The New England Patriots are in a tailspin, and it won't get any easier against Josh Allen. I'm comfortably fading Drake Maye & Co. in my Patriots vs. Bills prediction.
The Buffalo Bills are 6.5-point favorites at home in Highmark Stadium and should dispose of a struggling Patriots team with a major quarterback problem.
Tap into all of my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 4 below.
Patriots vs Bills predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Patriots vs Bills spread pick: Bills -6.5
After watching the New England Patriots through three weeks, there's no way I could muster the courage to invest my hard-earned money on them against the Buffalo Bills.
Drake Maye is a complete tire fire. He hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 1 and already has six interceptions. The Patriots are scoring just 12 points per game, good for last in the NFL, and rank 22nd in total offense. Suffice to say, things haven't gone as planned early on in the year.
Meanwhile, the Bills have over 400 yards per game, rank second in the NFL in total EPA, and Josh Allen is the overwhelming favorite in the NFL MVP odds. Buffalo is also coming off its best defensive performance of the season against the Los Angeles Chargers and is a perfect 3-0 against the spread.
Fire them up with confidence, and play this to 57%.
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Early Patriots vs Bills total pick: Under 48.5
While the Patriots offense has yet to show a sign of life, the defense has been serviceable. New England ranks fifth in total defense and seventh overall in success percentage, which means they can limit Allen enough to cover the Under.
We've all seen Maye's struggles so far this season, and with the Bills' front seven wreaking havoc, I'm leaning on Greg Rosseau & Co. to disrupt Maye enough to get the job done.
These two teams have gone Under in two of the last three matchups in this divisional rivalry. Points will be tough to come by.
Patriots vs Bills odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Patriots vs Bills spread: Bills -6.5 (53%)
- Patriots vs Bills moneyline: Patriots 27%, Bills 73%
- Patriots vs Bills Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Patriots vs Bills
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Buffalo, N.Y.
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- TV: DAZN, NFL Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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