College Football AI Predictions Week 10: ATS Picks & Score Predictions for Every Game

New Mexico can take control on the ground without turning this into a track meet. The Lobos average 213.1 rushing yards behind Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley, while their defense allows only 81.6 per game. That puts the pressure on a Wolf Pack offense coming off a 176-yard, scoreless afternoon against UCLA. Nevada's stingy pass defense deserves respect, but New Mexico has less reason to test it repeatedly with Humphrey already at 11 rushing touchdowns. A 27-14 win gives the Lobos room to cover -9.5 without matching their 35-point season scoring average. Over 38.5 still fits a low-scoring game: Nevada only needs a modest offensive rebound to help a 41-point projection get there.

Noah Fifita has the more convincing route to explosive plays in this matchup. Isaiah Mizell has piled up 499 receiving yards and four touchdowns over three straight 100-yard games, giving Arizona a weapon TCU cannot afford to lose track of. The Horned Frogs needed a defensive touchdown and Jaden Craig's legs to escape Kansas 22-16; Craig threw for only 141 yards on 29 attempts, although his 87 rushing yards kept drives alive. Making him win through conventional dropbacks rather than scrambles would go a long way toward the projected 26-14 Wildcats victory. Arizona -7.5 fits that separation, while TCU's inability to exceed 22 points in any conference game makes Under 44.5 reasonable despite Mizell's recent fireworks.

Missouri's upset path starts with patience, because Texas is unlikely to give away easy yards. The Longhorns held Mississippi State to 187 yards and have limited all five SEC opponents to season lows in yards per play. Jamal Roberts gives the Tigers a way to keep working at that defense: his 138-yard performance against Arkansas pushed him past 1,000 for the season. Missouri also held the Razorbacks to 59 rushing yards, so neither offense has an obvious shortcut. Chris Gregory backs Texas -2.5 in our Week 10 ATS picks, but the model sees the home team surviving 20-19. That makes Missouri +2.5 the side, with Under 43.5 fitting a game where sustained drives should be hard-earned.

Utah's running game gives it a way to dictate the Holy War instead of simply surviving it. Devon Dampier's mobility stretches the defense's responsibilities, and the Utes arrive after scoring 49 at Cincinnati with six of their eight wins coming by at least 14 points. Rob Paul highlights the misdirection around Dampier and Wayshawn Parker in his BYU vs. Utah predictions, although his willingness to lay more than 4.5 depends on whether LJ Martin plays for the Cougars. That uncertainty matters to BYU's ability to sustain drives and keep Dampier watching. The model is more decisive at 31-20, supporting Utah -5.5 and Over 48.5, with enough scoring from the Cougars to complement another productive Utes afternoon.

UCLA's defense can win this game without a big afternoon from its quarterback. The Bruins held Nevada to 176 yards in a shutout, their fourth time keeping an opponent below 200 this season. Ty Dieffenbach threw for 178 yards in his third start, so expecting the defense to carry another substantial share makes sense. Minnesota nearly upset Indiana before falling in overtime, but Drake Lindsey needed 37 attempts to produce 120 passing yards. Chris Gregory also backs UCLA -5.5 in our Week 10 ATS picks. The model's 23-17 score lands on the same side, though both the spread and Over 39.5 clear by only half a point. A low-scoring game and an Over can coexist at this number.

South Carolina has the momentum, but Texas A&M has a route to staying inside a touchdown. The Gamecocks closed October with three straight wins, and LaNorris Sellers' 603 rushing yards show why simply covering his receivers will not solve this offense. The Aggies have had a bye to prepare for that added running threat. On the other side, KJ Edwards' 6.5 yards per carry offers a way to sustain possessions and limit how often Sellers gets the ball. The model still favors South Carolina 28-23, so Texas A&M +7.5 does not require the visitors to reverse the Gamecocks' recent form completely. Under 51.5 is much thinner: the projected 51 points leave only half a point of room for an extra score.

LSU's recent improvement makes it a credible favorite, but the model stops short of a comfortable win. Sam Leavitt threw for 387 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Auburn, with Jackson Harris supplying 178 receiving yards and two scores. LSU also produced seven sacks, giving the Tigers a second way to tilt the game if their offense cools. Rob Paul backs LSU -5.5 and Under 52.5 in his Alabama vs. LSU predictions. Our 28-24 forecast agrees on the winner but gives Alabama enough credit to take the points at +5.5. The total agreement deserves less enthusiasm: 52 projected points sit just half a point below the market, leaving little protection against one additional scoring opportunity.

Houston's third-down offense is the clearest mismatch in this game. The Cougars convert 60% of those opportunities, while Cincinnati allows opponents to move the chains 43.9% of the time. That gives Conner Weigman's offense a path to extended possessions without relying entirely on explosive plays. The Bearcats have their own answer in Cole Tabb, who has averaged 140.1 rushing yards over his last three games, but Houston allows only 100.5 per game on the ground. Keeping Tabb from controlling the afternoon is central to the projected 35-23 home win. Houston -11.5 clears by just half a point, making late Cincinnati scoring a real concern. Under 62.5 has more room at the model's 58-point total.

Wake Forest’s rushing depth makes this an awkward matchup for Merrimack. The Demon Deacons piled up 309 rushing yards in their 51–7 demolition of Virginia, while Gio Lopez has accounted for 24 touchdowns with only one interception this season. That balance leaves the Warriors with more to defend than a few deep shots. Merrimack quarterback AJ Hairston Jr. supplied 55 rushing yards and both touchdowns in a 19–14 win over Wagner, but sustaining those drives against this front is a different challenge. The 56–3 projection backs Wake Forest -47.5, with the favorite supplying nearly all the scoring. Under 59.5 has just half a point to spare, so a late Warriors touchdown could easily spoil that side.

Ohio State needs touchdowns from drives it is already sustaining. The Buckeyes gained 464 yards at USC, including 204 on the ground, but came away with only 18 points in Luke Fahey’s first start. Better finishing would help the freshman far more than asking him to win a passing contest. That matters because Dylan Raiola just threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern, making Oregon’s projected 17 points a demanding defensive assignment. Chris Gregory takes Oregon +7.5, citing the Buckeyes’ red-zone problems. Our 31–17 forecast instead backs Ohio State -7.5 and Over 46.5, but the 48-point total leaves little room for another afternoon of field goals.

Boise State’s 48-point projection comes with a real quarterback question. Maddux Madsen is day-to-day with a knee injury, although Max Cutforth’s three late touchdown passes in the 46–45 escape against Texas State showed the Broncos can still strike quickly with their backup. Colorado State offers a path to balance after allowing 247 rushing yards at Utah State, so Boise State should not need to live entirely through the air. The Rams scored only 14 in that loss, however, making their projected rebound to 28 important to the Over. The 48–28 score supports Boise State -17.5 and Over 68.5; shaky defensive performances fit the scoring angle, while Madsen’s availability keeps the favorite’s offensive ceiling uncertain.

Kentucky’s ball security makes Tennessee earn this margin. Kenny Minchey has thrown just one interception in 232 attempts, and the Wildcats have held three straight SEC opponents below 100 rushing yards. Those are useful ingredients for keeping a rested Tennessee team from separating. The Volunteers’ 26–10 win over Alabama in their last home appearance shows what their defense can do, but Josh Heupel has left his starting-quarterback decision open through the practice week. Chris Gregory prefers Kentucky +6.5; our 31–20 forecast asks Tennessee to produce considerably more offense. The model backs Tennessee -6.5, while Over 50.5 is only a half-point lean and particularly sensitive to any offensive hesitation.

Trinidad Chambliss has a chance to make Georgia uncomfortable if his protection holds. Ole Miss has allowed just one sack across its last three games, setting up a compelling test against a Bulldogs defense with 26 sacks. Keeping Chambliss upright matters more than trying to overpower Georgia on the ground; he has averaged 312.5 passing yards in his two meetings with the Bulldogs. Georgia can answer with a rushing attack averaging 5.9 yards per carry, giving both sides a clear route to sustained offense. Chris Vasile backs the Rebels outright, while our 29–28 projection stops just short of the upset. Ole Miss +3.5 gets the nod, with Over 56.5 a much thinner half-point preference.

Notre Dame has enough ways to score to turn this into a shootout. Nolan James Jr. needed only nine carries for 107 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Navy, giving CJ Carr a ground-game threat that can punish a defense focused on the pass. Miami brings its own answers: Darian Mensah threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns at North Carolina, but the Hurricanes still needed every bit of a 38–35 win. Rob Paul likes Miami +5.5 and the Over, with his total lean playable through 57.5. Our 35–29 forecast lands on Notre Dame -5.5 by only half a point, making Over 57.5 the clearer fit with the expected back-and-forth scoring.

Iowa’s run defense can take away Northwestern’s easiest escape route. Aidan Chiles rushed for 93 yards alongside his 281 passing yards at Oregon, so containing the quarterback is central to slowing the Wildcats. The Hawkeyes allow only 79 rushing yards and 12.5 points per game, and their 30–0 win over Wisconsin also featured an encouraging 20-for-24 passing performance from Hank Brown. Iowa does not need a sudden offensive explosion if it forces Northwestern into longer passing downs and protects its own possessions. The 21–20 projection favors Iowa +2.5 and Under 45.5, with Chiles’ ability to extend drives the clearest threat to that controlled, low-scoring script.

Florida’s quarterback turbulence makes a large winning margin harder to trust. Aaron Philo threw two interceptions before Tramell Jones Jr. replaced him against Georgia, and the Gators finished with four turnovers and only 252 yards. Their defense offered more encouragement, holding the Bulldogs to 318 yards despite repeatedly dealing with poor situations. Oklahoma’s attack needs improvement, too: 241 of its 359 yards against South Carolina arrived in the fourth quarter, after the game had largely slipped away. That combination makes the Gators’ offensive reset more relevant than home-field advantage alone. Our 24–21 Florida win leaves room for Oklahoma +6.5 and Under 46.5, provided the turnover problems do not hand either side short-field touchdowns.

Texas Tech can force West Virginia away from what it does best. The Mountaineers average 261.6 rushing yards, but the Red Raiders allow only 94.9 and just held Arizona to 17. Winning that collision would leave West Virginia chasing points through the air instead of controlling the game with its ground attack. Texas Tech has its own rushing momentum after J’Koby Williams and Thomas Castellanos both topped 100 yards in a 328-yard team effort. The 44–24 projection backs Texas Tech -16.5 and Over 64.5. The total still needs the Mountaineers to contribute, but the favorite’s ability to create offense with both quarterback and running back gives it a credible path to pulling away.