After going 1-2 with totals last week, I'm looking for a bounce-back with three Overs on Saturday's board. James Madison can put points up in a hurry, Alabama gets a banged-up Vanderbilt defense, and Florida vs. Kentucky offers a chance for two struggling offenses to get going.
Here are my college football Over/Under picks for Week 11, with more analysis in our college football picks.
Week 11 college football Over/Under picks
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James Madison vs 
UConn
Alabama vs 
Vanderbilt
Florida vs 
KentuckyPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 11 CFB Over/Under picks
James Madison vs UConn: Over 57.5
James Madison is averaging 40.6 points per game and just hung 54 on Southern Miss. JC Evans accounted for four touchdowns in that win, and the Dukes have scored at least 27 in four of their last five. UConn can help out, too. The Huskies are averaging 32.9 points and have put up at least 21 in five straight games.
Neither defense is coming in particularly sharp. James Madison has allowed at least 22 points in five straight, while three of UConn's last five games have finished with 59 or more total points. I'll take the Over.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt: Over 49.5
Alabama hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard quite like it did early in the season, but Vanderbilt offers a chance to change that. The Crimson Tide scored 31 against Texas A&M, and another 31 at LSU, and the Commodores are missing several defensive contributors, including edge rusher Edwin Kolenge and linebacker Josiah Broxton.
Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell is listed as probable after an ankle injury, which is important for this pick. If he's healthy enough to run the offense normally, I expect the Tide to score well into the 30s. Vanderbilt only needs to chip in a couple of touchdowns.
Florida vs Kentucky: Over 53.5
Neither offense is coming off a great week, but both defenses give us reasons to like points here. Kentucky managed just six against Tennessee, yet Florida is allowing 27.6 points per game and has struggled to stop opponents once they get moving. Kenny Minchey should find more room to work than he did last Saturday.
Kentucky's defense has problems of its own, especially getting off the field on third down. That should help a Florida offense in need of a bounce-back performance. This isn't a bet on two great offenses. It's a bet against two vulnerable defenses.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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