Following "separation Saturday" is no easy feat, but Week 11 should be known as "sneaky Saturday," with the number of quality games set to impact the College Football Playoff rankings.
The second set of CFP rankings saw serious movement, and they should again after this slate, with five ranked matchups headlining my Week 11 college football Top 25 predictions.
Week 11's Top 25 college football picks include a loser-goes-home game between Texas and LSU, Indiana's chance to beat a ranked team, Utah's third ranked matchup in four games, and Wake Forest's biggest test in weeks.
College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 11
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Watch Rating |
Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Texasvs.  LSU |
5/5 | +4.5 🟡 |
51% |
 USCvs.  Indiana |
5/5 | -7.5 🟡 |
49% |
 Utahvs.  Arizona |
5/5 | -2.5 ⚪ |
54% |
 Texas Techvs.  Oklahoma State |
4/5 | +3.5 🟡 |
53% |
 Wake Forestvs.  SMU |
4/5 | +1.5 🟡 |
50% |
 Missourivs.  Georgia |
4/5 | -14.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Dukevs.  Miami |
4/5 | -13.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Baylorvs.  BYU |
3/5 | +7.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Northwesternvs.  Ohio State |
3/5 | -11.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Floridavs.  Kentucky |
3/5 | -3.5 ⚪ |
49% |
 Illinoisvs.  UCLA |
3/5 | -9.5 🟢 |
53% |
 Ole Missvs.  Oklahoma |
3/5 | -1.5 🟡 |
50% |
 Michiganvs.  Oregon |
3/5 | -10.5 ⚪ |
51% |
 Oregon Statevs.  Boise State |
3/5 | -11.5 🟡 |
54% |
 Tennesseevs.  Texas A&M |
2/5 | -2.5 🟢 |
53% |
 Alabamavs.  Vanderbilt |
2/5 | -16.5 🟡 |
49% |
 South Carolinavs.  Arkansas |
1/5 | -7.5 🟢 |
49% |
 Purduevs.  Iowa |
1/5 | -17.5 🟡 |
49% |
 Houstonvs.  Colorado |
1/5 | -9.5 🟢 |
51% |
 Boston Collegevs.  Notre Dame |
1/5 | -27.5 🟡 |
54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Tier 1 watchability for Week 11 (must-watch)
Texas (6) vs LSU (21)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Texas +4.5 🟡
- ML pick: LSU (61%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 46.5 🟡
The sky was falling in Austin in mid-October, but Texas is now riding a three-game winning streak and has outscored its last three opponents 99-50, covering the spread all three times. With Arch Manning coming off arguably his best game of the season and Colin Simmons expected to be fully back this week, I like Texas to cover +2.5 or better.
Since the Florida loss, Manning has accounted for nine TDs and outdueled two of the country's best QBs, Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss and Missouri's Austin Simmons. LSU, meanwhile, is 0-3 against the spread vs. currently ranked opponents, losing all three games outright as a favorite.
In those three games, Sam Leavitt has accounted for as many TD passes as interceptions (3) with a 21.1% pressure-to-sack rate. His inability to play clean football will rear its ugly head against a Texas defense ranked No. 1 in net adjusted EPA per play, No. 5 in success rate (36.6%), and No. 11 in havoc rate (20%).
Expect Simmons to be the X-factor in Death Valley, after racking up 26 pressures, 16 TFLs, and 10.5 sacks in the first six games of the season.
Our college football against-the-spread picks are also on the Longhorns.
USC (18) vs Indiana (9)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
- ATS pick: Indiana -7.5 🟡
- ML pick: Indiana (71%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 50.5 ⚪
Indiana fell five spots in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, despite being on a bye week. I'm not saying that's the wrong choice by the selection committee (it was their rare right decision), but I sure do feel bad for USC having to play a pissed-off Curt Cignetti. With the extra motivation, I like IU to cover up to -9.5.
The Trojans finally got a marquee victory under Lincoln Riley. However, that win over Ohio State has already aged poorly, and the last time USC played in the Midwest against an elite defense, it lost 24-7 to Wisconsin. This Hoosiers team is a lot better than the Badgers, with a defense that's top 10 in havoc rate (20%) and success rate (37.4%).
The questions for Indiana come on offense, but whether it's Josh Hoover or Grant Wilson at QB, USC's defense won't have an answer. The Trojans' defense has been awful under Gary Patterson, ranking outside the Top 100 in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback.
Good luck stopping Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh, regardless of who's throwing to them.
Utah (2) vs Arizona (23)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 7:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Utah -2.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Utah (56%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 54.5 ⚪
After putting Utah's offense on his back to win the Holy War last week, Devon Dampier is among the best Heisman Trophy predictions heading into Week 11. The Utes have been a machine, especially the last three weeks, and against an Arizona team that was lucky to beat TCU under the Friday night lights in Week 10, I'd play Utah at -2.5 or better.
This is a bad matchup for an Arizona defense that's 89th in EPA per rush this season, with Dampier, Wayshawn Parker, and one of the best offensive lines in the country leading an offense ranked top 20 in rushing yards per game (215.4), points per opportunity (4.53), and offensive success rate (50.4%).
The key to Morgan Scalley's team remaining undefeated will be stopping Noah Fifita and Arizona's passing attack. However, this is the best pass defense Fifita has seen this season, with the Utes ranking 14th nationally in pass success rate (37.8%) and fourth in interceptions (13).
Utah is 8-1 against the spread this season, and in its last three games, against two ranked programs and a Cincinnati team that upset Texas Tech, the Utes have covered by an average of 7.2 points.
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Tier 2 watchability for Week 11 (worth watching)
Texas Tech (12) vs Oklahoma State (25)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Texas Tech +3.5 🟡
- ML pick: Texas Tech (41%) ⚪
- Over/Under pick: Under 72.5 🟡
Normally known for its defense, Texas Tech won a wild Big 12 After Dark shootout last week against West Virginia and now must go toe-to-toe with Drew Mestemaker, the favorite to go first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. But that shootout win actually gives me more confidence that the Red Raiders can win outright in Stillwater.
Thomas Castellanos has completely reinvigorated Texas Tech's offense. In his two starts, he has a 79.8 QBR, seven TD passes, and 219 rushing yards. His mobility is an X-factor behind one of the best O-lines in the country, and he and J'Koby Williams (581 rushing yards in his last five games) will be a problem for an Oklahoma State defense ranked 63rd in rush success rate and allowing 151.3 rushing yards per game.
And while this will be a high-scoring game, Tech's defense is a tough matchup for the Pokes. Texas Tech is the only P4 team with 10+ interceptions (13) and 25+ sacks (29) this season, and Mestemaker has been mistake-prone, leading the country in turnover-worthy plays (17).
Our college football moneyline picks are also backing Texas Tech to beat Oklahoma State.
Wake Forest (13) vs SMU
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | noon ET | ESPN/Disney+
- ATS pick: Wake Forest +1.5 🟡
- ML pick: Wake Forest (50%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 60.5 ⚪
Although SMU isn't ranked, this is effectively a Top-25 matchup between two teams trying to stay alive in the ACC Championship race, and I'm riding with a Demon Deacons team that's 7-2 ATS to win outright on the road.
Wake Forest has the most efficient passing attack in the country, ranking No. 1 in EPA per dropback, No. 3 in available yards percentage (64.4%), and No. 4 in points per opportunity (4.90). That's thanks to Gio Lopez and Carlos Hernandez, the most underrated QB-wide receiver duo in the country.
Lopez and Hernandez will be a problem for an SMU defense that's ranked 55th in success rate (42.8%) and 87th in early-down EPA per play. And if Wake's defense can be opportunistic against Kevin Jennings, who's tied for the 15th-most turnover-worthy plays in the P4 (11), the Mustangs will fall behind.
Both Chris Vasile and I have the Demon Deacons in our College Football Playoff bracket predictions, so this is a must-win.
Missouri (22) vs Georgia (1)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC/Disney+
- ATS pick: Georgia -14.5 🟡
- ML pick: Georgia (86%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 47.5 ⚪
Thanks for coming out, Missouri, but your CFP hopes are dead, and now you have to play the college football national championship odds-favorite between the hedges. Missouri is 1-3 ATS vs. Top 25 teams this season, and 0-2 on the road, so I would happily take Georgia to cover up to -16.5.
The Tigers' only shot at keeping this close is Austin Simmons playing out of his mind, but even though he played to his first-round talent against Texas last week, Missouri still lost by two scores. And this Georgia team is starting to feel like Kirby Smart's championship teams.
The Bulldogs have one of the best players in the country, Chris Cole, leading a defense that's top 25 in success rate (40.1%), havoc rate (19.4%), and points allowed per opportunity (2.68). In three ranked matchups, Georgia is 3-0 ATS and allowing just 10.6 points per game.
That's without even mentioning that Gunner Stockton has the Bulldogs No. 3 in offensive success rate (51.7%). This is the most well-rounded team in college football.
Duke vs Miami (7)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | noon ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Miami -13.5 🟡
- ML pick: Miami (83%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 54.5 🟡
The Manny Diaz revenge game didn't go well for Duke the last time around, a 53-31 win for Miami in 2024. Even without Malachi Toney, I don't expect it to go all that well for the Blue Devils this time, either. Still, I would only take the Hurricanes to cover -13.5 or better.
While Duke has been on a roll with running back Nate Sheppard carrying the offense, Miami's defense is at its best at stopping the run. The Hurricanes' defense is ranked No. 2 nationally in rush success rate (32.8%) and EPA per rush, allowing opponents to average just 2.5 yards per carry. And I don't trust Walker Eget to win a duel with Darian Mensah.
Mensah is in the Top 3 in the country in QBR (89.0), TD passes (28), and adjusted completion percentage (83.6%). Eget has yet to face a defense ranked higher than 47th by SP+, and Miami is ranked 25th. The Canes are also 3-1 ATS at home this season.
Tier 3 watchability for Week 11 (interesting)
Baylor vs BYU (10)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Baylor +7.5 🟡
- ML pick: BYU (71%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 ⚪
Baylor is surging and is starting to look like one of the best non-Top 25 teams in the country. Since firing Dave Aranda, the Bears are 2-0 ATS and have outscored opponents 83-39. Though I don't expect a third straight win under interim Joe Klanderman, I do expect Baylor to cover +6.5 or better against this stumbling BYU team.
In the Cougars' three games since upsetting Notre Dame, they're 0-3 ATS, and this isn't a get-right type of matchup for BYU. Kalani Sitake's team doesn't match up well with Baylor. The Bears defense is one of the most disruptive in the country, ranking seventh nationally in havoc rate (20.8%) and second in sacks (37).
That spells trouble for the other Bear, Bachmeier, who's coming off a four-interception game. Baylor has the QB advantage, too, with DJ Lagway finally playing like a five-star stud. The Florida transfer has 548 passing yards, 142 rushing yards, and seven TDs since Klanderman took over.
Northwestern vs Ohio State (20)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | noon ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Ohio State -11.5 🟡
- ML pick: Ohio State (80%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 45.5 🟡
With Aidan Chiles listed as out on the Big Ten injury report for the second straight week, this is the perfect get-right game for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 0-2 with Luke Fahey at QB, but for the second straight loss, they finished with a higher net success rate than their opponent. With no Chiles, Ryan Day can turn the heat down on his coach's seat and cover up to -13.5.
Without Chiles, Northwestern was uncompetitive last week against Iowa, and its offense managed just 286 yards and 10 points, with 114 of those yards and a TD coming in garbage time. This Buckeyes defense is ranked sixth nationally in success rate (37%), and Matt Patricia will be well prepared to stop Chip Kelly, who was Day's offensive coordinator two years ago.
And though Fahey has been shaky, he still has the best player in the sport to throw to in Heisman Trophy odds-favorite Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes should be able to lean more on their ground game, too, with the Wildcats' defense just 105th in rush success rate (46.8%).
Florida vs Kentucky (11)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 6:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Kentucky -3.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Kentucky (61%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 52.5 ⚪
Florida is one of the toughest teams in the country to gauge, but it's starting to look like the spark the Gators had earlier in the season is gone. Jon Sumrall's team just lost by 16 at home to Oklahoma as a 3.5-point favorite, the fourth time the Gators failed to cover in their last five games. So while I think this Kentucky team is overrated, I'd take the Wildcats to cover -4.5 or better.
Earlier in the season, Florida made up for its putrid defense with its offense, but the Gators are averaging just 15.6 points per game since the start of October. Their two QBs have combined for six TD passes and nine turnover-worthy plays during this stretch and could deliver more poor play against a Kentucky defense tied for the fifth in the SEC in interceptions (12).
But the real difference will be made on the other side of this matchup when Kentucky's offensive line bullies a Florida defense ranked 122nd in the country in success rate (48.2%). The Cats are ranked 16th in offensive success rate (49.2%).
Illinois vs UCLA (4)
- Game info: Friday, Nov. 13 | 9 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: UCLA -9.5 🟢
- ML pick: UCLA (77%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 🟡
This is a massive letdown spot for an Illinois team that upset Nebraska last Friday night. Playing on the West Coast is a killer for Big Ten teams, and UCLA is one of the toughest programs in the country to play close. The Bruins are 9-0 ATS and have covered as a double-digit favorite four times.
In Bob Chesney we trust, so UCLA is the play up to -12.5.
This Bruins defense is serious and hasn't allowed more than 20 points since Week 3, holding its last three opponents at home to a combined 17 points. With likely All-American Sammy Omosigho leading the charge, UCLA is No. 1 in the country in net EPA per play on defense and No. 2 in defensive success rate (33.7%).
The bigger question has been UCLA's offense with backup QB Ty Dieffenbach, but he and Wayne Knight should move the ball just fine against a Fighting Illini defense ranked 131st in success rate (49.5%).
Our college football AI predictions also like UCLA to stay undefeated against the spread.
Ole Miss (19) vs Oklahoma
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 4:15 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Ole Miss -1.5 🟡
- ML pick: Ole Miss (50%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 🟡
Neither team is in good shape, with more than two dozen players on the SEC injury report. But Ole Miss is the better team, and Oklahoma used its dead cat bounce last week to beat Florida after firing offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. The Rebels will be a lot tougher than the Gators, and I'd take Ole Miss to cover -2.5 or better.
Sooners interim offensive coordinator Jason Witten debuted against one of the worst defenses in the P4, so while the Rebels aren't a defensive juggernaut, this is a step up for an offense that's 109th in success rate (41%). Will Echoles will be a problem for Oklahoma to block on the interior and should force John Mateer into mistakes (13 turnover-worthy plays this season).
On the other side, Trinidad Chambliss is a magician with his ability to extend plays (11.8% pressure-to-sack rate). He's worn a cape all season for Ole Miss and can do it again against Oklahoma.
Michigan vs Oregon (16)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FS1
- ATS pick: Michigan -10.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Oregon (78%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 39.5 🟡
Oregon was left for dead after losing Dante Moore, but Dan Lanning has rallied his team back into the CFP race. Since hitting rock bottom in the loss to Illinois, the Ducks have beaten two ranked teams and now face a Michigan program with a coach who appears completely checked out. (Kyle Whittingham seems to have forgotten that the Wolverines have their most important game of the season in a few weeks.)
With Dylan Raiola putting up an 83.3+ QBR in back-to-back games and throwing five TDs with zero interceptions, Oregon's offense can do enough to cover up to -11.5. This Michigan defense is one of the best, but the offense is so bad that Whittingham fired Jason Beck after losing the Paul Bunyan Trophy to Michigan State.
The Wolverines rank 15th in the Big Ten in offensive success rate (41.4%) and are 1-5 ATS in conference play. They might not score in Autzen Stadium against an Oregon defense that's third nationally in net adjusted EPA per play.
Oregon State vs Boise State (24)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 6 p.m. ET | USA Network
- ATS pick: Boise State -11.5 🟡
- ML pick: Boise State (82%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 65.5 ⚪
This was an odd choice for the College GameDay game given Oregon State's inability to be competitive the last two weeks. The Beavers were the hottest team in the country in September, but are 0-3 ATS since Week 7, losing their last two games by an average of 18.5 points... they were favored in both.
Boise State doesn't mess around, especially on the "smurf turf," and I would take the Broncos to cover up to -12.5. Spencer Danielson's defense is ranked 26th nationally in pass success rate (39.3%), and if it stops Jesse Legree and Oregon State's passing attack, the Beavers will be doomed.
The Broncos have the most efficient offense in the G6, ranking top five in both EPA per pass and EPA per rush, and running back Dylan Riley leads the country in rushing (1,241). Oregon State's defense ranks 97th in EPA per rush, so it almost doesn't matter if Maddux Madsen is healthy enough to go at QB for Boise (backup Max Cutforth has a 94.4 QBR in relief).
Oregon State QB Braden Atkinson is also expected to be out.
Tier 4 watchability for Week 11 (blowout brewing)
Tennessee (8) vs Texas A&M
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 3 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Tennessee -2.5 🟢
- ML pick: Tennessee (56%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 43.5 🟡
Tennessee should be favored by more than 2.5 with the way Texas A&M has looked in SEC play, and I like the Vols to cover up to -6.5. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS vs. SEC teams with winning records, and their biggest problem is their offense, making this a horrendous matchup for Mike Elko's team.
Jim Knowles' defense is doing despicable things to opposing QBs this season and ranks No. 1 in the country in sacks (39), No. 3 in havoc rate (22.7%), and No. 9 in EPA per dropback. Marcel Reed will look unplayable against Xavier Gilliam and the gang. With Reed at QB, Texas A&M is 125th nationally in EPA per dropback.
Alabama (3) vs Vanderbilt
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 12:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Alabama -16.5 🟡
- ML pick: Alabama (87%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟡
Maybe the CFP selection committee was right about Alabama because the Crimson Tide looked like a championship contender against LSU. Poor Vanderbilt doesn't stand a chance against a healthy Alabama team, especially with the way Keelon Russell is playing, and I'd back Kalen DeBoer's team to cover up to -19.5.
Russell is third in the country in QBR (86.4), and Alabama ranks ninth nationally in points per opportunity (4.72), and Vandy ranks fourth-to-last in the SEC in points allowed per opportunity (4.12). Commodores freshman QB Jared Curtis can't make up for a bend-and-break defense; he has the eighth-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the P4 (4.2%).
Tier 5 watchability for Week 11 (it's still football)
South Carolina (17) vs Arkansas
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 7:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: South Carolina -7.5 🟢
- ML pick: South Carolina (74%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 ⚪
South Carolina was unstoppable during Cocktober and has carried that momentum into Cockvember, with LaNorris Sellers being one of the country's best QBs for the last month. The Gamecocks have covered the spread in four straight games, and I like them to cover up to -12.5 against an Arkansas team that ranks outside the Top 100 in both offensive success rate (41.4%) and defensive success rate (46.9%).
Sellers is listed as questionable, so his status will be key to a Gamecocks cover.
Purdue vs Iowa (15)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: Iowa -17.5 🟡
- ML pick: Iowa (87%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 47.5 ⚪
All Iowa has to do is win out, and Kirk Ferentz's program will likely earn its first-ever College Football Playoff bid. With that extra motivation, the Hawkeyes can cover up to -18.5 at home against Purdue. Iowa's newfound offensive consistency with Hank Brown at QB behind one of the country's best O-lines has helped the Hawkeyes cover in three of their last four. They shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a Boilermakers defense ranked 123rd in success rate (48.3%).
Houston (14) vs Colorado
- Game info: Friday, Nov. 13 | ESPN | 10:15 p.m. ET
- ATS pick: Houston -9.5 🟢
- ML pick: Houston (78%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 🟡
Things have been so bad for Deion Sanders and Colorado this season that nobody seems to even care about this team anymore. The Buffaloes have covered just once in their last eight games, and their offense has no shot at keeping up with Houston... Conner Weigman & Co. can cover up to -13.5. The Cougars are No. 1 nationally in offensive success rate (53.1%) and No. 2 in available yards percentage (64.6%)
Boston College vs Notre Dame (5)
- Game info: Saturday, Nov. 14 | 3:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: Notre Dame -27.5 🟡
- ML pick: Notre Dame (97%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 53.5 ⚪
The Frank Leahy Memorial Bowl has a massive spread, but Notre Dame can cover up to -30.5 at home after beating the No. 1 team in the country. The Fighting Irish are 4-3 ATS when favored by 21.5+ points this season, so it's not as if Marcus Freeman's team has any issues steamrolling over its weak schedule, and Boston College is ranked outside the Top 75 on offense and defense by SP+.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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