The Green Bay Packers head on the road in Week 4 as a 3.5-point favorite against the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who will look to right the pirate ship. The kickoff at Raymond James Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.
However, with Baker Mayfield injured, my Packers vs. Buccaneers prediction sees clear value in backing Green Bay.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 4.
Packers vs Buccaneers predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Packers vs Buccaneers spread pick: Packers -3.5
Play up to 58%.
The Green Bay Packers have been far from convincing through the first three weeks, but this looks like an ideal bounce-back spot for Matt LaFleur's team. Green Bay is coming off a brutal 35-14 loss to the Falcons, but will have 10 days to regroup before facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay's quarterback situation is also a major concern. Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb in the Week 3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings and could miss this matchup, potentially leaving rookie Jalon Daniels to make his first NFL start. That would be a significant downgrade for a Buccaneers offense that has already struggled to put points on the board consistently.
Green Bay has its own issues, particularly along the offensive line and in the running game, but Jordan Love gives the Packers a clear advantage under center if Mayfield is sidelined.
Against a Tampa Bay team that has dropped each of its first three games, I'm backing Green Bay to respond.
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Early Packers vs Buccaneers total pick: Over 40.5
Play up to 55%.
Neither team is lighting it up offensively, but 40.5 is a low enough total for me to like the Over. Green Bay will capitalize on Tampa Bay's defensive inconsistencies, especially after a poor offensive showing against Atlanta.
Even if Daniels is under center for the Buccaneers, Tampa Bay won't need to contribute a huge number if the Packers can get into the 24-27 point range. That's certainly attainable against a defense giving up 28 points per game.
Green Bay hasn't exactly been stout defensively, either. The Packers are allowing 30.3 PPG, and both Minnesota and Atlanta scored 30+ against them in Green Bay's two losses.
At 40.5, I'll lean to the Over, but if this total climbs to around 45.5 or higher, the Under will offer better value.
Packers vs Buccaneers odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Packers vs Buccaneers spread: Packers -3.5
- Packers vs Buccaneers moneyline: Packers 60%, Buccaneers 40%
- Packers vs Buccaneers Over/Under: 40.5
How to watch Packers vs Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Tampa Bay, Florida
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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