Florida vs Kentucky Prediction, Top Picks & Odds Today: College Football Week 11

Jon Sumrall returns to Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky., today, Saturday, Nov. 14, at 6:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) when his Florida program takes on his alma mater, Kentucky.

The Wildcats are 3.5-point home favorites, and my Florida vs. Kentucky prediction and college football picks expect Will Stein's team to win this game in the trenches.

See the latest Florida-Kentucky lines on Kalshi, where Kentucky carries a 59% win probability, plus our Week 11 Top Picks and Brad Powers' Week 11 predictions.

Who will win Florida vs Kentucky today: Kentucky -3.5

After a hot September that had Florida ranked in the top 10 and climbing the college football national championship odds, the Gators have been one of the worst teams in the SEC.

Since upsetting Ole Miss, Florida is 1-4 straight-up and against the spread, and its struggles will continue against Jon Sumrall's alma mater. I would take Kentucky to cover up to -4.5.

Florida is coming off its worst loss of the season, losing 23-17 at home to Oklahoma as a 3.5-point favorite, and switching back to Aaron Philo at QB won't save a team that's averaging 15.6 points per game since the start of October. The last time we saw Philo, he was benched in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.

Kentucky's defense isn't Georgia's, but it is disruptive enough to slow Florida down. The Wildcats rank 21st nationally in havoc rate (18.9%) and seventh in interceptions (12).

See our college football picks against the spread for more Week 11 sides.

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TOP PICK
Florida vs Kentucky Over/Under pick today: Over 52.5

Florida's defense has been the death of it all season, and it hit an all-time low last week, making John Mateer look good. Kentucky's offense is far more efficient, and the reason I'd play the Over at 52.5 or better.

The Wildcats have one of the best offensive lines in the country, paving the way for a unit ranked 16th nationally in success rate (49.2%). With Kenny Minchey's efficiency (77.8% adjusted completion percentage) and the Wildcats' advantage on the line, they shouldn't have trouble converting on money downs against a defense sitting 132nd in third/fourth down success rate (54.8%).

However, the Gators will move the ball too against a Kentucky defense that struggles to stop the run. The Wildcats are currently 96th in defensive success rate (45.8%), and Florida running back Jadan Baugh ranks top 10 nationally in forced missed tackles (48).

See our college football Over/Under picks for more Week 11 totals.

COVERS INTEL: Florida has one of the worst defenses in the Power Four, ranking 122nd in defensive success rate (48.2%), 101st in EPA per dropback, 95th in EPA per rush, and 98th in available yards percentage.

Florida vs Kentucky prop: Kentucky team total Over 27.5

The Gators gave up 23 points to an Oklahoma offense that ranks outside the top 100 in success rate (41%) in interim offensive coordinator Jason Witten's first game calling plays. I expect Will Stein and Joe Sloan to have something cooked up for this Florida defense and would play Kentucky's team total Over at 28.5 or better.

Florida is allowing 32.4 points per game in SEC play and has given up 38+ points three times. While I don't expect Kentucky to do that much damage, the Wildcats should approach 30 points behind an offensive line led by likely All-American Lance Heard.

With the three-headed running back room of CJ Baxter, Jason Patterson, and Jovantae Barnes (combined 1,246 rushing yards, 12 TDs, and 47 forced missed tackles), Kentucky can bully a Florida defense with five starters who have a higher-than-18 % missed-tackle rate.

Florida vs Kentucky combo

During Florida's skid, its biggest issue has been slow starts. In its five games since the start of October, the Gators have trailed by 6+ points at halftime in each. Florida won and covered in just one of those games.

If that trend continues, Kentucky should pull away in the second half, especially with Florida's defensive issues. Earlier in the season, the Gators could make up for the fact that their defense has one of the worst secondaries in the country, but since losing top wide receiver Vernell Brown III, they haven't been the same.

The sophomore was averaging 3.87 yards per route run with zero drops; Florida's other starting receivers each have a drop rate of at least 7.7%. Brown hasn't played since the upset win over Ole Miss and is once again listed out on the SEC injury report.

See our college football Top 25 predictions for more on today's marquee matchups.

Florida vs Kentucky combo

• Kentucky -3.5
• Over 52.5
• Kentucky first half -2.5

Florida vs Kentucky market trends

Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Florida vs. Kentucky prediction.

Florida vs Kentucky odds today

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

• Spread: Florida +3.5 | Kentucky -3.5
• Over/Under: Over 52.5 (50%) | Under 52.5 (50%)
• Moneyline: Florida 41% | Kentucky 59%

Follow the Florida vs. Kentucky market prices on Kalshi up to kickoff. See our college football moneyline picks for more win probabilities.

See our college football odds board for the full slate of college football matchups.

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Florida vs Kentucky weather

Weather isn't expected to have an effect on the game in Lexington, Ky., this evening.

See our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.

Florida vs Kentucky trend to know

Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in SEC play this season. Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs. Kentucky, and see our college football AI predictions.

How to watch Florida vs Kentucky

Florida vs Kentucky latest injuries

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