The 2026 College Football Playoff race is heating up, and there are still plenty of spots up for grabs. Here are my 2026 College Football Playoff bracket predictions, including the projected 12-team field and the winner of every round.
Georgia and Utah are leading the charge, while Notre Dame, UCLA, and several SEC contenders have a real shot at making a run. My bracket is based on where I think these teams will finish, not just where they sit in the rankings today.
Here’s how I see the playoff playing out, right through to the national championship in Las Vegas.
Chris Vasile's College Football Playoff bracket predictions
My projected top four are Georgia, Utah, Notre Dame, and UCLA. All four would get a first-round bye in this bracket. I’m projecting Georgia, Utah, UCLA, and Miami to win their conferences, with Notre Dame qualifying through its Top 12 finish.
Georgia has a strong case for the top seed after hammering Ole Miss 42-7. Utah is still unbeaten, but I have the Utes running into trouble against Alabama in the quarterfinals.
Miami slips to No. 5 in my bracket after losing to Notre Dame. Boise State takes the final spot as my projected automatic qualifier from outside the four power conferences.
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Rob Paul's College Football Playoff bracket predictions
Rob Paul's case for Iowa
It’ll be one heck of a race for the final two at-large bids this year, with Wake Forest, Texas Tech, BYU, Kentucky, Houston, and even Oregon fighting for those spots. But I think the Demon Deacons and the Hawkeyes will be the last two in.
The case for Wake is pretty easy to make at this point. The Demon Deacons’ one loss came to Miami, and Gio Lopez and Carlos Hernandez lead an offense that’s No. 1 nationally in EPA per dropback. The case for Iowa is a little tougher, but I’m buying the Hawkeyes’ momentum.
Kirk Ferentz once again has an elite offensive line (two All-Americans), a top-10 defense (No. 9 in net adjusted EPA per play), and one of the country’s best special teams units (ranked No. 6 by SP+). With Hank Brown settling in at QB, Iowa even has a passing game that can make some noise, thanks to playmakers like Tony Diaz and DJ Vonnahme.
Most importantly, though, Iowa closes the regular season with Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska. The Hawkeyes will likely be 10-2, and the CFP selection committee will have a tough time leaving a two-loss Big Ten team out.
New Mexico over Boise State
The Group of Six championship spot in the CFP this year is basically down to three teams: Boise State, New Mexico, and Liberty.
They’re the only three G6 programs with fewer than two losses. However, the Flames’ loss came to James Madison, while both the Broncos and Lobos lost close games to Power Four programs. It’s almost impossible for Liberty to get in if the other two finish the season 12-1 with conference championships.
So why New Mexico over Boise State? With fairly similar resumes, the Lobos are ranked slightly higher by SP+ (No. 23 vs. the Broncos at No. 27) and have an elite defense that leads the country in havoc rate (25.5%), success rate (31.9%), and available yards percentage (26.5%).
Boise State also has a slightly tougher path down the stretch. The Broncos play Oregon State, San Diego State, the Pac-12 flex game in the regular-season finale, and a Pac-12 Championship that is trending toward a rematch with a Texas State team that nearly upset them.
One loss for Boise State and they’re done if New Mexico wins out against UNLV, Wyoming, Air Force, and the Mountain West Championship (likely a rematch with North Dakota State or Wyoming).
Vasile's Projected first-round matchups
| Matchup | Predicted winner |
|---|---|
| No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas | Texas |
| No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Miami | Miami |
| No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 Alabama | Alabama |
| No. 11 Wake Forest at No. 6 Indiana | Indiana |
First-round predictions and analysis
Texas over Tennessee
Tennessee just put 34 points on Kentucky, so this would be no easy opener for Texas. But the Longhorns are coming off a 34-20 road win against Missouri, and I like their chances if this game is in Austin. It could go either way, but I'm giving Texas the slight edge at home.
Miami over Boise State
Boise State just hung 64 points on Colorado State, so the Broncos can clearly score. But this is a much tougher trip. Miami lost a close one at Notre Dame, and I still think the Hurricanes have enough on both sides of the ball to handle Boise State at home.
Alabama over Texas Tech
Texas Tech survived a 53-48 shootout against West Virginia, but that kind of game is harder to win in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is coming off a 31-13 road win over LSU, and I trust the Tide more in a close playoff game. Give me Alabama to move on.
Indiana over Wake Forest
Wake Forest deserves credit for putting itself in the playoff conversation, but I'm siding with Indiana here. Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers in the mix again, and home field would be a major boost in a December playoff game. Indiana moves on to the quarterfinals.
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College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions
The top four seeds receive first-round byes, meaning Georgia, Utah, Notre Dame, and UCLA would each need three wins to capture the national championship.
Here are my projected quarterfinal results:
| Matchup | Predicted winner |
|---|---|
| No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Texas | Georgia |
| No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 5 Miami | Miami |
| No. 2 Utah vs. No. 7 Alabama | Alabama |
| No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Indiana | Notre Dame |
Quarterfinal analysis
Georgia gets a Texas team that has already shown it can win on the road. Still, the Bulldogs just flattened Ole Miss 42-7, and they look like the tougher team right now. I’m taking Georgia to move on.
Miami over UCLA is my biggest quarterfinal upset. The Bruins have earned their spot near the top, but the Hurricanes have already shown they can hang with a team like Notre Dame. I’m betting on Miami bouncing back and pulling this one out.
Utah deserves plenty of credit for reaching 9-0, but Alabama would be its toughest test yet. The Tide just won 31-13 at LSU and have faced a much tougher schedule. I like Alabama to hand Utah its first loss and move on to the semifinals.
Notre Dame just beat Miami 31-24 in one of its biggest games of the season. Indiana would be another stiff test, but I like the Irish to keep that run going and reach the semifinals.
College football playoff semifinal odds
College Football Playoff semifinal predictions
Georgia over Miami
Georgia to make the finals: 50%
Miami would be dangerous after knocking off UCLA, but Georgia is playing at another level right now. The Bulldogs just held Ole Miss to seven points, and that defense would make things tough on the Hurricanes. I’ve got Georgia going to the title game.
Notre Dame over Alabama
Notre Dame to make the final: 30%
Alabama would be a tough matchup, but Notre Dame just beat Miami 31-24 and sits No. 1 in ESPN’s FPI. The Irish have been one of the most complete teams in the country, and I like their chances to win a close one and reach the title game.
College Football National Championship prediction
Projected matchup: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
Chris Vasile's national champion prediction: Georgia Bulldogs 29%
Notre Dame has a real case here. The Irish just beat Miami, and ESPN’s FPI actually rates them No. 1 in the country. But I’m going with Georgia to win it all.
The Bulldogs just crushed Ole Miss 42-7 and already own a road win against Alabama. They’re putting up more than 41 points per game while giving up just 14. That’s a hard combination to beat, especially against the schedule Georgia has faced.
Notre Dame would make it a fight, but Georgia has been the more convincing team against top competition. Give me the Bulldogs to finish the job in Las Vegas.
Rob Paul's national champion prediction: Georgia Bulldogs 29%
Kirby Smart has his mojo back, and this Georgia team is the best he’s had since the 2022 championship roster that won back-to-back titles. The Bulldogs have a gamer in QB Gunner Stockton, their deepest playmaker corps in years, an experienced offensive line, and a defense full of future NFL picks.
Georgia is the only team in the country ranked top 12 in both points per opportunity (4.91) and points allowed per opportunity (2.68), and one of three teams ranked top 20 in both offensive success rate (51.7%) and havoc rate (19.4%). This is the most well-rounded team in college football.
In a season of chaos, Georgia and this coaching staff are the team to trust to take home the CFP championship.
2027 College Football National Championship odds
Georgia is my pick to win the national championship, but there's no shortage of teams capable of making a run. Notre Dame, Alabama, Utah, and several other contenders are still in the mix as the playoff picture takes shape.
The latest College Football National Championship probabilities from Kalshi show how the market views each team's chances of winning it all.
College Football Playoff bubble watch
Some good teams will be left out of this 12-team field, and a lot can change before conference championship weekend.
These are a few teams I’m keeping an eye on as the committee works through the final rankings:
BYU: The Cougars lost 28-20 to Utah, but they’re still in the conversation. Another loss would make their path much tougher.
Kentucky: Getting blown out 34-6 by Tennessee is a tough result to explain to the committee. The Wildcats need to finish strong.
Oregon: Beating Ohio State 41-28 helps, but the Ducks still have work to do. That win keeps them in the mix.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes took another hit against Oregon. They’ll need some help, and they can’t afford many more mistakes.
2026 College Football Playoff qualification odds
With only 12 playoff spots available, there are going to be some disappointed teams come Selection Day. BYU, Oregon, Kentucky, and Ohio State are among the programs still trying to strengthen their cases, and every result matters from here on out.
Check out the latest College Football Playoff qualification probabilities on Kalshi to see which teams the market expects to make the field.
Latest College Football Playoff rankings
The College Football Playoff selection committee released its first 2026 rankings on November 3, with Miami, Georgia, Utah, and Indiana occupying the top four spots.
However, Week 10 produced several major developments, including Notre Dame's win over Miami, Georgia's blowout victory over Ole Miss, and Utah's win against BYU.
The committee will release its next rankings on Tuesday, November 10.
For the latest official updates, visit the College Football Playoff rankings and the Associated Press Top 25 poll.
2026-27 College Football Playoff schedule
| Round | Date |
|---|---|
| Selection Day | December 6, 2026 |
| First round | December 18-19, 2026 |
| Quarterfinals | December 30, 2026 - January 1, 2027 |
| Semifinals | January 14-15, 2027 |
| National championship | January 25, 2027 |
The 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship will take place at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.
College Football Playoff expanding to 24 teams in 2027
The 12-team College Football Playoff won't be around much longer.
The CFP announced Monday, November 9, that it will expand to 24 teams beginning with the 2027 season as part of a new five-year media rights agreement with ESPN.
The new format will feature 24 teams, with the top eight seeds receiving first-round byes. The Power 4 conference championship games will also be eliminated, with conference champions determined by regular-season results.
That means the 2026 season will be the last under the current 12-team format.
For more details, see the official CFP announcement.
Here's the original report from ESPN's Heather Dinich:
The CFP and ESPN have agreed on a five-year, nearly $1.7 billion deal that will expand the field to 24 teams in 2027 with ESPN as its continued broadcast partner, sources told ESPN, a seismic move that also eliminates the lucrative Power 4 conference championship games.
— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) November 9, 2026
How does the 12-team College Football Playoff work?
The College Football Playoff features 12 teams, with the top four seeds earning first-round byes.
Under the 2026 format, the conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC receive automatic bids, along with the highest-ranked team from the six other eligible conferences.
Notre Dame also receives an automatic bid if it finishes inside the committee's final Top 12.
The remaining spots are awarded to the highest-ranked eligible teams.
Seeds No. 5 through No. 8 host first-round games against seeds No. 12 through No. 9, respectively. The winners advance to the quarterfinals, where the top four seeds enter the bracket.
There is no reseeding between rounds.
Downloadable College Football Playoff bracket.
Get in on the action this year by downloading and filling out your own unique CFP bracket.
College Football Playoff bracket FAQ
When will the official 2026 College Football Playoff bracket be announced?
The official 12-team bracket will be revealed on Sunday, December 6, 2026, following conference championship weekend.
How many teams make the College Football Playoff?
Twelve teams qualify for the playoff, including automatic qualifiers and at-large selections.
Which teams receive first-round byes?
The top four seeds in the final CFP rankings receive first-round byes and advance directly to the quarterfinals.
Where is the 2027 College Football National Championship?
The national championship game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Monday, January 25, 2027.
Can Notre Dame qualify for the 2026 College Football Playoff?
Yes. Under the 2026 rules, Notre Dame receives an automatic playoff berth if it finishes inside the final CFP Top 12.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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