We've reached Week 11, and there's no shortage of tricky matchups on this weekend's board.
My college football moneyline picks target 10 teams I believe can get the job done, including a few underdogs worth taking seriously. Here's how I'm attacking the slate, with my best college football picks throughout the week.
Week 11 college football moneyline picks
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Memphis vs  South Florida |
63% |
 Florida State vs  Pitt |
60% |
 Wake Forest vs  SMU |
52% |
 USC vs  Indiana |
30% |
 Kansas vs  West Virginia |
57% |
 Utah vs  Arizona |
56% |
 Texas vs  LSU |
38% |
 North Texas vs  UTSA |
55% |
 Texas Tech vs  Oklahoma State |
42% |
 Louisville vs  North Carolina |
60% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 11 CFB moneyline picks
Memphis vs South Florida: Memphis
Memphis has one of the country's most productive offenses, averaging 514 yards and 37.6 points per game. The Tigers have scored 38+ in four of their past five wins, while South Florida has struggled to move the ball consistently.
The Bulls rank 123rd nationally in total offense, and their passing game has been particularly ineffective. Memphis has defensive issues against the run, but I trust its offense to produce enough points to win on the road.
Florida State vs Pitt: Pitt
Pittsburgh snapped a three-game losing streak by hammering Georgia Tech 34-11, and the Panthers ran for 281 yards in that victory. Florida State has lost three of its past four, surrendering 44 points to Louisville and 43 to Miami during that stretch.
The Seminoles did bounce back against Boston College, but this is a tougher road assignment. If Pitt establishes the run again, the Panthers should control the pace Friday night.
Wake Forest vs SMU: Wake Forest
Wake Forest has been absolutely rolling, winning six straight games, including five by at least 24 points. The Demon Deacons have scored 38+ in each of their past five, though last week's 77-0 demolition of Merrimack isn't much of a measuring stick.
SMU just scored 51 against Virginia Tech, so this won't be easy. Still, Wake has shown it can pile up points against ACC opponents, and I like its chances in Dallas.
USC vs Indiana: USC
USC enters Bloomington as a sizable underdog, but the Trojans have already beaten Penn State on the road and knocked off Ohio State 30-18. Indiana's defense is the real problem: The Hoosiers have allowed 17 points or fewer in three of their past four.
On the other hand, Indiana has averaged just 17.8 points across those four games. USC doesn't need a shootout if its defense can keep this close into the fourth quarter.
Kansas vs West Virginia: West Virginia
West Virginia's defense has been a mess, but the Mountaineers just put up 48 points at Texas Tech and nearly stole a road win. Kansas is coming off a crushing 33-32 loss to UCF, conceding the winning touchdown in the final second.
The Jayhawks have shown they can move the ball, so I don't expect many stops here. WVU gets the home-field edge, and its offense is good enough to finish the job.
Utah vs Arizona: Utah
Utah keeps winning, yet the market continues to treat the unbeaten Utes like an ordinary Big 12 contender. They're 9-0 after beating BYU 28-20, and their ability to sustain drives has been a major part of that success.
Arizona is a dangerous road test, particularly after edging TCU 29-28, but the Utes have repeatedly delivered in close conference games. I trust Utah's balance and execution to carry it through another tough matchup.
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Texas vs LSU: Texas
Texas has bounced back from consecutive three-point losses with three straight wins, including a convincing 34-20 victory at Missouri. Arch Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns in that game, while LSU managed just 13 points against Alabama last weekend.
The challenge is protecting Manning from LSU's pass rush, which could change this game quickly. Still, Texas has enough playmakers on both sides to pull off the upset in Baton Rouge.
North Texas vs UTSA: North Texas
North Texas has won six straight games, scoring at least 45 points in each, and its offense has shown it can win both close games and shootouts. The Mean Green just put up 52 against Rice and previously scored 48 against Florida Atlantic.
That's bad news for a UTSA defense coming off a 60-point concession to FAU. The Roadrunners can score too, but I trust North Texas to keep answering all night.
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State: Texas Tech
Texas Tech has won four of its past five games, and the Red Raiders just survived a 53-48 thriller against West Virginia. Their previous victories included a 34-26 win over Arizona and a 53-25 rout of Arizona State.
Oklahoma State can make this uncomfortable at home, particularly if Tech's defense plays like it did last week. But the Red Raiders have beaten stronger competition, and I like their ability to win another high-scoring game.
Louisville vs North Carolina: Louisville
Louisville has found its offensive rhythm, winning four straight games with at least 34 points in each. The Cardinals have been particularly impressive away from home, beating Syracuse 34-26 and Georgia Tech 44-17.
North Carolina has won three of its past five, including a 38-21 victory over UConn, so this isn't a complete mismatch. Still, Louisville's recent scoring consistency gives the Cardinals the edge in Chapel Hill.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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