I'm not buying the Denver comeback against the Los Angeles Rams — I'll be fading them on the road in my Broncos vs. 49ers predictions.
The San Francisco 49ers come Sunday as 56% favorites at home, and with Brock Purdy having the best start to a season in his career, this pick is a no-brainer to me.
Tap into my NFL picks for Week 4.
Broncos vs 49ers predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Broncos vs 49ers spread pick: 49ers -2.5
The San Francisco 49ers have been remarkably efficient on offense, with Brock Purdy leading a unit that generates an NFL-best 7.35 yards per play while also ranking first with 0.32 EPA per play.
While injuries are beginning to pile up, the 49ers received encouraging news regarding Mike Evans on Monday. His presence will provide a significant boost against a stingy Denver Broncos defense.
My biggest concern remains Bo Nix, who won't have the luxury of overcoming another slow start against this San Francisco team. The 49ers also boast a top-five red-zone defense, giving me plenty of confidence in their ability to cover.
Play this up to 55%.
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Early Broncos vs 49ers total pick: Over 46.5
Even against a strong Denver defense, the 49ers have the explosiveness to create scoring opportunities. It helps that they own the best red-zone offense in football - scoring 90% of their trips inside the 20.
Denver shouldn't need a huge offensive performance to get this game over the number, either. Nix and his offense showed flashes on Sunday Night Football in their 16-0 comeback victory, and are in a groove after two straight wins.
Don't be afraid to trade this up to 50%.
Broncos vs 49ers odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Broncos vs 49ers spread: 49ers -2.5 (52%)
- Broncos vs 49ers moneyline: Broncos 43%, 49ers 57%
- Broncos vs 49ers Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Broncos vs 49ers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: San Francisco, Calif.
- Venue: Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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