The Kentucky Wildcats look to bounce back from last week's brutal loss at Tennessee when they host the rival Florida Gators on Saturday night.
My Florida vs Kentucky prop picks feature two Wildcats who should thrive against the Gators' struggling defense, plus a Florida quarterback who could benefit from a pass-heavy game script.
For more college football picks and analysis, check out Rob Paul's Florida vs Kentucky predictions ahead of kickoff at 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Best Florida vs Kentucky props
Prop pick #1: CJ Baxter Over 63.5 rushing yards
Kentucky's offense has rolled when it hasn't faced a high-caliber defense this season, and Florida certainly doesn't qualify.
I'm backing CJ Baxter to have himself a day, and I'd play this rushing total up to 56% against a Florida front that ranks among the nation's worst in stuff rate.
The Gators rank in the bottom half nationally in explosive run rate allowed, a key reason they're 93rd in EPA per rush and 111th in success rate.
The Wildcats rank third in success rate this year and sit in the 83rd percentile in explosive run rate.
Baxter's 38.8% breakaway yard rate ranks 29th among 116 backs with at least 90 carries. With a game script that should see him get 15-plus carries, this one's a no-brainer for me.
Prop pick #2: Willie Rodriguez Over 48.5 receiving yards
Florida's defense allowed Oklahoma tight end Rocky Beers to rack up 72 yards on just four catches last week, his best game since September.
That's why I'm backing Willie Rodriguez for a strong outing, playable up to 55%.
Rodriguez ranks second on the Wildcats in targets. In Will Stein's offense, quarterback Kenny Minchey has been taught to take what's given to him, and the tight end has become a reliable option.
Brad White's soft zone defense ranks 120th in defensive passing success rate and sits in the 18th percentile in explosive pass rate.
Rodriguez ranks sixth among all tight ends in yards after catch (YAC). He's caught at least five passes in six of Kentucky's seven SEC games, and that consistent volume makes this receiving total very attainable.
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Prop pick #3: Aaron Philo Over 194.5 passing yards
Sources have confirmed that Aaron Philo will start at quarterback for Florida this week, and I'm backing him to clear this total, playable up to 54%.
I don't think Philo will have a good game overall, as the Wildcats should get after him and pick him off at least once. But this Kentucky defense is prone to giving up big plays through the air and struggles to get off the field on third down, ranking 132nd in yards to gain and 115th in success rate.
The Gators rank 29th in passing success rate, and they're often forced into passing situations because of the ridiculous number of penalties committed by their offensive line.
Philo surpassed this number in all six of his starts before the Georgia game. With Kentucky expected to play from ahead, Philo should have enough passing opportunities to do so again, provided Jon Sumrall doesn't pull him.
- Prop picks: 11-6, +4.89 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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