My USC vs. Indiana prediction takes a closer look at whether the Hoosiers' 9.5-point spread and the total of 50.5 are justified given their recent offensive struggles.
Indiana puts its 8-1 record and playoff aspirations on the line as it hosts a 7-2 USC squad in one of Week 11's biggest games.
Read on for my USC vs. Indiana college football picks and preview for this contest, which will be broadcast on CBS at 3:30 p.m. ET today, Saturday, Nov. 14.
See the latest USC-Indiana lines on Kalshi, where Indiana carries a 76% win probability, plus our Week 11 Top Picks and Brad Powers' Week 11 predictions.
Who will win USC vs Indiana today: USC +9.5
Getting the key number of +10 is ideal, but USC is the recommended side at +8.5 or better.
Indiana needs to prove its offensive worth and its quarterback play before laying multiple scores against a game opponent. Josh Hoover (injury) and Grant Wilson (flu) both didn't practice at all during the bye week, creating uncertainty for a struggling offense ranked 129th in success rate in its last four games.
Hoover isn't listed on the availability report, but that means diddly, as Curt Cignetti all but confirmed when he was noncommittal about a starter during Monday's press conference. The TCU transfer is just 16-for-37 (43.2%) for 200 yards (5.4 yards per attempt) with one touchdown and two interceptions in his last two games, so the onus is on him to prove his health.
USC ranks 27th in EPA per play on standard downs since Week 6 despite having faced several quality defenses, so the underdog has the more bankable offense.
See our college football picks against the spread for more Week 11 sides.
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TOP PICK
USC vs Indiana Over/Under pick today: Under 50.5
Indiana has mustered just 14.3 ppg in its last four games. Neither a banged-up Hoover nor a seventh-year journeyman backup with 6.9 yards per attempt in his career (Wilson) is well positioned to succeed.
The rushing attack hasn't been able to carry the load, ranking just 134th in EPA per rush and 134th in rushing explosiveness since Week 6. USC's much-maligned defense has bowed up lately, checking in at 54th in EPA per play and 19th in explosiveness in that span, overperforming relative to expectations.
Despite the negatives about Indiana's offense, the same isn't true of an elite defense that allows 259.2 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.
See our college football Over/Under picks for more Week 11 totals.
COVERS INTEL: Bryant Haines is an ace at dialing up pressure, and his Hoosiers (fifth nationally with 8.4 tackles for loss per game) will create all sorts of issues for USC's offensive line (120th in line yards, 135th in stuff rate in its last four games).USC vs Indiana prop: First half Under 24.5
Indiana sucks the life out of opponents, cashing the first-half Under in 12 of its last 15 games. The disruptive defensive front will live in the Trojans' backfield given their blocking issues against tougher competition, making it difficult for Lincoln Riley to cook up early points.
Tobi Osunsanmi (15.5 TFL) and Stephen Daley (7.5 TFL) are a handful when USC passes, and the run game hasn't been effective enough (108th in success rate in their last four) to compensate.
USC vs Indiana combo
Cignetti would prefer if this game didn't turn into a shootout given that USC has displayed greater offensive firepower in Big Ten play.
Look for the Hoosiers to play well enough to win the first half following the much-needed bye week. They'll instill their slow tempo offensively while leaning on a national championship-caliber defense to grind this game down from the opening kickoff.
See our college football Top 25 predictions for more on today's marquee matchups.
USC vs Indiana combo
- First half Under 24.5
- Under 50.5
- Indiana first half moneyline
USC vs Indiana market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your USC vs. Indiana prediction.
- Top picks: 15-10, +4.54 units
- Combos: 8-17, +19.93 units
More Week 11 college football picks and predictions
- Week 11 college football Top Picks for Saturday, Nov. 14: Top pick from every game preview
- College football predictions Week 11: Brad Powers' CFB picks
- Week 11 college football AI predictions
- College football Top 25 predictions Week 11: watchability ratings and picks
- College football Week 11 picks against the spread
- College football Week 11 moneyline picks
- College football Over/Under picks: Week 11
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 11
- College football player props: Week 11
- Our favorite college football Group of 6 predictions: Week 11
USC vs Indiana odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: USC +9.5 | Indiana -9.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (52%) | Under 50.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: USC 24% | Indiana 76%
Follow the USC vs. Indiana market prices on Kalshi up to kickoff. See our college football moneyline picks for more win probabilities.
See the latest college football odds for more on today's USC vs. Indiana matchup.
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USC vs Indiana weather
It'll be a little chilly, but that shouldn't impact this contest.
See our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
USC vs Indiana trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in both teams' last four games. Find more college football betting trends for USC vs. Indiana, and see our college football AI predictions.
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How to watch USC vs Indiana
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind. |
| Date | Today, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
USC vs Indiana latest injuries
See our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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