The Kansas City Chiefs are laying 4.5 points against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium, but this AFC West matchup looks tighter than the spread suggests.
My early Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction backs the home underdog and targets a 47.5 total that could be too high.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Oct. 4, with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.
Chiefs vs Raiders predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Chiefs vs Raiders spread pick: Raiders +4.5
I lean toward the Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 because I made them +4 at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Raiders QB Kirk Cousins has an NFL-high nine touchdown passes and ranks 12th in adjusted EPA per play, according to RBSDM. Las Vegas All-Pro TE Brock Bowers returned Sunday with 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown.
Plus, Kansas City's defense ranks 19th in pressure rate, so Cousins should be comfortable in the pocket. If Cousins keeps playing like this, the Raiders can make the playoffs because first-year head coach Klint Kubiak is the real deal.
Also, since 2021, the Chiefs are 4-8-1 ATS as road favorites in division games.
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Early Chiefs vs Raiders total pick: Under 47.5
There is a little cushion on the Under 47.5 since I have the Chiefs beating the Raiders 25-21.
Both defenses have better success rates than the offenses, and these teams have invested heavily at running back. Las Vegas drafted RB Ashton Jeanty sixth overall in 2025, while Kansas City signed RB Kenneth Walker III to a three-year, $43 million deal this offseason.
The Raiders have the eighth-highest rush rate in the league, and the Chiefs are 11th. That should lead to a run-heavy game, a moving clock, and fewer possessions.
With both offenses also featuring elite tight ends but underwhelming WR corps, I'm expecting sustained drives rather than a bunch of quick-strike scores.
Chiefs vs Raiders odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Chiefs vs Raiders spread: Chiefs -4.5
- Chiefs vs Raiders moneyline: Chiefs 68%, Raiders 38%
- Chiefs vs Raiders Over/Under: 47.5
How to watch Chiefs vs Raiders
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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