Rams vs Eagles Picks & Props
LA vs PHI Picks
NFL PicksEV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The projections expect the Rams to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. Matthew Stafford's 59.0% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteable regression in his throwing precision over last season's 65.9% rate.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (65.3% Adjusted Completion%).. The Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.15 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in football.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Philadelphia's collection of CBs has been fantastic since the start of last season, projecting as the 8th-best in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the 5th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. This week, Jalen Hurts is anticipated by the model to earn the 2nd-most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 7.0. . Jalen Hurts isn't afraid to run the ball himself, making up 18.9% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to QBs.. Jalen Hurts has picked up 25.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to QBs (88th percentile).
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Philadelphia's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats inflated) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We figure to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.. DeVonta Smith has run a route on 97.9% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.. DeVonta Smith comes in as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 53.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Rams to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Matthew Stafford has been one of the leading touchdown throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.26 per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.. The rushing TD column reads "0" on the back of Matthew Stafford's trading card since the start of last season.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Philadelphia's DT corps has been tremendous since the start of last season, ranking as the best in football.
LA vs PHI Consensus Picks
LA vs PHI Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
PHI
+3.0 spread
1.67
PROJECTION
-1.3
DIFFERENCE
10.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
43.5 Total
44.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
2.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
M. Stafford
(QB)
u251.5 Passing Yards
229.75 UNDER
PROJECTION
-21.7
DIFFERENCE
25.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o200.5 Passing Yards
202.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
-0.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o23.5 Rushing Yards
32.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.5
DIFFERENCE
25.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
K. Williams
(RB)
o55.5 Rushing Yards
58.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
-19.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Smith
(WR)
o68.5 Receiving Yards
71.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
18.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Smith
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions Made
5.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-13.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
K. Williams
(RB)
u13.5 Rushing Attempts
12.90 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
9.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Attempts
6.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
3.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
19.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-1.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Stafford
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.08 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
24.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Hurts
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.41 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Williams
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-9.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
M. Stafford
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
5.84%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
PHI
+3.0 spread
1.67
PROJECTION
-1.3
DIFFERENCE
10.53%
EV
TOTAL
Over
43.5 Total
44.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
2.06%
EV
PASSING YARDS
M. Stafford
(QB)
u251.5 Passing Yards
229.75 UNDER
PROJECTION
-21.7
DIFFERENCE
25.12%
EV
PASSING YARDS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o200.5 Passing Yards
202.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
-0.17%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o23.5 Rushing Yards
32.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.5
DIFFERENCE
25.26%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
K. Williams
(RB)
o55.5 Rushing Yards
58.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
-19.51%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Smith
(WR)
o68.5 Receiving Yards
71.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
18.83%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Smith
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions Made
5.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-13.19%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
K. Williams
(RB)
u13.5 Rushing Attempts
12.90 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
9.21%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Attempts
6.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
3.23%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
19.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-1.4%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Stafford
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.08 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
24.47%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Hurts
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.41 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.29%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Williams
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-9.98%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
M. Stafford
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
5.84%
EV
Recent Form Trends
Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in Week 4.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.
Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games as an underdog.
Over is 8-1 in Rams last 9 road games.
Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
ROI Trends
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