The AFC North looks wide open this year, and the Cincinnati Bengals will continue to stake their claim on Sunday as 2.5-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
While Jacksonville caught the eye with a Week 3 blowout, Cincinnati's high-powered offense presents bigger challenges, and my early Jaguars vs. Bengals prediction signals home cooking for Joe Burrow & Co. at Paycor Stadium.
It’s time for some early leans, so read on for my NFL picks ahead of a tasty Sunday, Oct 4. showdown.
Jaguars vs Bengals predictions
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Early Jaguars vs Bengals spread pick: Bengals -2.5
Play up to 54%.
A healthy Joe Burrow and the home-field edge at Paycor Stadium has been a winning formula for the Cincinnati Bengals — to the tune of a 24-17 straight-up career record — and I like the hosts to win by at least a field goal in this battle of AFC playoff contenders.
Cincinnati has covered the spread in its past four matchups against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I'm not overreacting to the Week 3 results.
Sure, the Jaguars embarrassed the New England Patriots at the weekend, but they got a big assist from an out-of-sorts Drake Maye.
Don't expect the Bengals to be in a similarly charitable mood. With Jacksonville's shaky interior defensive line and inexperienced secondary, look for Burrow to improve on his 3-0 ATS record against the Jaguars, setting up big days for Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
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Early Jaguars vs Bengals total pick: Over 51.5
Play up to 55%.
Buckle up for fireworks at Paycor Stadium this weekend. Both teams have looked solid against the run, so the stage is set for Burrow and Trevor Lawrence to air it out on Sunday — and that game plan plays to both teams’ strengths.
The numbers back that up. The Bengals are averaging 26.7 points per game, while the Jaguars sit at 27.3 ppg, and the Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these squads.
Cincinnati has taken strides defensively after allowing 28.9 ppg in 2025, but Week 3 in Pittsburgh showed alarming signs when Aaron Rodgers threw three TD passes.
Similarly, I don't see Jacksonville putting Burrow under sustained pressure, and the Bengals QB has only thrown one interception this season.
Jaguars vs Bengals odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Jaguars vs Bengals spread: Bengals -2.5
- Jaguars vs Bengals moneyline: Jaguars 46%, Bengals 54%
- Jaguars vs Bengals Over/Under: 51.5
How to watch Jaguars vs Bengals
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Cincinnati, OH
- Venue: Paycor Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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