Texas vs LSU Prediction, Top Picks & Odds Tonight: College Football Week 11

Two of Nick Saban's former play callers meet at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., today at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) when LSU hosts Texas.

The Tigers are 4.5-point favorites in Death Valley, but my Texas vs. LSU prediction and college football picks back the Longhorns' defense to keep it close with Colin Simmons fully healthy for the game.

See the latest Texas-LSU lines on Kalshi, where LSU carries a 61% win probability, plus our Week 11 Top Picks and Brad Powers' Week 11 predictions.

Who will win Texas vs LSU today: Texas +4.5

It's hard to have much faith in either of these programs, but Texas has been the more consistent team this season and seems to have turned a corner. The Longhorns have covered in three straight games, two against Top 25 teams, and I like them at +2.5 or better against LSU.

Since its upset loss to Florida, Texas has outscored opponents 99-50 with Arch Manning playing far more consistently (nine total TDs, two interceptions). LSU hasn't shown up in any of its games against quality opponents, failing to cover in all three of its matchups against currently ranked programs.

In those three games, Sam Leavitt threw as many touchdowns as interceptions (3) and was sacked nine times with a 21.1% pressure-to-sack rate. If his Jekyll and Hyde play shows up against a Texas defense ranked No. 5 in success rate (36.6%), LSU will lose.

See our college football picks against the spread for more Week 11 sides.

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TOP PICK
Texas vs LSU Over/Under pick today: Under 46.5

Steve Sarkisian and Lane Kiffin are known for their offenses, but both have elite defenses carrying their teams this season. With how sporadic Manning and Leavitt have been, especially in high-profile games, I'd play the Under at 45.5 or better.

Manning has been one of the most mistake-prone QBs in the country this season, with the 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate (4%) and the fifth-highest pressure-to-sack rate in the P4 (27.2%). And LSU's defense is as disruptive as it gets, ranking third nationally in sacks (36) and fourth in havoc rate (22.2%).

The Longhorns' defense is nearly as opportunistic, too, ranking 11th nationally in havoc rate (20%), and it's getting the best defensive player in the country back in full force. Colin Simmons is a full go this week, and over the first six games of the season he racked up 26 pressures, 16 TFLs, and 10.5 sacks.

See our college football Over/Under picks for more Week 11 totals.

COVERS INTEL: Both of these defenses are championship-caliber, with Texas' defense ranking No. 1 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play (-0.29) and No. 3 in available yards percentage (31.3%), and LSU's defense ranking No. 4 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play (-0.23) and No. 4 in available yards percentage (31.8%).

Texas vs LSU prop: LSU TT Under 25.5

LSU hasn't faced a defense this good this season, and I would take the Under on the Tigers' team total at 24.5 or better. 

Kiffin's offense has struggled in its biggest games, scoring 24 against Ole Miss and 13 against Alabama. Neither of those defenses is as sound and aggressive as Will Muschamp's, which is one of the best at limiting quality drives (something that was key for the Crimson Tide in their upset of the Tigers).

Texas is top 10 nationally in points allowed per opportunity (2.32) and puts opponents into tough situations on money downs. The Longhorns' defense is fourth in the country in early-down EPA per play (-0.14), and forcing Leavitt into obvious passing situations on third and long will kill this LSU offense.

Texas vs LSU combo

What happens when two of the least trustworthy teams with two of the most talented rosters in the country play? I'm guessing a close, ugly matchup where both defenses shine against these headache-inducing QBs.

Texas and LSU both allow fewer than 18 points per game, and both rank top 10 nationally in EPA per drive on defense. But the Longhorns have been the more competent team against quality opponents, and with the Tigers being more susceptible on the ground (55th in EPA per rush on defense), Texas' run game could be the difference.

Raleek Brown has been Sarkisian's best playmaker during the three-game winning streak, with 346 yards from scrimmage and three TDs. If he gets going, Texas can potentially win the No. 1 must-watch game in my Top 25 predictions.

Texas vs LSU combo

• Texas +4.5
• Under 46.5
• First half Under 23.5

Texas vs LSU market trends

Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Texas vs. LSU prediction.

Texas vs LSU odds today

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

• Spread: Texas +4.5 | LSU -4.5
• Over/Under: Over 46.5 (50%) | Under 46.5 (50%)
• Moneyline: Texas 39% | LSU 61%

Follow the Texas vs. LSU market prices on Kalshi up to kickoff. See our college football moneyline picks for more win probabilities.

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Texas vs LSU weather

Weather isn't expected to affect the game in Baton Rouge, La., tonight.

See our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.

Texas vs LSU trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in LSU's last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs. LSU, and see our college football AI predictions.

How to watch Texas vs LSU

Texas vs LSU latest injuries

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