My Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction and college football picks back Darian Mensah to keep things close without his top target, Malachi Toney.
The Fighting Irish are 7.5-point home favorites as Miami visits Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Ind., on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC, with College GameDay also in town.
Miami vs Notre Dame predictions for Week 10
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| ⭐Spread prediction | Miami +7.5 |
| Over/Under prediction | Over 54.5 |
| Prop prediction | Miami TT Over 23.5 |
| Combo | 4.13x |
TOP PICK
Who will win Miami vs Notre Dame today: Miami +7.5
The news that Malachi Toney was injured in practice this week and won't play against Notre Dame has dominated headlines and shifted the Fighting Irish from 5.5-point favorites to 7.5-point favorites. But even without Toney, I like Miami to cover +6.5 or better on the road.
Darian Mensah is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for a reason; he leads the country in QBR (90.3) and adjusted completion percentage (86.2%). He also has one of the best running back duos in college football and a No. 2 wide receiver in Cooper Barkate, whom he trusts immensely. Mensah won the ACC Championship at Duke last year with Barkate as his top receiver (1,106 receiving yards).
Even without Toney, Miami has more talented playmakers than CJ Carr and Notre Dame, and the Irish aren't healthy in their back seven. Notre Dame has ruled out linebacker Drayk Bowen, safety Tae Johnson, and cornerback DJ McKinney.
COVERS INTEL: Shannon Dawson's offense at Miami has the most efficient passing attack in college football, ranking No. 1 nationally in pass success rate (59.2%). Notre Dame is down two NFL-caliber starters in its secondary (Johnson, McKinney) and ranks outside the top 30 in pass success rate on defense (41%).Miami vs Notre Dame Over/Under pick: Over 54.5
With Mensah and Carr arguably the top two QBs in college football this season, I would play the Over at 55.5 or better, even with Toney out. Mensah is deadly accurate and ranks No. 1 in college football in TD passes (25), with Miami ranking No. 2 in the country in offensive success rate (52.4%).
Notre Dame isn't far behind, though, sitting No. 4 in offensive success rate (51.4%) thanks to Carr, who ranks eighth in QBR (82.6), 11th in big-time throw rate (6.9%), and 18th in TD passes (18).
Miami's pass defense has also been suspect at times, and Carr can take advantage. The Hurricanes are ranked just 110th in EPA per dropback.
In the Fighting Irish's previous two games against teams ranked in the Top 50 by SP+, they hit the Over.
Miami vs Notre Dame prop: Miami TT Over 23.5
Toney is one of the best wide receivers in recent college football history, but Miami's offense has been a force with Mensah at QB and Dawson calling plays, and I don't think it will just collapse without its top receiver.
I like the Hurricanes to hit the Over on their team total at 23.5 or better against a Notre Dame defense that allowed 28 points to BYU without its best offensive player, LJ Martin.
Miami's passing attack is far more prolific than BYU's, with Miami's offense leading the country in EPA per dropback and net adjusted EPA per play. Notre Dame's defense has also been shaky on money downs this season, ranking 67th nationally in third/fourth down success rate (43.6%).
Miami vs Notre Dame combo
This is the "game of the century" of the week in college football and the No. 1 must-watch matchup in my Week 10 Top 25 predictions, featuring the season's most loaded slate.
While Miami would certainly be an upset threat to Notre Dame with Toney, I don't think Mario Cristobal's team will roll over in its biggest game of the season. The Hurricanes ended last season by covering the spread in four straight College Football Playoff games, including three as an underdog.
Cristobal knows how to get his team up, and Notre Dame has had slow starts in three of its last four games, failing to cover in all three of those games as a favorite.
Miami vs Notre Dame combo
- Miami +7.5
- Over 54.5
- Miami first half +4.5
- Top picks: 20-16, +1.39 units
- Combos: 8-28, -1.78 units
Miami vs Notre Dame odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Miami +7.5 | Notre Dame -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (50%) | Under 54.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Miami 30% | Notre Dame 70%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
More Covers college football betting tools
Miami vs Notre Dame weather
Weather isn't expected to have an effect on this matchup in South Bend on Saturday night.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Miami vs Notre Dame trend to know
Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs. Notre Dame.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
More Week 10 college football picks and predictions
- Brad Powers' Week 10 college football predictions
- College football AI predictions: Week 10
- College football Week 10 picks against the spread
- College football Week 10 moneyline picks
- College football Over/Under picks: Week 10
- Best college football parlays and combos: Week 10
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 10
- College football Top 25 predictions: Week 10
- College football Group of 6 predictions: Week 10
- College football anytime touchdown picks: Week 10
- College football player props: Week 10
- College football prop projections
- Free college football picks
How to watch Miami vs Notre Dame today
| Location | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Ind. |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Miami vs Notre Dame latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
