Florida vs Kentucky Best Bets, Odds, & Expert Picks: College Football Week 11

Florida heads to Lexington looking to stop its slide, while Kentucky is trying to rebound from a blowout loss at Tennessee. Brad Powers and Colby Marchio like the Gators getting points, Rob Paul is backing the Wildcats, and Chris Vasile is taking the Over.

Here are our Florida vs Kentucky expert picks and more college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 14.

Florida vs Kentucky expert picks for Saturday

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Expert pick	Probability
Brad Powers: Florida +3.5	54%
Rob Paul: Kentucky -3.5	46%
Colby Marchio: Florida +3.5	54%
Chris Vasile: Over 52.5	50%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Florida +3.5

My power ratings make Florida just a 0.5-point underdog, the biggest disparity of the week. Both teams have a +0.5 yards-per-play margin on the season and have played similarly difficult schedules. Florida is slightly better in yards-per-game and scoring margins. That shouldn't equate to a 3.5-point spread, even when factoring in home-field advantage.

I'm buying low on Florida after back-to-back double-digit losses to Georgia and Oklahoma. The last time the Gators were coming off consecutive losses this season, they upset Texas on the road as double-digit underdogs. I also wonder what this spread would look like if Kentucky hadn't converted those two 2-point attempts in overtime against South Carolina and LSU. If the Wildcats were 5-4 instead of 7-2, I'm guessing this line would be closer to a pick'em.

Rob Paul’s expert pick: Kentucky -3.5

Since upsetting Ole Miss, Florida is 1-4 straight-up and against the spread, with Jon Sumrall once again making a QB change (back to Aaron Philo) to try to remedy the situation. But even if Florida can consistently score against a Kentucky defense ranked 21st nationally in havoc rate and seventh in interceptions (12), its defense will kill its hope of an upset.

Florida's defense is so bad it made John Mateer look good in the Swamp last week. Maybe it was an Oklahoma dead-cat bounce on offense with Ben Arbuckle fired and Jason Witten taking over, but I'm fading this Gators defense against Sumrall's alma mater.

Kentucky has one of the best offensive lines in the country and ranks 16th nationally in offensive success rate (49.2%). While Kenny Minchey isn't the most dynamic passer in the country, he is efficient, ranking Top 15 in the Power Four in adjusted completion percentage (77.8%). Efficiency is all the Wildcats' offense needs against a Florida defense ranked 132nd in third/fourth-down success allowed (54.8%), 122nd in defensive success rate (48.2%), and 98th in available yards percentage.

Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Florida +3.5

Some may view last week's ugly loss to Tennessee as a letdown spot, but I think it was more regression to the mean after how fortunate the Wildcats have been this season. Prior to last week, Kentucky had won six straight games, including two overtime victories and four outright wins as an underdog.

Florida catching 3.5 points feels like a lot, and the Gators should be able to keep this one interesting.

Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Over 52.5

Florida's quarterback situation has been a mess, but Aaron Philo's return could wake up the Gators after scoring 15 points against Georgia and Oklahoma. Kentucky isn't shutting teams down, allowing 238 passing yards per game and points on nine of every 10 opponent trips inside the 20. Kenny Minchey gets a Florida defense allowing nearly 28 points per game. I'm backing both offenses to do enough to clear 52.5.

Florida vs Kentucky odds for Saturday

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