The undefeated Minnesota Vikings host the winless Miami Dolphins in Week 4, with Minnesota favored by 9.5 and the total at 39.5.
My early Dolphins vs. Vikings prediction to kick off my Week 4 NFL picks favors the home team by 10+ points despite also backing the Under on Sunday, Oct. 4.
Miami has lost every game by double digits, and now De’Von Achane is out for the season. That leaves the Dolphins’ practice squad-level roster facing a 3-0 team whose defense has done a lot of heavy lifting.
Dolphins vs Vikings predictions
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Early Dolphins vs Vikings spread pick: Vikings -9.5
I keep hearing about how well-coached the Miami Dolphins are and how hard they play. Cool. They’ve also lost three games by double digits and haven’t covered a spread. Miami’s offense was already at the bottom of the league, and now their top playmaker, De'Von Achane, is gone for the season.
The Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 against the spread, and Brian Flores’ defense has been the engine. The Vikings have allowed just 4.6 yards per play, good enough for fourth in the NFL, with the unit also ranking first on third down and in the red zone.
There’s an obvious revenge angle here too, with Flores getting to potentially embarrass the team that fired him. I don’t expect Miami’s Achane-less offense to have many answers for its former head coach.
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Early Dolphins vs Vikings total pick: Under 39.5
This is a low total for a game with a 9.5-point spread, but something resembling Miami’s 24-10 loss to Kansas City would cash both picks, which is very realistic.
The Dolphins have scored three touchdowns in three games, and Minnesota has allowed three offensive touchdowns in the same span. Without Achane, Miami’s already thin offense loses the one player most capable of creating something from nothing. The Dolphins offense won’t catch their former head coach sleeping, as this isn’t a spot where Minnesota will play down to the competition.
The Vikings should get opportunities against this Miami defense, but their own offense has been painfully slow. Minnesota ranks last in yards per play, and they didn't get a boost from Kyler Murray in his return to the lineup. There’s also some familiarity here for Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley from his time as the Packers' defensive coordinator.
Minnesota can build a comfortable lead without putting on an offensive clinic. I’m expecting points from the Vikings, just not a track meet.
Dolphins vs Vikings odds
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- Dolphins vs Vikings spread: Vikings -9.5
- Dolphins vs Vikings moneyline: Dolphins 17%, Vikings 83%
- Dolphins vs Vikings Over/Under: 39.5
How to watch Dolphins vs Vikings
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, 5:05 p.m. ET
- City: Minneapolis, Minn.
- Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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