Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson just upped his stock in the NFL Coach of the Year markets.
With Chicago missing starting QB Caleb Williams in Week 3, Johnson orchestrated a masterful gameplan with veteran Case Keenum at the wheel.
The Bears offense sliced and diced Philadelphia’s vaunted defense on Monday and now have a short turnaround before hosting the New York Jets in Week 4.
My Jets vs. Bears predictions weigh the opening odds and initial market moves, giving my best early leans and NFL picks for Oct. 4.
Jets vs Bears predictions
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Early Jets vs Bears spread pick: Bears -3.5
Look-ahead lines had the Chicago Bears as 2.5-point home chalk before the events of Monday Night Football. After that impressive performance, the market moved through the key number of a field goal and sits Chicago -3.5.
This feels like a bit of a knee-jerk reaction, however, the New York Jets could be down bodies for this non-conference clash.
Running back Breece Hall, who’s a weapon on the ground and through the air, is questionable with a thigh injury. Guard Dylan Parham also went down in Week 3, leaving a big gap on a thinning Jets offensive line.
As solid as Chicago’s offense looked on MNF, the Bears defense was dialed in. They constantly hounded Jalen Hurts and had Philadelphia in plenty of third-and-long scenarios. Chicago sits Top 8 in pressure rate and hurries, with that pass rush generating chaos and leading to six takeaways.
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Early Jets vs Bears total pick: Over 43.5
The Jets defense struggled against a more dynamic offense from Detroit in Week 3, giving up 381 yards and 24 first downs while ranking 29th in EPA allowed per play.
Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his play calling is a problem, even with Case Keenum under center. Chicago spread the ball around to eight different receivers while also mixing in unique run calls. With confidence in the QB3 rising, expect Johnson to take the training wheels off in Week 4.
The Jets offense has been a surprise to some to start 2026. With Hall’s health in question, the offense leans on veteran QB Geno Smith. He’s been steady in the opening three games and faces a man-anchored secondary from Chicago.
Smith has shown significant splits when it comes to success versus man compared to zone coverage throughout his career. He’s currently No. 1 in CPOE and sits just outside of the Top 10 in a number of other QB metrics.
I’m leaning Over with the extended forecast for Soldier Field looking good, with gusts coming in below 20 mph for Sunday.
Jets vs Bears odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Jets vs Bears spread: Bears -3.5
- Jets vs Bears moneyline: Jets 37%, Bears 63%
- Jets vs Bears Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Jets vs Bears
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Chicago, IL
- Venue: Soldier Field
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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