Dolphins vs Vikings   Picks & Props

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The Dolphins are a huge 11-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the league against the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.2% Adjusted Completion%).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins defense has been torched for the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a massive 8.03 yards.. The Dolphins safeties rank as the 4th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Vikings being a massive 11-point favorite this week.. The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. In this game, Kyler Murray is projected by the projection model to accumulate the 7th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 5.5. . Since the start of last season, the deficient Miami Dolphins run defense has given up a staggering 139.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 4th-worst in the NFL.

At the present time, the 2nd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (44.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins.. The predictive model expects Malik Willis to total 6.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance: the 5th-most among all QBs.. Malik Willis has been much more involved in his team's run game this year (20.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (15.0%).. With a fantastic total of 25.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (90th percentile), Malik Willis rates among the leading rushing quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Dolphins are a huge 11-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (61.6% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. While Aaron Jones has garnered 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Minnesota's offense near the goal line this week at 13.4%.. Aaron Jones's 18.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 91st percentile for RBs.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the league against the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.2% Adjusted Completion%).

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (61.6% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the league against the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.2% Adjusted Completion%).. Since the start of last season, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has given up a massive 1.80 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-biggest rate in football.. The Dolphins safeties rank as the 4th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Vikings being a massive 11-point favorite this week.. The model projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see just 121.4 total plays run: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The Vikings have run the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 51.7 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.