Week 11 College Football Top Picks for Saturday, Nov. 14: Top Pick From Every Game Preview

Our Week 11 college football Top Picks cover 14 Saturday matchups, from the noon kickoffs through North Dakota State's late-night trip to Hawaii.

Covers' experts break down their best spreads, totals, and team props, with more analysis in our college football picks.

Week 11 top picks at a glance (Saturday, Nov. 14)

Start trading with Kalshi today!

Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!

Sign Up Now at

*Eligible U.S. locations only

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Noon ET kickoffs

Duke vs Miami

• Kickoff: 12 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Analyst: Chris Hatfield

Top pick: Duke +13.5

The Miami Hurricanes rank first nationally in adjusted offensive EPA per play, but that ranking doesn’t fully describe its offense without Malachi Toney. He could turn a routine completion into a touchdown.

With Joshua Moore also out, the Duke Blue Devils can devote more attention to Cooper Barkate and make Darian Mensah sustain drives without that same margin for error. The Blue Devils rank 18th in adjusted defensive EPA allowed and hold opponents to a 40% passing success rate, so they have a credible way to make Miami work for points.

Miami’s run defense presents a problem for Nate Sheppard, but Walker Eget ranks 30th in passing EPA per dropback and can attack the weaker part of the Hurricanes’ defense.

Read our full Duke vs. Miami predictions.

Northwestern vs Ohio State

• Kickoff: 12 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Ed Scimia

Top pick: Northwestern team total Over 13.5 points

Outside of Iowa, no team has held Northwestern to fewer than 23 points this year. And while I might normally be worried about Ohio State changing that, the Buckeyes have seemingly lost a step defensively.

Even before the two-game losing streak, Ohio State's defense hasn't quite at the level of Iowa or Indiana, so Northwestern has already faced more imposing units. The Buckeyes also won't grind the game to a halt in the same way Iowa did.

The Wildcats are going to have more success than expected here. I like their team total Over at up to 60%, and would consider Over 16.5 at up to 50%.

Read our full Northwestern vs. Ohio State predictions.

Early afternoon

Alabama vs Vanderbilt

• Kickoff: 12:45 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Analyst: Chris Hatfield

Top pick: Alabama -16.5

Roll Tide Roll, indeed. I'm playing the Alabama Crimson Tide to 55% against a bad football team in the Vanderbilt Commodores.

The Tide rank second nationally in opponent-adjusted net EPA per play and Vandy is in a different weight class in that regard all together at 60th. That gap matters on both sides of the ball.

Vanderbilt’s defense is 54th in adjusted efficiency and allows successful plays on nearly 46% of snaps, giving Bama ways to sustain drives without depending on deep shots from Keelon Russell.

The Commodores will also have a tougher job protecting freshman quarterback Jared Curtis against an Alabama defense ranked eighth by adjusted EPA. Russell is listed as probable with an ankle injury, so it's worth getting assurance before locking this one.

However, if he plays as expected, I’m comfortable laying the number.

Read our full Alabama vs. Vanderbilt predictions.

Tennessee vs Texas A&M

• Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Analyst: Shawn Krest

Top pick: Tennessee -2.5

I'll take Tennessee to cover, even if I have to give up another point. 

Texas A&M's offense has produced yards but not points. The Aggies have been held to single digits in three SEC games this year, including last week, when they managed just nine points against South Carolina despite gaining 450 yards.

Tennessee is not the defense to try to get well against. The Vols lead the nation in sacks and are second in passing touchdowns allowed. Tennessee is at or near the top of the SEC in most defensive categories. UT’s offense isn’t at the same elite level, but the Vols have strung together 24-plus points against SEC foes for five straight games. 

The outlook is bleak for A&M, which has blown fourth-quarter leads in its last two SEC games. 

Read our full Tennessee vs. Texas A&M predictions.

3:30 p.m. ET kickoffs

USC vs Indiana

• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: JD Yonke

Top pick: Under 50.5

Indiana has mustered just 14.3 ppg in its last four games. Either a banged-up Hoover or a seventh-year journeyman backup with 6.9 yards per attempt in his career (Wilson) isn't best positioned to succeed.

The rushing attack hasn't been able to carry the load, ranking just 134th in EPA per rush and 134th in rushing explosiveness since Week 6. USC's much-maligned defense has bowed up lately, checking in at 54th in EPA per play and 19th in explosiveness in that span, overperforming relative to expectations.

Despite the negatives about Indiana's offense, the same isn't true of an elite defense that allows 259.2 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.

Read our full USC vs. Indiana predictions.

Baylor vs BYU

• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Geoff Clark

Top pick: Baylor +7.5

I'm on Baylor +7.5, down to +6.5, because it keeps outperforming market expectations — especially on the road — and BYU could be vulnerable to a letdown after losing last week's Holy War.

Baylor is 6-3 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread, including 3-0 ATS on the road with a +23.2 spread differential. The Bears are also 5-1 ATS in Big XII play with a +9.7 spread differential, while BYU has failed to cover three straight since upsetting Notre Dame.

The gap between these teams isn't as wide as the rankings suggest.

GameOnPaper has Baylor 29th nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play and BYU 17th, while Bill Connelly's SP+ makes the Cougars only 5.4-point favorites.

Read our full Baylor vs. BYU predictions.

Boston College vs Notre Dame

• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock
• Analyst: Geoff Clark

Top pick: Notre Dame -30.5

I'll lay the lumber with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -30.5, up to -32.5.

Notre Dame has an epic edge in the trenches over the Boston College Eagles, one of the most predictive areas of football handicapping. The Fighting Irish's offensive line owns the best sack rate in the country, while BC ranks 129th in front-seven havoc rate allowed, according to College Football Charts.

That mismatch gets even uglier, as the Eagles have one of the country's worst passing attacks, and nobody has averaged 4.5 yards per carry against Notre Dame this season.

BC should live in third-and-long, letting the Fighting Irish pin their ears back and tee off on the quarterback.

Read our full Boston College vs. Notre Dame predictions.

Late afternoon and evening kickoffs

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma

• Kickoff: 4:15 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Analyst: Nick Galaida

Top pick: Oklahoma -1.5

Following a promising start to the 2026 campaign, Ole Miss has done potentially irreversible damage to their playoff hopes with two losses in the last three weeks.

Last weekend, Georgia dominated Ole Miss from the opening kickoff (91.9% win probability at the end of the 1st quarter), to the point that head coach Pete Golding told his team at the half that he wasn't worried about the score — he only wanted his players to focus on putting good effort on tape in the final two quarters. 

Ole Miss's defense has been nowhere to be found against quality opponents, most recently getting outgained 481-252 at home by Georgia last weekend.

Oklahoma's strength is its stop unit, but John Mateer & Co. are also coming off a 10-for-18 showing on third down against Florida, dominating time of possession in the process. They should have a field day against the Rebels in Norman.

Read our full Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma predictions.

Oregon State vs Boise State

• Kickoff: 6 p.m. ET
• TV: USA Network
• Analyst: Colby Marchio

Top pick: Boise State -14.5

Oregon State will likely be without starting quarterback Braden Atkinson, who is listed as doubtful with a hand injury. Senior backup Maalik Murphy is expected to get the start.

Murphy has attempted just 19 passes this season, completing 16 for 156 yards. He made eight starts for the Beavers last season, but it's been well over a year since his last one. It'll be interesting to see how he performs with that much time between starts.

The Broncos should take care of business, as they've been rolling since their Week 1 loss to Oregon. Boise State ranks 15th in scoring margin, winning by an average of 13.8 points per game. Drawing a defense that's allowing over 180 rushing yards per game, while ranking seventh nationally in rushing yards per game, should have this offense foaming at the mouth.

Dig for -13.5, or -14, as getting the key number is crucial, especially with both defenses being a bit shaky.

Read our full Oregon State vs. Boise State predictions.

Florida vs Kentucky

• Kickoff: 6:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Analyst: Rob Paul

Top pick: Over 52.5

Florida's defense has been the death of it all season, and it hit an all-time low last week, making John Mateer look good. Kentucky's offense is far more efficient, and the reason I'd play the Over at 52.5 or better.

The Wildcats have one of the best offensive lines in the country, paving the way for a unit ranked 16th nationally in success rate (49.2%). With Kenny Minchey's efficiency (77.8% adjusted completion percentage) and the Wildcats' advantage on the line, they shouldn't have trouble converting on money downs against a defense sitting 132nd in third/fourth down success rate (54.8%).

However, the Gators will move the ball too against a Kentucky defense that struggles to stop the run. The Wildcats are currently 96th in defensive success rate (45.8%), and Florida running back Jadan Baugh ranks top 10 nationally in forced missed tackles (48).

Read our full Florida vs. Kentucky predictions.

Utah vs Arizona

• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Nick Galaida

Top pick: Arizona +2.5

Utah is unbeaten this season, but has been on upset alert late in a few games during the last month.

BYU had a 59.7% win probability against them midway through the third quarter last weekend, but committed four turnovers in a one-score loss.

Houston had a 74.7% win probability in the second half two weeks before that, but had three turnovers in the fourth quarter in an eventual Utah comeback win.

Even Colorado had Utah sweating, holding a 17-13 lead late in the third quarter when those teams met in mid-October.

Arizona isn't a team that is going to blow many late leads. If the Utes are trailing late in the game this weekend, it could mean the end of their undefeated season.

Read our full Utah vs. Arizona predictions.

Texas vs LSU

• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Analyst: Rob Paul

Top pick: Under 46.5

Steve Sarkisian and Lane Kiffin are known for their offenses, but both have elite defenses carrying their teams this season. With how sporadic Manning and Leavitt have been, especially in high-profile games, I'd play the Under at 45.5 or better.

Manning has been one of the most mistake-prone QBs in the country this season, with the 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate (4%) and the fifth-highest pressure-to-sack rate in the P4 (27.2%). And LSU's defense is as disruptive as it gets, ranking third nationally in sacks (36) and fourth in havoc rate (22.2%).

The Longhorns' defense is nearly as opportunistic, too, ranking 11th nationally in havoc rate (20%), and it's getting the best defensive player in the country back in full force. Colin Simmons is a full go this week, and over the first six games of the season he racked up 26 pressures, 16 TFLs, and 10.5 sacks. 

Read our full Texas vs. LSU predictions.

Late-night kickoffs

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State

• Kickoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Analyst: Geoff Clark

Top pick: Oklahoma State -3.5

I’ll take the Oklahoma State Cowboys -3.5, up to -4.5, as I expect the public to gravitate toward the higher-ranked, reigning Big 12 champion catching 3-and-the-hook.

However, the underlying numbers favor Oklahoma State. 

The Cowboys rank 16th nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play, compared with 32nd for the Texas Tech Red Raiders, per GameOnPaper.com. And while laying -3.5 is never comfortable, it’s less intimidating in a game with a 70-plus-point total, where one score represents a smaller share of the expected scoring.

Oklahoma State also owns the best win on either resume, upsetting a healthy Oregon team in Week 2 when the Ducks were 24-point favorites.

Read our full Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State predictions.

North Dakota State vs Hawaii

• Kickoff: 11 p.m. ET
• TV: The CW
• Analyst: JD Yonke

Top pick: North Dakota State -6.5

In a game with sustained winds above 20 mph, back the team that can consistently run the football. Play North Dakota State at -7 or better.

The Bison are fully rested off a bye week and are ready to implement their physical style. The big uglies up front can create room against a Hawaii defense ranked 130th in PFF's rush defense grade and surrendering 171 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry.

Defense travels, and Tim Polasek's squad allows the second-fewest ppg (11.9) in the nation.

NDSU limits opponents to 248.8 total yards per game and 4.4 yards per play, and will control the flow of this game en route to a relatively comfortable victory.

Read our full North Dakota State vs. Hawaii predictions.

More Week 11 college football picks

Want to build a bigger card? These Covers roundups cover every bet type for the weekend:

• Week 11 college football picks against the spread
• Week 11 college football moneyline picks
• Week 11 college football Over/Under picks
• Week 11 Group of 6 picks
• Week 11 underdog picks and upset predictions
• Week 11 college football AI predictions
• Week 11 Top 25 predictions and watchability ratings

Check the college football weather report and the college football injury report, compare numbers across college football betting sites, and brush up with our guide to betting on college football before finalizing today’s picks.

All of today’s matchups are also on the NCAAF scores and matchups page, and the full pick archive lives in free college football picks.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic