Week 11 rumbles into view as college football's regular season inches toward the finish line.
Let's take a look at my five favorite college football player props and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 14, starring Caden High.
Best Week 11 college football player props
For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Nate Sheppard Over 26.5 receiving yards |
|
 CJ Carr Over 235.5 passing yards |
|
 Sam Leavitt Over 254.5 passing yards |
|
 Jeffrey Overton Jr. Over 86.5 rushing yards |
|
 Caden High Over 42.5 receiving yards |
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Prop pick #1: Nate Sheppard Over 26.5 receiving yards
Nate Sheppard is putting up monstrous numbers for Duke, accumulating more touchdowns (21) than any other player in the country and the second-most yards from scrimmage (1,495).
Unstoppable force meets immovable object in Week 11 as Miami's defense has been unforgiving to opposing ball carriers. The Hurricanes allow the fewest rushing yards per game (64.3) on a stingy 2.5 yards per carry, and allow the fewest yards after contact (2.34).
They are exploitable through the air (134th in EPA per pass allowed, 133rd in passing success rate since Week 6), and Sheppard can hurt them there. We've seen the linebackers vulnerable in coverage, and Notre Dame capitalized on these deficiencies a week ago when its running backs combined for 76 receiving yards.
Sheppard averages 34 receiving yards per game, and this forecasts as a higher-usage game through the air than typical.
- Matchup: Duke vs. Miami
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at Noon ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
- TV: ABC
Prop pick #2: CJ Carr Over 235.5 passing yards
CJ Carr has been a regular in this column, coming through time after time as the market prices him in the gutters. The future NFL quarterback is a Heisman Trophy odds contender, and Marcus Freeman won't hold any punches in letting his star player race toward the sport's most prestigious individual award.
A home matchup against Boston College hardly inspires the shakes. The Eagles check in at 106th in passing success rate allowed in their last four games, and Carr will have all day in the pocket to pick them apart given their inability to pressure the quarterback (113th in PFF's pass rush grade).
Carr has a decent Heisman case as the best player on one of the best teams in the country. Now he needs to pile on some gaudy statistics to boost his resume, and Boston College is a prime opportunity to do just that.
- Matchup: Boston College vs. Notre Dame
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Ind.
- TV: NBC
Prop pick #3: Sam Leavitt Over 254.5 passing yards
Just how far can a difficult matchup decrease a player's expected output? Texas has a stout defense, sure, but pricing down a Lane Kiffin quarterback at 254.5 passing yards is simply too far of a downward adjustment, so I'm buying back on the Over.
Sam Leavitt averages 283.7 passing yards per game. He's been on a heater as his receiving options have emerged in full (looking at you, Jackson Harris and Trey'Dez Green), upping his production to 333 yards per game across his last four contests.
The freestyling footballer tends to take off early from the pocket, and Kiffin has placed an emphasis on keeping him in the pocket longer to make his reads and use his arm first and foremost. That's borne fruit lately, especially as Leavitt dealt with a hamstring injury that forced him to alter his play style.
The Arizona State transfer is now fully healthy and will be relied upon in a must-win game for playoff-hopeful LSU.
- Matchup: Texas vs. LSU
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La.
- TV: ABC
Prop pick #4: Jeffrey Overton Jr. Over 86.5 rushing yards
Another regular in this column, Jeffrey Overton Jr. has emerged as one of the ACC's top running backs as a true sophomore. He's racked up 1,009 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns despite running behind one of the most injured offensive lines in the nation.
That line got a few starters back last week, and Overton responded with 123 rushing yards and two scores despite the Hokies trailing and playing with a negative game script for much of that contest.
He should continue rumbling against a Stanford defense that has struggled mightily against the run, checking in at 136th in EPA per rush and 135th in rushing success rate allowed in its last four games. The Cardinal have been gashed for 250.5 rushing yards per game in that span and simply don't get enough push up front (128th in defensive line yards) to disrupt Overton's flow state.
- Matchup: Stanford vs. Virginia Tech
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Va.
- TV: ACC Network
Prop pick #5: Caden High Over 42.5 receiving yards
On the other side of this matchup, Virginia Tech's secondary has proven vulnerable. The Hokies surrender 232.7 passing yards per game on 7.8 yards per attempt, and Stanford likes to chuck it around (19th in pass rate in its last four games).
Tech has a particular weakness for slot receivers, getting burned by Maryland's Chris Durr Jr. (12-109-2), Georgia Tech's Jordan Allen (10-120-0), and SMU's Yamir Knight (6-103-3), among others.
Caden High runs 83.3% of his routes in the slot. The former South Carolina State transfer has great efficiency (2.33 yards per route run) and has been targeted 24 times in Stanford's last two games.
High combines efficiency, volume, and matchup to make for a great play on his Over in Week 11.
- Matchup: Stanford vs. Virginia Tech
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Va.
- TV: ACC Network
- Props: 41-28, +14.92 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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