Texas and USC are both catching points in Week 11, and I like them to keep things closer than the market expects.
Those are just two plays on a loaded Saturday slate. My college football against-the-spread picks also cover Duke at Miami, Wake Forest-SMU, Alabama-Vanderbilt, Missouri-Georgia, and more.
Find more plays in my college football picks.
Week 11 college football picks against the spread
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Duke Miami |
+13.5 |
 Wake Forest SMU |
+1.5 |
 Alabama Vanderbilt |
-16.5 |
 Tennessee Texas A&M |
-2.5 |
 Missouri Georgia |
-16.5 |
 USC Indiana |
+7.5 |
 Utah Arizona |
-2.5 |
 Texas LSU |
+3.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 11 CFB ATS picks
Duke vs Miami: Duke +13.5
Duke and its fourth-ranked scoring defense are catching Miami at the right time. Still without Malachi Toney, the Hurricanes offense could be in for another sluggish start, especially after a hard-fought loss at Notre Dame.
The Blue Devils are 7-2 ATS on the season and have not lost by more than four points. They can muck this game up with their defense just enough to stay within two touchdowns.
Wake Forest vs SMU: Wake Forest +1.5
Schedule this, schedule that... Wake Forest has been one of the most dominant teams in the country. In the six straight wins since losing at Miami by 13, Wake Forest has won by an average of 39.3 points and went 6-0 ATS with a +26.4 spread differential.
SMU is ranked for a reason, but the Demon Deacons have been waiting for an opportunity to show just how good they are. They won't squander it.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt: Alabama -16.5
Despite getting outgained by 172 yards in a 31-13 win in Baton Rouge, Alabama is 70 spots and 24.2 points higher in SP+ rankings.
Meanwhile, Vandy's results against upper-half SEC teams have been disastrous, losing by 17 to Kentucky, 24 to Georgia, and 35 at home against Ole Miss. My faith in this game staying competitive for very long is slim.
Tennessee vs Texas A&M: Tennessee -2.5
Texas A&M is averaging just 16 points per game in SEC play, and now has to host a Tennessee team that ranks 11th in the nation in scoring defense (15.9) and just held No. 6 Kentucky to six points in a 28-point blowout win.
The Vols are far from world-beaters on offense but are getting enough on the ground (17th in rushing yards per game) to be trusted to cover anything less than a field goal.
Missouri vs Georgia: Georgia -16.5
This is a big number, but you won't catch me hopping off the Georgia train anytime soon. Coming off impressive beatdowns of Florida and Ole Miss, Georgia leads the nation in SP+ by a wide margin and ranks eighth or better in yards per play on offense and defense. The Bulldogs have found their groove, and Mizzou is not equipped on either side of the ball to stop them.
USC vs Indiana: USC +7.5
For as much respect as Indiana deserves, the Hoosiers haven't won a game by eight points since Oct. 3 at Rutgers, and their five other Big Ten matchups were all decided by one score.
USC deserves at least some credit for beating Ohio State, and while Indiana has the better defense, I'd give the Trojans a slight edge on offense and at quarterback. The Hoosiers are simply not capable of dominating teams like they did a season ago.
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Utah vs Arizona: Utah -2.5
Utah is now 8-1 ATS after beating BYU over the weekend, and I have no reason to believe the Utes will stumble against an Arizona team that's 3-6 ATS, 0-2 ATS against ranked teams, and needed a game-winning field goal to beat TCU at home. Utah ranks 14 spots higher in SP+ on offense, 14 spots higher on defense, and 13 spots higher on special teams.
Texas vs LSU: Texas +3.5
I'm never happy to put my faith in Texas, but getting a field goal and the hook in this game is close enough. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS in what I would deem the three toughest games they've played thus far: Ole Miss (lost outright), Kentucky (lost outright), and Alabama (lost outright). Sensing a trend?
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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