The San Francisco 49ers lead the NFL in offensive EPA per play, while the Dallas Cowboys rank second-worst defensively, setting up a potential barn-burner Sunday.
My 49ers vs. Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer predictions explore favorable matchups, overlooked scoring opportunities, and a combo that could capitalize on both defenses' weaknesses.
Check out our other NFL picks for Week 10.
Best 49ers vs Cowboys anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Christian McCaffrey 2+ touchdowns |
35% |
 CeeDee Lamb |
53% |
| First TD: CeeDee Lamb |
12% |
| Long shot: Jordan Watkins |
18% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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49ers touchdown pick: Christian McCaffrey 2+ touchdowns
I'd invest in Christian McCaffrey to score 2+ touchdowns up to 40%.
CMC has scored twice in three of eight games this season. The Cowboys have the second-worst defensive EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com, and allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
San Francisco leads the NFL in offensive EPA per play. McCaffrey should have scoring opportunities against a defense that struggles to keep opponents out of the end zone. He can punish Dallas on the ground or through the air.
McCaffrey's ability to score both rushing and receiving touchdowns gives him multiple paths to cash against Dallas' vulnerable defense.
Cowboys touchdown pick: CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee Lamb's anytime touchdown price (up to 57%) is worth it because Dak Prescott usually balls out at home and, low-key, San Francisco's pass defense sucks.
The Niners rank third-worst in average target separation allowed and quarterback pressure rate, per Pro.NFL.com. Their starting outside corners, Renardo Green and Deommodore Lenoir, missed Wednesday and Thursday practices before returning Friday on a limited basis. Both are questionable for Sunday.
More importantly, Lamb has seven touchdown catches in nine games, scoring in five contests. He also has 108 targets, the first player to hit triple digits this season.
With Prescott getting time to throw and San Francisco struggling to cover receivers, Lamb should have plenty of chances to find the end zone.
First touchdown scorer pick: CeeDee Lamb
I'm doubling up on Lamb scoring props, and his first touchdown price is enticing at up to 15%. I like the Cowboys +4, and I'm expecting Dak and CeeDee to tear up the 49ers.
Lamb scored the first of the game against the Washington Commanders in Week 2 and Dallas' first touchdown against the New York Giants in the regular-season opener.
Ultimately, given my projection for CeeDee's usage and production, his 15% price to score first is my favorite in this market.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Jordan Watkins
I love this price for WR Jordan Watkins, who played 77% of San Francisco's offensive snaps last week against the Raiders and caught four passes, including a 37-yard touchdown.
Watkins should stay involved Sunday with Mike Evans ruled out. Deebo Samuel Sr. is returning from a three-game absence and could be on a snap count, while newly signed Keenan Allen is still learning the offense.
Also, Watkins leads the team in receiving success rate (among pass-catchers with at least three targets) and won't be the focus of Dallas' garbage defense with George Kittle and McCaffrey on the field.
I'd play Watkins' anytime touchdown prop up to 23%.
49ers vs Cowboys touchdown combo
Give me CeeDee Lamb's and Jordan Watkins' anytime touchdown props because I like the payout in a game that has shootout written all over it.
Dallas ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, while San Francisco's lack of quarterback pressure could give Dak Prescott opportunities to attack its secondary.
Lamb remains Prescott's No. 1 weapon, while Brock Purdy leads the NFL in QBR and Watkins is coming off a 37-yard touchdown against the Raiders.
If both offenses trade punches Sunday, I want a piece of each passing attack. Lamb is the headliner, while Watkins boosts this combo's payout.
- TD picks: 22-49, -10.83 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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