Texas vs LSU   Picks & Props

In a matchup between two sporadic QBs and two elite defenses, I'd play the Under at 45.5 or better. Texas is ranked No. 1 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play on defense and fully has Colin Simmons back. LSU is third nationally in sacks (36) and fourth in havoc rate (22.2%). This is going to be a defensive slugfest.

Arch Manning has thrown for six touchdowns over his last two games and gets a chance to keep rolling against LSU. Texas ranks ninth nationally in red zone scoring, and Manning has shown the ability to deliver multiple touchdowns. There's also some plus-value potential if you're feeling frisky and chasing 3+.

Sam Leavitt averages 283.7 passing yards per game. He's been on a heater as his receiving options have emerged in full (looking at you, Jackson Harris and Trey'Dez Green), upping his production to 333 yards per game across his last four contests.

Arch Manning faces a tough LSU pass defense, but the Tigers haven't faced many quality quarterbacks this season. With Texas potentially playing from behind, Manning should have plenty of opportunities to throw. 

Sam Leavitt faces one of his toughest tests against LSU's defense, but the Tigers' fast pace and high pass-attempt volume should create plenty of opportunities through the air. Despite the Covers projections leaning toward the under, I expect a higher-scoring game and enough passing volume for Leavitt to get his opportunities.

This is the best defense LSU has faced this season, and I would take the Tigers' team total Under at 24.5 or better. Texas' defense is ranked  No. 5 in success rate (36.6%) and No. 11 in havoc rate (20%). LSU has struggled to score in high-profile games, putting up 24 against Ole Miss and 13 against Alabama.