superb 2.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. James Cook ranks in the 76th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 0.09 per game.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats propped up a bit) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with more favorable conditions this week.. While Dalton Kincaid has accounted for 8.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Buffalo's passing attack near the goal line in this contest at 18.7%.. As it relates to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the towering 96th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 45.0 per game.. Dalton Kincaid has been in the 91st percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 38.6 mark since the start of last season.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.6% red zone pass rate.. While Rhamondre Stevenson has garnered 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of New England's passing offense near the end zone in this week's game at 8.0%.. Rhamondre Stevenson has notched a massive 9.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).. Rhamondre Stevenson's 18.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for running backs.

A running game script is suggested by the Bills being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 53.5% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Josh Allen is expected by the projection model to average the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.1. . The New England cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.