Texas scored by far the biggest win of Week 2 when the Longhorns overcame a 20-point deficit to take down No. 1 Ohio State. That has the National Championship odds at prediction market apps in motion, with Texas now the top choice at 14% ahead of Notre Dame (beat Rice 52-0) and Miami (beat 77-7 over Florida A&M).
The second biggest mover is Oregon, which is heading in the other direction after losing to Oklahoma State as massive favorites in the college football odds. The Ducks are now well outside the conversation, though they certainly have the talent to get back in the race.
- Key takeaways
- Texas: The 20-point comeback win moved Texas from 11% following Week 1 up to 14%, with the Longhorns also expected to be ranked No. 1 in the upcoming AP Poll
Ohio State: Despite the ugly result, Ohio State only dropped from 12-13% to 11%, but this loss puts an early dent in its playoff resume, with games against Oregon, Indiana, and USC still on the schedule - Oregon: Oregon fell all the way to 3% from 10% after its unforgivable loss to Oklahoma State as 22.5-point favorites
CFP National Championship odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Texas |
14% |
 Notre Dame |
13% |
 Miami |
12% |
 Ohio State |
12% |
 Indiana |
10% |
 Georgia |
10% |
 LSU |
9% |
 Alabama |
3% |
 Michigan |
3% |
 Ole Miss |
3% |
 Oregon |
3% |
 Texas A&M |
3% |
 USC |
3% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Texas (14%)
It was a tale of two halves for Texas against visiting No. 1 Ohio State, down 20-3 at half and as much as 23-3 after three quarters before Arch Manning & Co. stormed back to win 24-23 in the most dramatic of fashions.
It's perhaps the most encouraging win of Steve Sarkisian's tenure at Texas and just as encouraging for those backing Arch in the Heisman Trophy odds.
Still, there's reason not to be jumping all over the Longhorns at this price. Ranked road matchups with Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, and Texas A&M line the schedule and that's not including home games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma in the Red River.
CFP National Championship predictions
| Prediction | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon |
10% | May 27 | 0.5 |
Dan Lanning's Oregon Ducks are going to break through. It's only a matter of time.
Dante Moore passed up the NFL Draft to return for his senior season, and he'll have Evan Stewart (missed all of last season with a knee injury) and 2025 No. 1 wide receiver recruit Dakorien Moore to throw to.
Trips to USC and Ohio State are the only scary matchups on the schedule, and they'll have chances to boost their resume with home games against Michigan and Washington in the final three weeks of the season.
I project this as an 11-1 season, with that lone loss coming at Ohio State on November 7, but that record and a potential Big Ten title game appearance could be enough for a first-round bye in the CFP.
Pick made by Chris Gregory.
| Prediction | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon |
11% | Aug. 26 | 1 |
After predicting every single FBS game ahead of the college football season, Oregon was one of just a handful of Power 4 teams I projected to have a chance at 11+ regular-season wins. That's because they're 11th nationally in returning production (66%) with one of the top QBs in the country.
Dante Moore, who's the best Heisman value on the board among high-profile QBs, was one of only three P4 QBs to put up an adjusted completion percentage of at least 80% (Min. 300 dropbacks), and the only one of those three to have a big-time throw rate better than 6%. He also has one of the deepest pass-catching rooms in the country (Jamari Johnson, Evan Stewart, Dakorien Moore, Jeremiah McClellan, Iverson Hooks).
Dan Lanning's defense is loaded again, too. The Ducks return their entire starting defensive line, led by preseason All-American A'Mauri Washington.
Oregon should be priced the same as Notre Dame and Ohio State, and so I'll happily buy them at a slight discount.
Pick made by Rob Paul.
Team to watch
Texas Tech (4%)
Among the teams with a probability below 8%, Texas Tech is by far the most interesting. The Red Raiders are the most talented team in the Big 12, and billionaire booster Cody Campbell once again helped fund a top transfer portal class.
While the Brendan Sorsby saga hung over Texas Tech for months, they don't need him to make a run to the College Football Playoff. Will Hammond showed plenty of promise off the bench last year, and he's healthy after last year's torn ACL. Joey Maguire also added former Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos as insurance behind Hammond.
But the reason Tech is the team to watch is because of its defense. It reloaded in the front seven with major portal additions like Mateen Ibirogba, Adam Trick, and Austin Romaine. It also returns stars Ben Roberts and Brice Pollock.
With a schedule that should lead to an 11+ win regular season, I think Tech's price will rise rapidly.
Recent College Football National Championship winners
| Year | Winner | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana |
+10000 |
| 2024 | Ohio State |
+325 |
| 2023 | Michigan |
+800 |
| 2022 | Georgia |
+350 |
| 2021 | Georgia |
+600 |
| 2020 | Alabama |
+300 |
| 2019 | LSU |
+2500 |
| 2018 |  Clemson |
+400 |
| 2017 | Alabama |
+250 |
| 2016 | Clemson |
+700 |
| 2015 | Alabama |
+700 |
College Football National Championship odds via Sports Odds History.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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College Football National Championship Odds FAQs
Notre Dame and Ohio State are co-favorites, according to the College Football National Championship odds. Both the Fighting Irish and Buckeyes have a 13% probability of winning the CFP National Championship.
The College Football National Championship is on Monday, Jan. 25, 2027, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
The College Football National Championship is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. It will be played on Monday, Jan. 25, 2027.
Indiana won its first College Football National Championship last year. The Hoosiers defeated Miami, 27-21, to complete a 16-0 season.
The College Football National Championship will be on ABC/ESPN on Monday, Jan. 27, 2027. The other College Football Playoff games leading up to it will be on ABC/ESPN and TNT.
