Texas is finding ways to win, LSU is desperate to bounce back, and Saturday night's showdown in Baton Rouge has major College Football Playoff implications.
The Longhorns arrive with three straight victories, while the Tigers are looking to recover from an ugly 31-13 loss to Alabama. Both teams have defenses capable of taking over a game, but there are plenty of questions surrounding their offenses.
Our Texas vs LSU expert picks reflect that uncertainty. Brad Powers is backing the Tigers at home, Rob Paul expects a defensive battle, and Chris Vasile sees an opportunity for Arch Manning and the Longhorns to pull off the upset.
Read on for our best bets and college football picks for Saturday, November 14.
Texas vs LSU expert picks for Saturday
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| Expert pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: LSU -3.5 |
53% |
 Rob Paul: Under 46.5 |
51% |
 Chris Vasile: Texas ML |
38% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers' expert pick: LSU -3.5
LSU has more urgency. A loss eliminates the Tigers from the playoffs, while Texas probably survives a loss. LSU lost by 18 at home to Alabama, an unacceptable performance, but still outgained the Crimson Tide by 172 yards. The Tigers are No. 1 in the country in yards-per-game margin at +243. They also have better yards-per-play, yards-per-game, and points-per-game margins than Texas.
Texas was healthier than expected last week, but I still wasn't overly impressed. The Longhorns trailed Missouri 20-13 late in the third quarter and benefited from five replay reviews.
Rob Paul's expert pick: Under 46.5
Pick your poison: Arch Manning or Sam Leavitt. I prefer to trust these defenses to keep doing what they've been doing all season: completely wrecking opponents.
LSU has one of the most disruptive defenses in college football, ranking third nationally in sacks (36) and fourth in havoc rate (22.2%). Without Trevor Goosby, Texas' offensive line has looked even worse, and Manning is a complete wildcard under pressure. He has the 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate (4%) and the fifth-highest pressure-to-sack rate in the Power Four (27.2%).
Luckily for Texas fans, their defense can keep them in any game, with Will Muschamp's unit ranking No. 1 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play (-0.29) and No. 5 in success rate (36.6%). The Longhorns also get Colin Simmons back in full force after he had 26 pressures, 16 tackles for loss, and 10.5 sacks in the first six games of the season.
Good luck to Leavitt against Simmons and Co. The Tigers QB threw as many touchdowns as interceptions (three apiece) and was sacked nine times, with a 21.1% pressure-to-sack rate, in LSU's three games this season against currently ranked programs.
Chris Vasile's expert pick: Texas ML
I'm not writing Texas off because LSU can rush the passer. The Longhorns have beaten four ranked teams this season, and Arch Manning just completed 28 of 38 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns at Missouri.
Cam Coleman is expected back, giving Manning another weapon. LSU moved the ball against Alabama but scored only 13 points. Texas has already shown it can win these tight games on the road.
Texas vs LSU odds for Saturday
How to watch Texas vs LSU
| Location | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| ABC | ABC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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