Props on props on props!
Only a few more weeks left in the regular season before bowl season is upon us but before we get there, we have some of our best our college football picks on deck for Week 11.
Let's dive into my Texas vs. LSU prop picks where I am heavy on the quarterbacks in this Saturday, Nov. 14 matchup.
Best Texas vs LSU props
Prop pick #1: Arch Manning Over 217.5 passing yards
Going against the Covers player prop projections here, which have Texas quarterback Arch Manning finishing under this number. Don't worry, they're projecting him to fall short by just one yard.
LSU has a rock-solid pass defense, but how many quality quarterbacks have the Tigers actually faced this season?
Trinidad Chambliss threw for more than 360 yards in Week 3, but Manning isn't even on the same planet as the Ole Miss star. The next two best quarterbacks LSU has faced are Keelon Russell and Byrum Brown, both of whom struggled. Manning is better than both.
With the Longhorns likely playing from behind, as the spread suggests, Manning should have plenty of opportunities to throw. Since losing to Florida, Texas has been humming, and Manning has followed suit. I expect him to move the ball through the air in this matchup.
If there's a Manning interception prop available, I'd look at backing that, depending on the price. I'd also consider pairing it with Manning to throw for 200+ yards.
Prop pick #2: Sam Leavitt Over 254.5 passing yards
Yes, even with the possibility of LSU jumping out to an early lead, Sam Leavitt is a go. This will be one of the toughest pass defenses the junior quarterback has faced, but he should have plenty of opportunities to move the ball through the air.
Not only do the Tigers rank eighth in pass attempts allowed per game, but they also like to play fast and keep their foot on the gas. LSU ranks 13th in situation-adjusted pace and 11th in seconds per play when leading in the second half.
Even though the Covers projections lean toward the under on this prop, I expect a fast-paced game with more scoring than either defense is accustomed to allowing.
Fully expect LSU to bounce back following their embarrassing loss to the Crimson Tide.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
Prop pick #3: Arch Manning 2+ Passing Touchdowns
For the price, this is a great bet to sweat out during this ballgame. Arch Manning has been finding the end zone at a high rate through the air, throwing for six touchdowns over his last two games.
Texas ranks ninth nationally in red zone scoring percentage at 94.12%. The Tigers have allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns, Trinidad Chambliss and Keelon Russell.
That said, they haven't faced much top-tier quarterback talent, giving Manning a great opportunity to build on the momentum Texas has generated since its loss to Florida.
If you're feeling frisky and want to chase some value, Manning has actually thrown for 3+ touchdowns in more games than he's thrown for exactly two.
- Top picks: 80-60, +18.89 units
- Prop picks: 11-9, +2.40 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
