Our Texas vs. LSU score prediction gives the Tigers a narrow win in Death Valley, where the Longhorns will try to keep their three-game winning streak alive. These SEC foes meet tonight at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Our AI projection model forecasts a 24-20 LSU win in our college football AI predictions for Week 11, putting us on Texas +4.5 and Under 46.5. Below, we compare those picks with the Covers projections and expert picks using odds from the best prediction market apps.
Texas vs LSU score prediction & AI picks
Win probabilities courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; latest odds may vary based on market action.
Texas vs LSU AI prediction
SAT · NOV. 14 · 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff · ABC
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
Arch Manning is giving Texas a chance to win these close games. He completed 28 of 38 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns in the 34-20 win at Missouri, and Cam Coleman is available after missing that game. The concern is whether Manning gets enough time to use his receivers: tackle Trevor Goosby is out, guard Cole Hutson is questionable, and LSU has 36 sacks this season. Getting the ball out quickly can keep the Longhorns moving without asking that protection to hold up on every snap. Rob Paul also takes the points in his Texas vs. LSU prediction. Our forecast leaves Texas just inside +4.5, so there is little cushion on the spread.
LSU has to turn its yardage into touchdowns. The Tigers gained 457 yards against Alabama but scored only 13 points, settling for an early field goal and later failing on fourth down deep in Crimson Tide territory. Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons is available, giving Sam Leavitt another reason to get rid of the ball quickly. Right tackle Weston Davis is probable, but keeping Leavitt upright is only part of the task: LSU also needs to finish drives against a defense that held Missouri to 3-for-16 on third down. Our 44-point projection leaves room for LSU to improve on last week without turning this into a shootout. Under 46.5 is the play, though a turnover that sets up a short field could erase that cushion quickly.
Texas vs LSU AI projections & expert picks
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Rob Paul |
|---|---|---|
| TEX+4.5 | LSU-4.5 | TEX+4.5 |
Our model and Rob Paul both take Texas +4.5, while the Covers projections favor LSU -4.5 with a projected 5.50-point margin. Paul also likes Under 45.5; our 44-point forecast supports Under 46.5. Both models have LSU winning, but they fall on opposite sides of the spread.
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How our college football AI predictions work
Our college football AI predictions use a custom Bayesian score model built from historical game results, separate offensive and defensive team ratings, home-field effects, and college football scoring patterns. The matchup analysis adds context from current team statistics, injuries, and recent results.
Score projections are generated independently of market prices. We compare each fixed score with the selected full-game spread and total to derive our picks, and track results against the original selections and lines. Kalshi percentages are market purchase quotes, separate from the model’s forecasts; the two sides may not add to exactly 100%.
A narrow difference between a projected score and a market line is a lean, not a guarantee of an edge.
