My Air Force vs. Army prediction is for both teams to run wild and hit the Over when two service academies looking to improve their bowl positioning meet at West Point, N.Y., on Saturday, Nov. 7.
Neither defense has stopped much of anything this season. Let's break down my college football picks for tonight, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Air Force vs Army predictions for Week 10
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Who will win Air Force vs Army today: Air Force
These service academies aren't playing much defense this year, and Army has been especially leaky. Army has allowed 25.5 points per game, and is permitting opponents to rack up 6.6 yards per play. The Black Knights also haven't been good against the run, giving up 152.4 yards per game on the ground.
That's welcome news for Air Force, which leads all FBS squads in rushing attempts per game (64.6) and ranks second in rushing yards per contest (341.0). The Falcons field five different players with 390-plus yards on the ground this year, with quarterback Evan Medders averaging 6.7 yards per carry and running back Rocco Conti right behind him at 6.4 yards per rush.
Medders is recovering from a turf toe injury and his status is uncertain, though he hasn't been ruled out yet.
This is a matchup nightmare for Army, and Air Force should pound the ball on the ground at will. I like Air Force to win outright at up to 50%.
TOP PICK
Air Force vs Army Over/Under pick: Over 46.5
We can't expect much from the Army defense in this matchup, but don't assume Air Force will shut down the Black Knights, either. Air Force ranks 108th in adjusted defensive EPA (0.09), and the Falcons allow a poor 4.6 yards per run.
Army can take advantage of that, as it leads the nation in both rushing yards (342.5 per game) and yards per rush (6.4). That's allowed the Black Knights to put up 33.6 ppg themselves this season.
Air Force's defense isn't quite as disastrous as Army's unit, which is why I like them to win, but both teams will score. I like the Over up to 48.5 points.
COVERS INTEL: Army ranks 136th of 138 FBS teams in adjusted EPA per play on defense (0.23), and is 133rd in defensive EPA per rush (0.23).Air Force vs Army combo
The key markets I'm targeting for this game are the Over and Air Force, and that makes a good base for a combo. I'm throwing in a play on the Falcons to also win the first half.
There won't be any surprises in this matchup. Both teams will line up and run the ball at each other, and I don't see a way for Army to stop that approach from Air Force. Without major halftime adjustments or other factors to make me think the two halves will play out differently, I love the Falcons on the moneyline for the first half as well.
Air Force vs Army combo
- Air Force ML
- Over 46.5
- Air Force 1st Half ML
Air Force vs Army prop: Army Over 23.5
The Over on both team totals will hit, though I'm highlighting the Army prop here because that's not the side I'm picking to win. Taking the Over on both teams is a fine way to play this game, as I expect the final score to go well above the overall total.
The Black Knights have scored over 23.5 points in five of their first eight games, and no opponent has held them below 20 points, even solid ones like Tulane or Memphis.
Trust both teams to hit the Over in this one. I'm taking Army's scoring prop at up to 58% probability.
Air Force vs Army market trends
Here is how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Air Force vs. Army prediction.
- Top picks: 4-2, +1.67 units
- Combos: 1-5, +0.30 units
Air Force vs Army odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Air Force +3.5 | Army -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (46%) | Under 43.5 (55%)
- Moneyline: Air Force 38% | Army 62%
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Air Force vs Army weather
The cool and clear weather should be excellent for this game, and a mild wind will have no impact on the already limited passing attacks.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Air Force vs Army trend to know
The Over is 7-2 in Army's last nine games. Find more college football betting trends for Air Force vs. Army.
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How to watch Air Force vs Army today
| Location | Michie Stadium, West Point, N.Y. |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Air Force vs Army latest injuries
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