My Baylor vs. BYU prediction targets potential cracks in the Cougars' armor, with the spread and total offering intriguing opportunities.
Kickoff is today, Saturday, Nov. 14, at 7 p.m. ET (FOX) at LaVell Edwards Stadium, with BYU sitting as a 7.5-point favorite and the total set at 48.5. The game was moved from 3:30 p.m. ET after Friday's FAA ground stop.
Read all about it in my college football picks for Week 11. See the latest Baylor-BYU lines on Kalshi, where BYU carries a 74% win probability, plus our Week 11 Top Picks and Brad Powers' Week 11 predictions.
TOP PICK
Who will win Baylor vs BYU today: Baylor +7.5
I'm on Baylor +7.5, down to +6.5, because it keeps outperforming market expectations — especially on the road — and BYU could be vulnerable to a letdown after losing last week's Holy War.
Baylor is 6-3 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread, including 3-0 ATS on the road with a +23.2 spread differential. The Bears are also 5-1 ATS in Big 12 play with a +9.7 spread differential, while BYU has failed to cover three straight since upsetting Notre Dame.
The gap between these teams isn't as wide as the rankings suggest.
GameOnPaper has Baylor 29th nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play and BYU 17th, while Bill Connelly's SP+ makes the Cougars only 5.4-point favorites.
See our college football underdog picks and upset predictions and our picks against the spread for more Week 11 sides.
COVERS INTEL: Baylor can neutralize two of BYU's biggest strengths: Converting on third down and its ground game. The Bears rank 34th nationally in defensive passing-down success rate, and 18th in yards per rush allowed.
Baylor vs BYU Over/Under pick today: Under 48.5
Give me the Under 48.5, down to 47.5. Rain could make conditions defense-friendly in Provo, but the bigger edge is that both defenses can make the offenses one-dimensional.
Baylor is stout against the run, and BYU ranks 24th nationally in yards per carry allowed. Both defenses also hold advantages in explosive-play rates and line yards per snap against the opposing offenses. That should make sustained drives tougher and limit quick scores.
Both offenses rank 108th nationally in red-zone scoring rate, so they could settle for field goals or flip a coin on fourth downs rather than getting in the end zone.
See our college football Over/Under picks for more Week 11 totals.
Baylor vs BYU combo
I'm expecting a rock fight in Provo, with Baylor hanging around from start to finish. BYU's methodical offense and both teams' inability to finish drives should keep the scoreboard from getting out of hand.
Plus, the Bears have consistently punched above their weight on the road, and I'm not convinced the Cougars deserve this much respect from the market.
If Baylor's defense forces BYU to grind out points, there's a good chance all three legs cash together.
See our college football Top 25 predictions for more on today's marquee matchups.
Baylor vs BYU combo
- Bears +7.5
- Under 48.5
- Baylor +4.5 first half
Baylor vs BYU prop: Baylor +4.5 first half
I'm interested in Baylor +4.5 in the first half, down to +3.5, since three is a key number.
The Bears have covered their first-half spread in five straight road games and are allowing just 8.8 first-half points per game against FBS opponents.
Neither offense is particularly explosive, and the Cougars are 123rd nationally in seconds per play on offense, so I don't expect either team to build a big early lead. Baylor's first-half defensive performance gives me another reason to take the points.
Baylor vs BYU market trends
Here is how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Baylor vs. BYU prediction.
- Top picks: 18-24, -7.40 units
- Combos: 4-38, -21.30 units
More Week 11 college football picks and predictions
- Week 11 college football Top Picks for Saturday, Nov. 14: Top pick from every game preview
- College football predictions Week 11: Brad Powers' CFB picks
- Week 11 college football AI predictions
- College football Top 25 predictions Week 11: watchability ratings and picks
- College football Week 11 picks against the spread
- College football Week 11 moneyline picks
- College football Over/Under picks: Week 11
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 11
- College football player props: Week 11
- Our favorite college football Group of 6 predictions: Week 11
Baylor vs BYU odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Baylor +7.5 | BYU -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (53%) | Under 48.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Baylor 30% | BYU 74%
Follow the Baylor vs. BYU market prices on Kalshi up to kickoff. See our college football moneyline picks for more win probabilities.
See our college football odds board for the full slate of college football matchups.
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Baylor vs BYU weather
The weather forecast projects temperatures in the mid-40s, with a strong chance of rain (69.0%) and a 4 mph wind.
See our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Baylor vs BYU trend to know
The Bears have covered all three of their games as an underdog this season by an average of +15.2 ppg. Find more college football betting trends for Baylor vs. BYU, and see our college football AI predictions.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
How to watch Baylor vs BYU
| Location | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah |
| Date | Today, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7 p.m. ET (moved from 3:30 p.m. ET) |
| TV | FOX |
Baylor vs BYU latest injuries
See our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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