College Football Underdog Picks & Upset Predictions: Week 11

Colby Marchio - Contributor at Covers.com
Colby Marchio • Betting Analyst 7+ years betting experience
Updated: Nov 12, 2026 , 12:30 PM ET • 4 min read

Arizona, Florida, and Baylor are the Week 11 underdogs with real bite, and I’m backing all three to pull off the upset.

College Football Underdog Picks Week 11
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Noah Fifita, Jadan Baugh, and Gavin Freeman.

Week 10 wasn't exactly the greatest week of all time, but we've got a new slate to look forward to.

I've put together three college football underdog picks for this weekend. Let's go find some dogs!

This week features fading both teams from the Holy War, and more. Before you dive in, check out our college football picks page for Week 11.

CFB Week 11 underdog picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Pick Kalshi
Probability
Arizona Arizona 43%
Florida Florida 40%
Baylor Baylor 29%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Arizona Arizona (vs. Utah)

Three words. Fade. The. Storm.

People forget that it's weird to storm a field when you're not only ranked higher than your opponent, but also the favorite. Last week, No. 3 Utah took down No. 9 BYU in the Holy War. Following the win, the Utes faithful stormed the field in celebration.

Why? Game's gone.

If that was Utah's Super Bowl, good luck this week against Arizona. You're now one of the most overrated No. 2 teams in recent memory.

Utah's pass defense has been mediocre, allowing nearly 250 yards per game, with opponents completing over 57% of their passes.

That defense will now be tested by an offense that ranks fourth in passing yards per game, 13th in yards per pass, and third in completion percentage.

Wildcats or nothing.

Florida Florida (vs. Kentucky)

Some may view last week's ugly loss to Tennessee as a letdown spot, but I think it was more regression to the mean after how fortunate the Wildcats have been this season.

Prior to last week, Kentucky had won six straight games, including two overtime victories and four outright wins as an underdog.

Florida catching four points feels like a lot. The Gators can do more than just keep this one interesting.

Baylor Baylor (vs. BYU)

BYU is coming off a massive emotional loss to Utah in the Holy War, a game the Cougars could have won. However, turnovers ultimately killed them.

Now back home, where many will view this as a clear get-right spot, I see a team that could still be recovering from its last big game of the season.

The Cougars draw Baylor, a team that has been on an absolute tear since firing Dave Aranda on October 25. The Bears have scored 41+ points in back-to-back games, winning both by 11+ points.

Baylor is also the second-fastest team in the country in seconds per play. If the Bears can jump out to an early lead and keep their foot on the gas, they could take down the Cougars.

Week 11 underdog combo

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Colby Marchio
Betting Analyst

Colby Marchio is a two-time DePaul alum and former Division 1 (club) baseball player who has been sports betting since 2019. Since graduating in 2021, he has worked throughout the media circuit, hosting and appearing on various television and radio shows while making countless guest appearances discussing Major League Baseball, college basketball, college football, and the National Football League.

A self-proclaimed numbers nerd, Colby may enjoy digging through the data even more than winning itself. That passion is why his two favorite sports to cover are college basketball and Major League Baseball. 

As for his favorite sportsbook, it is whichever one has the best price, or whichever one is not taxing him as an Illinois resident. 

You can find all of his plays and more @ColbyMBets on Twitter/X.

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