Kansas City 1st AFC West3-0

Las Vegas 2nd AFC West3-0

4:25PM ET 4:25PM ET · Oct 04, 2026

Chiefs vs Raiders Picks & Props

KC vs LV Picks

NFL Picks

Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes o238.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 261 (Over)

Best Odds

o235.5 -120

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o241.5 -111

o236.5 -114

o235.5 -120

o237.5 -115

o240.5 -105

o238.5 -115

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 128.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 58.4 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an excellent record of 266.0 adjusted passing yards per game (100th percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands among the leading quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.

-120 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Anytime Touchdown

Kenneth Walker III Score a Touchdown (Yes: -175)

Projection 0.83 (Yes)

Best Odds

-160

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

-175

-190

-180

-175

-165

-179

-160

-175

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 128.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 58.4 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects Kenneth Walker III to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game near the end zone in this week's game (71.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (88.2% in games he has played).

GAME & PLAYER PROPS	PROJECTIONS				ANALYSIS	BEST ODDS
SPREAD LV +4.5 spread 4.29 PROJECTION -0.2 DIFFERENCE -0.53% EV Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5 Best odds DraftKings Best Odds +4.5 -108 +4.5 -110 +4.5 -110 +4.5 -108 +4.5 -108 +4.5 -110 +4.5 -108 +4.5 -108 +4.5 -115 +4.5 -110 LV +4.5 spread PROJECTION 4.29 PROJECTION -0.2 DIFFERENCE -0.53% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. +4.5 -108
TOTAL Over 47.5 Total 49.28 OVER PROJECTION +1.8 DIFFERENCE 10.38% EV Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5 Best odds BetMGM Best Odds o47.5 -110 o47.5 -110 o47.5 -115 o47.5 -115 o47.5 -110 o47.5 -110 o48.0 -112 o47.5 -114 o48.5 -105 o47.5 -110 Over 47.5 Total PROJECTION 49.28 OVER PROJECTION +1.8 DIFFERENCE 10.38% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o47.5 -110
PASSING YARDS P. Mahomes (QB) o238.5 Passing Yards 261.00 OVER PROJECTION +22.5 DIFFERENCE 24.89% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook Best Odds o235.5 -120 - - o241.5 -111 o236.5 -114 o235.5 -120 - o237.5 -115 o240.5 -105 o238.5 -115 P. Mahomes (QB) o238.5 Passing Yards PROJECTION 261.00 OVER PROJECTION +22.5 DIFFERENCE 24.89% EV ANALYSIS The model projects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 128.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 58.4 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an excellent record of 266.0 adjusted passing yards per game (100th percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands among the leading quarterbacks in football since the start of last season. o235.5 -120
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN K. Walker III (RB) Anytime Touchdown 0.83 TDs PROJECTION - DIFFERENCE 17.31% EV Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5 Best odds theScore Bet Best Odds -160 -175 -190 -180 -175 -165 - -179 -160 -175 K. Walker III (RB) Anytime Touchdown PROJECTION 0.83 TDs PROJECTION - DIFFERENCE 17.31% EV ANALYSIS The model projects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 128.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 58.4 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects Kenneth Walker III to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game near the end zone in this week's game (71.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (88.2% in games he has played). -160
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN T. Tucker (WR) Anytime Touchdown 0.24 TDs PROJECTION - DIFFERENCE -7.69% EV Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5 Best odds FanDuel Best Odds +320 +310 +235 +285 +320 +265 - +280 +300 +300 T. Tucker (WR) Anytime Touchdown PROJECTION 0.24 TDs PROJECTION - DIFFERENCE -7.69% EV ANALYSIS At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Raiders to pass on 62.0% of their downs: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 128.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Since the start of last season, the porous Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a colossal 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL. +320

Chiefs vs Raiders Picks & Props

KC vs LV Picks

KC vs LV Consensus Picks

52% picking Kansas City

67% picking Kansas City vs Las Vegas to go Over

KC vs LV Props

Recent Form Trends

ROI Trends

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.20 Units / 66% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.90 Units / 12% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+1.05 Units / 3% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+0.90 Units / 3% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.30 Units / 3% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 19 games (-14.65 Units / -70% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 19 games (-12.10 Units / -25% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 19 games (-11.20 Units / -51% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 18 games (-8.10 Units / -39% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 18 games (-7.90 Units / -38% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.30 Units / 11% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 37% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.43 Units / 14% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.15 Units / 19% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.15 Units / 20% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 17 games (-13.20 Units / -67% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have only hit the 1H Team Total Over in 4 of their last 17 games (-9.75 Units / -50% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 19 games (-8.75 Units / -40% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have only covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 16 games (-7.95 Units / -42% ROI)

The Las Vegas Raiders have only hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 19 games (-5.95 Units / -26% ROI)

KC vs LV Top User Picks

'Rossi35' is picking Kansas City to cover (-6.0)

'Rossi35' picks Kansas City vs Las Vegas to go Under (43.5)

'deerkiller' picks Kansas City vs Las Vegas to go Over (43.5)

'deerkiller' is picking Las Vegas to cover (+5.5)

'adamort22' is picking Kansas City to cover (-6.0)

'adamort22' picks Kansas City vs Las Vegas to go Over (43.5)

'JLGiants38' picks Kansas City vs Las Vegas to go Under (43.5)

'JLGiants38' is picking Las Vegas to cover (+6.0)

'rinv49' is picking Kansas City to cover (-6.0)

'rinv49' picks Kansas City vs Las Vegas to go Under (43.5)

'jtrupp51' is picking Kansas City to cover (-5.5)

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