Despite the College Football Playoff selection committees' continued refusal to rank Group of Six programs, Saturday's G6 slate is one of the most important to the CFP race.
Beyond Boise State hosting Oregon State in the College GameDay matchup, which I break down in my Top 25 predictions, my Group of Six picks focus on three of Saturday's biggest G6 games.
From Liberty chasing its ninth straight win to New Mexico's biggest game in weeks and a potential prime-time shootout between North Texas and UTSA, my G6 college football picks highlight Saturday's best matchups.
Week 11 Group of 6 college football picks
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 James Madisonvs  UConn |
-4.5 50% |
 Florida Atlanticvs  Tulsa |
⬆️ o73.5 52% |
 Middle Tennesseevs  Liberty |
-21.5 48% |
 UNLVvs  New Mexico |
-14.5 50% |
 North Texasvs  UTSA |
ML 54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week
James Madison vs UConn: James Madison -4.5
Should anyone really trust Billy Napier? Probably not, but aside from James Madison's bizarre two-week stretch of blowing leads and losing in OT to close out October, the Dukes have covered in seven of their eight other games.
Against a UConn team that's been uncompetitive against quality programs, I like JMU to cover up to -8.5 on the road.
The Huskies have struggled as an underdog in Jason Candle's first season, failing to cover in four of the six games they weren't favored in (and the Toledo program he left looks even better without him). UConn's defense is its biggest problem, ranking 106th in success rate (46.9%) and 109th in available yards percentage (52.9%).
When UConn wins, it's because of its offense, but JMU has one of the G6's top defenses. The Dukes have allowed more than 24 points just once this season and are top 30 in defensive success rate (40.4%).
James Madison's QB change to JC Evans opens up its run game, too, which will come in handy against a Huskies D ranked 97th in rush success rate (46.2%).
Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa: ⬆️ Over 73.5
There's no team I've enjoyed watching more over the last few weeks than Florida Atlantic.
The Owls have become appointment television, not just because they have one of the best offenses in the country, but also because they have one of the worst defenses.
So while this game total might seem high, I would take the Over up to 75.5.
FAU has hit the Over in eight of nine games this season, including six straight. In conference play this season, the Owls are averaging 42.8 points per game behind the play of Caden Veltkamp and Easton Messer.
Veltkamp is top 10 nationally in passing yards (2,746), passing TDs (27), and adjusted completion percentage (79.8%), while Messer leads the country in receptions (81) and ranks fourth in receiving yards (983) with 17 total TDs. No tandem has been better than them lately.
But for as dominant as Zach Kittley's offense has been, his defense has been completely inept. The Owls have allowed 42.4 ppg in conference play and rank 128th in EPA per dropback and 137th in EPA per rush. Tulsa has the offense to take advantage, averaging 40.6 ppg in conference games and ranking 18th nationally in EPA per play on offense.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty: Liberty -21.5
This is a major letdown spot for Middle Tennessee, which just won "100 Miles of Hate" against Western Kentucky for the first time since 2018.
It was a huge program win for Derek Mason, but playing Liberty competitively is a different beast than beating the Hilltoppers in a down year. The Flames' talent advantage is massive, and I like them to cover at -23.5 or better.
Liberty is the highest-ranked G6 team by SP+, and it's not just because Jamey Chadwell's spread-option is cooking defenses. The Flames invested in their defense, and it's paid off. Over its last seven matchups, Liberty has allowed just 11.3 ppg and has covered the spread in every game.
The Blue Raiders won't score enough against a defense ranked sixth nationally in points allowed per opportunity (2.32) to cover; their defense is just too awful. Middle Tennessee sits 130th in defensive success rate (49.2%) and 134th in EPA per rush; that's going to be a problem against a Flames offense that's No. 2 nationally in rush success rate (52.6%).
UNLV vs New Mexico: New Mexico -14.5
After being ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history ahead of Week 10, New Mexico was disrespected by the CFP rankings and left out.
It didn't take Jason Eck much to motivate his team to win a sixth straight game and cover as a double-digit favorite last week. Once again, the Lobos are ranked in the AP Poll, but not the CFP rankings, and once again I will back New Mexico to cover (this time up to -16.5).
UNLV has been a disappointment this season and has no-showed against most of its quality opponents. The Rebels have failed to cover in three straight games, and they'll make it four straight with how poorly QB Jackson Arnold matches up against the Lobos. Arnold can't handle being pressured, holding a 20.8% pressure-to-sack rate this season.
In four games against defenses ranked top 80 by SP+, UNLV is 1-3 ATS. New Mexico's defense is ranked No. 7 by SP+, best in the G6, and leads the country in havoc rate (25.5%), available yards percentage (26.5%), and success rate (31.9%).
And oh yeah, UNLV's defense cannot stop the run (128th in EPA per rush), so the Lobos' run-first attack shouldn't have trouble moving the ball.
North Texas vs UTSA: North Texas moneyline
This was shaping up to be a huge showdown in the American Conference, and then Florida Atlantic dropped an anvil on UTSA last week and handed the Roadrunners their first loss in American Conference play.
UTSA's complete inability to stop the Owls' passing attack is a bad sign going into a game with SP+'s highest-ranked offense in the G6, North Texas (No. 9). However, I expect Jeff Traylor's team to bounce back to some degree in the Alamodome, so I prefer taking the Mean Green moneyline over them covering the -1.5 spread.
Despite losing its head coach and most of its roster to Oklahoma State, North Texas is nearly as good offensively as it was last season. Tayven Jackson is top 10 nationally in passing yards (2,880) and passing TDs (23), while Jahiem White is top five in rushing yards (1,186) and rushing TDs (16).
Those two have UNT ranked top 20 nationally in available yards percentage (61.7%) and offensive success rate (49.2%). This UTSA defense ranks 94th in success rate (45.7%) and is allowing the 14th-most yards per game in the G6 (410.6).
Both teams will score a ton of points in this matchup, but I'll take the more consistent offense to win the day.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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